THE Surf Report

Stop me if you've heard this before: I've got good news and bad news...

SURF:
One cold front/junky NW swell has left the region and another one is on the way. In the meantime though, we have chest high sets from the NW today with an occasional bigger set in SD. Tomorrow looks about waist high+ but clean conditions again.

Sunday charts show another cold front coming through here with breezy WNW winds and building NW windswell. By sundown we should see head high+ sets again- but junky of course. All in all a little bit of everything this weekend.

Water temps are 62 degrees and tides the next few days are about 6' at sunrise, down to -1' at 2pm, and up to 5' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

After the junky conditions on Sunday, we get a brief break on Monday for head high sets from the NW and a building SW about chest high. The SW peaks on Tuesday- just in time for our next cold front and junky conditions.

Look for head high+ NW/SW combo and a bumpy ride into Wednesday.

Once that cleans up by Thursday it's small again but charts show another head high NW headed our way for Friday into the weekend.

WEATHER:

Weak low pressure has exited the region and we have clean conditions today and tomorrow. We then get another weak low pressure system coming through on Sunday for a chance of showers (about 1/10") and breezy NW winds. Monday is a break in-between systems then we get a slightly stronger low pressure system on Tuesday for more showers (about 1/4" this time) and breezy conditions yet again. Things should clean up for nice weather by Thursday. Amazing how our spring has worse weather than our winter!

BEST BET:
Probably next Friday if that if NW on the charts holds up along with the clean weather. Or if you like storm surf- then Sunday or Tuesday. I prefer the empty line ups of stormsurf...
 
NEWS OF THE WEEK:  

An unpleasant conversation for a pleasant weekend- Tsunami's. This week the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is having their annual Tsunami Preparedness Week and since we live at the coast, it's the perfect time to discuss it on the News of the Week. In particular:

What is a tsunami and where do they happen?

A tsunami is a series of large ocean waves usually caused by a major earthquake on the sea floor, a landslide, or volcanic activity. Tsunamis are not affected by tides or currents; a tsunami in the ocean means the whole water column is moving, not just the surface. A tsunami can strike any ocean shoreline. When tsunami waves enter shallow water, they rise to form massive moving water called "runup." Runup, which can be many feet high, then rushes onto shore, striking the coast with tremendous, destructive force.  If you are on the shore and in a low coastal area, you should know that a tsunami could arrive within minutes after the earth shakes. A devastating tsunami can also happen when a major earthquake happens far away. Recent earthquakes in Chile and Japan have caused tsunami strikes in Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and California, causing loss of life and millions of dollars in property damage. The tsunami danger period can continue for many hours as the waters move onto land, recede, and return. Sometimes, the second or third waves are more devastating than the first. A tsunami can occur during any season of the year and at any time, day or night.

What is the best source of information in a tsunami situation?

Listen to local news reports and visit the NOAA/National Weather Service website, tsunami.gov. The International Tsunami Warning System monitors oceans through a network of buoys and scientific instruments. When the instruments detect a major earthquake and the potential for a tsunami to occur, warnings are issued to local authorities who can order the evacuation of low-lying areas, if necessary. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service operates two tsunami warning centers:

•The National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) in Palmer, Alaska, serves all U.S. states except Hawaii. It also serves Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Canada.
•The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) in Ewa Beach, Hawaii, serves Hawaii and the U.S. Pacific territories. It also serves as an international warning center for the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean and South China Seas.
What are the warning signs of a tsunami?
•A strong earthquake, felt in a coastal area, that causes difficulty standing
•A noticeable rapid rise or fall in coastal waters
•A loud roaring sound coming from the ocean

How can I prepare for a tsunami ahead of time?

