Be careful what you wish for...
After complaining of no real rain storms this season, we're about to get WHALLOPED this weekend. Interesting theory about Global Warming I heard a few years ago. One thought is that the weather is going to be more extreme. So instead of a random mix of storms throughout the season (i.e. dry spells, average storms, and strong storms), you just get the dry spells and strong storms. Seems as though that's been the case this winter. No real rain to speak of and then BAM! a big one this weekend. But let's talk about the surf first.
Had some fun NW last week and then a little mysto SW this weekend. I saw the small storm forming in the southern hemisphere last week but it looked like it was going to get lost in all the NW we've been having. Well, the NW swells died off this past weekend and look he was left standing- the little SW! A welcome respite to what should have been a flat weekend.
Water temps have been unbelievably nice- in the low 60's- due to the fact we haven't had any strong storms this winter to bring upwelling to our coast. Almost like an El Nino condition but in a non-El Nino year. Tides the next few days will factor in to our storm scenario this weekend as we may get some minor coastal flooding in our low lying areas. We have a high tide around 6' at sunrise, down to -1' after lunch, and back up to 4' around sunset.
Ok- now for the surf. It's pretty small today as evident by the graphic at the top of the blog. Just small SW and NW today for waist high waves. That will all change though starting later on Thursday. By the afternoon we should have some chest high waves around here as the wind picks up from the SE. By Friday morning the wind will be going strong from the S with gusts around 30 mph and the surf slightly overhead from the S stormsurf. By Friday evening we're in full storm mode with gusts to 40mph, dumping rain, and 8'+ surf. Saturday looks to be the same with wind from the WSW, more 30mph wind, and more rain. Surf should peak in the 10'+ range. Sunday the storm exits with dirty water, dropping surf, and gusty WNW winds. All in all a bad weekend for surf. Don't shoot the messenger.
So let's take a look at that storm. Pretty impressive considering we haven't had any real storms the past couple winters. We'll start to get some showers late tomorrow evening into Thursday. But the real soaker is coming Friday and Saturday with the peak looking like Friday evening/Saturday morning. When it's all done, we may get up to 2" of rain at the coast, up to 6" on the foothills, and 2'+ of snow in the local mountains (but the snow level will be above 6,000'). Sunday things clear out but the water will be dirty, NW winds will be blowing, and it will be a total mess. Models then show high pressure building next week for clear skies and mild conditions. As far as our drought goes, we currently sit at 2" of rain and we should be around 8". Even with a good soaking this weekend, at best we'll be end up with 4" of rain- still short by 50% of normal.
In the long range, we have a storm forming today in the southern hemisphere which should give us a quick shot of shoulder high SW towards the middle of next week. Spring must be right around the corner.
We also have more NW building the 2nd half of next week- and if it meets up with that new SW next week- we may have fun combo peaks at the beachbreaks. Jinx! So until then, batten down the hatches this weekend and stay out of the filthy water.