Find out if your home, school, workplace, or other frequently visited places are in a tsunami hazard area or evacuation zone. If they are:
•Know their height above sea level and their distance from the coast and other high-risk waters. Evacuations may be based on these numbers.
•Plan evacuation routes to safe locations from these places. If possible, pick locations 100 feet (30 meters) above sea level or as far as 2 miles (3 kilometers) inland, away from the coast. If you cannot get this high or far, go as high or far as you can. Every foot inland or upward may make a difference. You should plan to be able to reach a safe location on foot within 15 minutes. An alternative in some areas is "vertical evacuation," which means going to a high floor of a tall building.
•Find out what your school's evacuation plan is. Schools will keep children safe by moving them out of harm's way. Find out where the assembly area is and where you should pick up your children. Do not rush to the school during an evacuation.
•Put together a family emergency plan and a portable disaster supplies kit that is easily accessible and contains basic items you and your family may need in an emergency.
•Practice walking evacuation routes. Familiarity may save your life. Be able to follow your escape route at night and during inclement weather. Practicing your plan will make it easier to understand and to do during an actual emergency.

If you are a coastal visitor, find out about local tsunami safety procedures. For long-lead time warnings, you may be asked to leave by driving away. For short lead-time warnings, you may be able to take refuge in reinforced concrete hotel structures on the third floor or above.

What should I do when a tsunami may happen?

If you are in a coastal area and feel a strong earthquake:
•Drop, cover, and hold on. You should first protect yourself from the earthquake.
•When the shaking stops, move quickly to higher ground away from the coast. A tsunami may be coming within minutes.
•Be prepared for aftershocks, which happen frequently after earthquakes. Each time the earth shakes, drop, cover, and hold on.
•Move to your designated safe location or as far inland and uphill as possible.
During a tsunami watch:
•Use a NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards or listen to local radio or TV for updated information.
•Locate loved-ones and review evacuation plans. Be ready to move quickly if a tsunami warning is issued.

During a tsunami advisory:

•Because of the threat of a potential tsunami that may produce strong currents or waves dangerous to those in or near the water, local officials may close beaches, evacuate harbors and marinas, and ask ships to reposition to deep water. Obey their directions.

During a tsunami warning:

•If you hear a tsunami warning siren, detect signs of a tsunami, or hear about a tsunami warning on the radio or TV, leave immediately.
•Ask neighbors who may need help leaving to come with you and offer assistance.
•Bring pets with you to keep them safe.
•Take your disaster supplies kit. Having supplies will make you more comfortable.
•Move to higher ground as far inland as possible. Watching a tsunami near the shore is dangerous, and it is against the law to remain in an evacuated area.
•Keep listening to NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards or local radio or TV for the latest updates.

What should I do after a tsunami?

•Return home only after local officials tell you it is safe. A tsunami is a series of waves that may continue for hours. Do not assume that after one wave the danger is over. The next wave may be larger than the first.
•Stay away from damaged areas so emergency responders can have full access.
•Stay out of any building that has water around it.
•Be careful reentering buildings or homes. Tsunami-driven floodwater may have damaged buildings.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

This week I salute the groms of the world. Surfer Magazine just came out with their annual Hot 100 and there's all kinds of future world title contenders I've never heard of (until now). Watch the clips to see my point. Plus bonus footage of toy animation ripping- got show your own groms this one- trust me, even you'll be frothing. Plus a mid-week Surf Check and an in-depth THE Surf Report. All that and more in the blog below!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Love coming across these random spots. Not the most firing wave in the world but it's BIG and it's holding. Cool to see good surf outside the usual Oz, US, Hawaii lineups.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Elite
Still On The Aztec Bandwagon
Used Mad Wax By Mistake And Ended Up In Hawaii

Clip of the Day- Groms rule!

Surfer Magazine just came out with their annual 'Hot 100' of the best groms in the world. Jeez those kids are good. Like Yago Dora from Brazil. Haven't heard of him? Me neither. But here's a sneak peak:



Another grom who's just come on to the scene lately is Griffin Colapinto from California. Basically he surfs like he's been on the 'QS for 15 years- except he's only 15.
And in another long line of Maui rippers comes Ian Gentil. He's gotten some press the past few years as he's been ripping since he was like 3 (he's 18 now). Ian throws down some solid turns in secret spots around his home island.

And last but not least, a video not of groms- but for groms. My own grom showed me this video yesterday. It's all time. Like 'taking a heck of a long time' to make. Gotta love the dedication of this filmmaker.

 

Surf Check

Winter is right on time- 4 days after the start of spring! Go figure. Had some fun surf today from the SW with a touch of tiny NW- if you didn't mind the cloudy conditions and SW winds.

Actually had much of the same the past week- some fun off and on NW or SW swells and cloudy/breezy conditions.

Water temps have been a nice 63 degrees and tides are starting to swing again- about 5.5' at sunrise, down to -1' at lunch, and up to 4.5' at sunset.

And if you liked the clouds the past few days then you're going to love the next 7 days. We have a weak low pressure system moving down the coast tonight and we'll get some showers out of it tomorrow- about 1/4" at the coast- and breezy conditions. Should have S winds in the morning about 15mph and peaking at 25mph mid-day from the SW. That clears out Thursday with more 20mph NW winds. High pressure sets up for the weekend though with sunny skies and temps near 70. Models then show another weak cold front coming through late Monday into Tuesday next week.

And along with the weak cold front tomorrow, we'll get some messy NW windswell for surf in the head high range. So yes- there will be surf. And yes- it will be junky.

Once the weak storm exits the region on Friday, the swell will depart with it. Saturday looks small but Sunday we start to get more NW from the next storm headed our way. We should have shoulder high sets by sundown. Monday afternoon looks junky again and we'll have more jumbled overhead NW by Tuesday.

The southern hemisphere is starting to come to life again and we have a small but fun storm on the charts (similar to the current SW we've had in the water this week). That starts to show Monday afternoon with chest high sets here and shoulder high sets in the OC- just in time for that next storm. Darn! Regardless, we have some surf coming our way- if you can handle some showers and breezy conditions.

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Just chillin'.

SURF:
Spring is hear and the waves are not.

Had some solid NW swell earlier this week and since then it's been dropping. Weather has been cool and partly sunny and that's about it.

Look for NW windswell tomorrow with a mix of SW groundswell. Nothing big but we'll have a combo of chest high sets. That should last through Sunday. Water temps are a warm (for early spring) 64 degrees.

Tides the next few days are about 0' at sunrise, 3' at lunch, and down to 2' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

After a small but fun weekend, it's looking tiny for Monday and Tuesday.Charts are showing some NW windswell taking shape for the middle of next week. Look for head high sets going into Thursday. The southern hemisphere unfortunately can't get it's act together just yet.

WEATHER:

Weak low pressure is spinning off central California tonight and it's kicking up our low clouds down here. Look for cloudy skies in the mornings and partly sunny skies in the afternoons this weekend. Weak high pressure sets up for early next week for mostly sunny skies and temps in the high 60's at the beaches. Models are showing low pressure trying to approach southern California the middle of next week and maybe, just maybe, we'll get some showers.

BEST BET:
Not sure- semi clean but small waves this weekend or bigger waves the middle of next week but maybe some showers.
 
NEWS OF THE WEEK:

 
If you read last week’s THE Surf Report, you’ll remember that sea surface temperatures at the equator are warmer than normal right now and as a result we’re on an El Nino watch for the fall. But what about the short term? What’s this spring and summer shaping up to be? According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, they released their Spring Outlook today; drought is expected to continue in California and the Southwest.  That big storm a few weeks ago seems like eons ago. The east coast looks like they’re due for some flooding because of their above-average snowpack, frozen ground and thick ice coverage on streams and rivers- but out here we’re high and dry. The report says significant and widespread drought conditions will continue in California which experienced its warmest and third driest winter on record. Drought is expected to persist or intensify in California, Nevada, most of interior Oregon and Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, southeast Colorado, western Oklahoma, and most of west Texas because of below-average rain or snow this winter and the onset of the dry season in April.  If the drought persists as predicted in the West and Southwest, it will likely result in an active wildfire season, continued stress on crops and livestock due to low water levels, and an expansion of water conservation measures.  Below-normal temperatures this spring are favored for an area from Montana eastward across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes region, while warmer-than-normal temperatures are most likely for western sections of Washington and Oregon, California, the desert Southwest, the southern Plains, the Southeast and all of Alaska. For precipitation, odds favor drier-than-normal conditions for the Alaska panhandle, western Washington and Oregon, California and parts of Nevada and Arizona. Hawaii is favored to be both warmer and wetter than normal this spring. As far as our water temperatures go, there is no official forecast but I can tell you our average is around 60 degrees in San Diego this time of year and current buoy readings are between 63-64; waaaay above our average. And with the spring forecast calling for a lack of storms which would create upwelling and a drop in our water temperatures, we should stay above average heading into summer- meaning trunks may be the call about a month early. AND with the El Nino brewing below, water temps this summer may be waaaay above average- which would help hurricane formation and it would be great to wear trunks a little longer this season. And finally, the warmer air and water temps may help keep the fog at bay this summer. That’s all speculation of course but things are trending in the right direction for a good summer surf season.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Just think if you were a bird and all the cool line ups you'd see. Couldn't surf of course- unless you're a pelican and then you could glide over the crest of waves. Or you could be a duck and duck dive. Or maybe a seagull just sitting in the line up. Anyway, close but no cigar. But it still would be cool to be a bird to fly above all those line ups. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Stalwart
Built the Perfect Bracket
Singing In A GANGajang Tribute Band

Surf Check

Had some fun surf today with a mix of NW windswell, NW groundswell, and some small background SW swell. Sets were head high here and slightly overhead in SD.

We've got both NW swells dropping tonight and tomorrow we'll be left with chest high surf from the NW/SW combo. Nothing too exciting but at least it's rideable. Water temps are still above average with some buoys in southern California reporting 64 degrees- in winter might I add.

Tides the next few days are 2' at sunrise, up to 4' mid-morning, down to 1' late afternoon, and up slightly to 2' at sunset.

Even though we're technically still in the winter season, it's looking a lot like spring around here, which of course is only 3 days away. As is usual with this time of year, we have weak cold fronts moving by to the north and it kicks up our clouds/fog down here. Not much will change the next week as we have low clouds/fog in the morning and hazy afternoon sunshine with temperatures in the mid-60's.

So what's going on with our surf in the coming week? Nothing of substance unfortunately. We have more NW windswell headed our way which will peak on Friday with chest high sets.

We also had a small storm flare up in the southern hemisphere last week which is sending us some SW swell towards Friday through the weekend. It's looking like waist high waves in north county SD and chest high sets in the OC. Beachbreaks may be fun though with the combo swells. Nothing big, but it will keep us from going completely flat.

After the small weekend surf, models show a better storm taking shape in the north Pacific early next week which would give us head high sets from the NW the middle of next week- if the models hold up that is. So until then, look for some small but fun NW and SW swells as well as boring spring like weather.

THE Surf Report

Just the beginning?...

SURF:

Our run of good surf continues. Lots of fun waves the past week and today we have more new NW hitting our beaches for shoulder high sets in north county SD and head high sets in SD.

We get a slight drop into Saturday then we get a reinforcement from the NW on Sunday for head high sets here and overhead sets towards SD. There's also a little waist high SW in the water but will be overrun by all the NW in the water this weekend. Water temps- wait for it- are 63 degrees. Which has more to do with the lack of storms and upwelling of cold water this winter than the supposed building El Nino (more on that below). But regardless- it would be nice to see the trend last until the end of spring and we can wear trunks on June 1st.

Tides the next few days are about 5' at sunrise, 0' mid-afternoon, and up to 4' at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.

FORECAST:

After the good weekend of NW swell we get a building overhead NW on Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

By Thursday it's pretty small around here but models show some small but fun NW showing for next Friday.

On it's heels is a little bump of SW for the OC in the chest high range late next week and a better SW if the models hold late Sunday the 23rd.

WEATHER:

We've had a weak low pressure system hanging around longer than expected the past few days and I was hoping for sunny skies and light offshores already. But we've got another day of low clouds that will last into Saturday morning. By Sunday high pressure finally kicks in and we've got temps near 80 at the beaches and mid-70's on Monday. Yet another low pressure system moves down the west coast late Monday but it will stay inland so we won't get any rain from it- just more clouds and breezy conditions. After that the models show high pressure building again for nice weather the 2nd half of next week.

BEST BET:
Good NW swell on Sunday as well as temps at the beaches near 80. No brainer.
 
NEWS OF THE WEEK:

 
Put a quarter in the hype machine: El Nino is making a comeback. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration put us on watch last week and every major media outlet from the Reno Gazette Journal to the Huffington Post jumped all over it. The LA Times did a clear and concise story so I'm running with them for the purpose of the News of the Week. Long story short, we haven't been walloped by waves and weather in about 15 years (since the 1998 El Nino and the last major one before that was 1983- seeing a pattern here?) so we're about due.

Here's the LA Time's take on NOAA's announcement: "The odds are increasing that El Niño, the powerful climate phenomenon that alters precipitation patterns across the globe, will develop in the Pacific Ocean this year, U.S. government forecasters say. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center activated its alert system on Thursday to issue an El Niño watch.

The alert means that conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific are favorable enough that El Niño has a more than a 50% chance of forming by the summer or fall. Though it’s too early to predict with much confidence, if El Niño re-emerges it could produce wetter weather in the southern United States next winter, bring more rain to California, temper the Atlantic hurricane season and push up global temperatures in 2015, experts say. The El Niño cycle begins every two to seven years when weak trade winds in the Pacific allow warmer water to build up along the west coast of South America. El Niño conditions often result in higher rainfall in California, but not always.

Typically, they cause the jet stream to dip south over North America, directing storms to the California coast and across the southern U.S. La Niña, the cycle's cool-water counterpart, is associated with drier weather in those regions. If El Niño returns this year it would be the first since 2009-10, a moderate episode that was followed by the next season by La Niña. For the past two years the eastern tropical Pacific has remained in neither a cool nor warm state some experts have referred to as "La Nada." Thursday’s forecast by the Center for Climate Prediction and International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University, gave a 52% probability of El Niño developing by the fall, compared with a 41% chance of conditions remaining neutral.

Mike Halpert, acting director of the Climate Prediction Center, said scientists have observed a warming of sub-surface waters that has been “fairly impressive.” “We're seeing a fair amount of evolution towards El Niño below the surface and we're getting some confirmation from a number of our computer models,” he said. “It looks pretty good at this point.” Thursday's El Niño watch follows several months of forecasts based on observations from satellites, buoys and floats and computer models that have shown increasing signs El Niño could return later this year. Halpert cautioned that El Niño forecasts before spring are notoriously unreliable because of volatile ocean and atmospheric conditions.

Predictions made this early in past years, he said, have sometimes failed to play out. The last major El Niño, an unusually powerful episode in 1997-98, brought rainfall more than 200% above normal to Southern California. Powerful storms hit the coast, triggering destructive landslides and floods. With California still in a drought, the state might be more open to the risks posed by El Niño if it meant an influx of needed rain, Halpert said. “For the folks in California, this might be a case where they would welcome that,” he said. “You might take a bit of the bad to refill your reservoirs.”

So there you have it. We've jinxed it and we'll have a dry winter next year with no surf. But I hope NOAA is right.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

It's finally ready. Almost. The Encinitas Community Park is due to open at the end of spring- once the grass grows and the skaters have had their fill BEFORE the park opens. Confused? Read the story on the North County Surf blog. As well as a mid-week Surf Check and an in-depth THE Surf Report- all of that and more in the blog below!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

What floats your boat? The solid drop out the back? The middle carve section? Or the inside grinder? Or are you greedy like me and want all 3? In the immortal words of Gordon Gecko 'Greed, for the lack of a better word, is good'.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Death Defying
Future Lottery Winner
Rick Kane Called Me J.O.J.