Summer's back!
SURF:
And just like that, summer's back! Last week we had small surf, cool water temps, and lingering low clouds. Today we had air temps in the 80's, water temps in the low 70's, solid SW/NW swells, and no clouds in sight. Tomorrow is more of the same with even warmer air temps, slightly bigger SW swell, and the water hanging around 72 degrees.
FORECAST:
After the firing weekend of surf, tropical storm Simon tries to get in the act. Currently it's SW of Baja with 50 mph winds and should peak with minimal hurricane winds of 80mph on Saturday- just as it hits our swell window. Then Simon makes an abrupt turn to the east and rolls into central Baja. I'm hoping we get some waist to chest high surf from Simon on Monday with the OC getting shoulder high waves. After that it's looking pretty small the 2nd half of next week as we're in-between SW and NW swell makers.
WEATHER:
Man was it hot today. And it's getting hotter. Luckily, not that much hotter. Nothing like those brutal May fires. But we still will hit the mid-high 80's at the beach tomorrow and close to 90 on Saturday. All thanks to a strong ridge of high pressure to our east. The high starts to weaken slightly on Sunday for temps in the mid-80's and patchy fog may return late Sunday. By Wednesday, a trough of low pressure sets up shop and we get normal temps in the low 70's again along with night and morning low clouds and fog. Still no rain in sight.
BEST BET:
Tomorrow or Saturday. Trust me- both days will be just as crowded- so pick your poison!
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
So with the upcoming El Nino (allegedly), what do we have in store for October? If we look at the historical overview, provided today by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, they mention October is the last of the ‘dry’ months and is usually a transitional period with variable weather... a mixture that includes weather from the previous dry months with a preview of the upcoming wet months. The normal daily maximum temperature is 72.8 degrees and the normal daily minimum is 60.6 degrees with a mean monthly temperature of 66.7 degrees. Extremes for the month range from 107 degrees in 1961 to 43 degrees in 1971. There are 2 days of measurable rain on the average... including one day of thundershowers. These wet days usually occur late in the month as storm systems from the Pacific Northwest move farther south. The average rainfall is 0.57 inch (think of a quick moving cold front as giving us ¼”, a good shot of rain of being ½”, and real storm drops about 1”; so 0.57 inches usually equates to one good shot or a couple quick cold fronts- not shabby). This is 0.42 of an inch more than September and 0.44 less than November. The greatest monthly total was 4.98 inches in 2004 (think of that as 5 real storms rolling through in the month of October- amazing). The minimum is zero which last occurred in 2009. On October 3, 1858 a category one hurricane struck San Diego... the only documented hurricane to strike the west coast of the United States. October has plenty of sunshine with 68 percent of possible. October averages 14 clear days... 10 partly cloudy and 7 cloudy days. During the month there are an average of 3 days of heavy fog. There is an average of one day of clear dry weather when Santa Ana winds push temperatures into the 90s. Relative humidity averages 75 percent in the early morning, 60 percent near noon, and 62 percent in the late afternoon. Wind speeds average 6.5 mph. The strongest wind for the month occurred on October 20th, 2004 and was from the south at 39 mph. In a nutshell, we should see our first real rain in the coming weeks and with any help from El Nino, we’ll beat the 2004 record of 4.98 inches!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
They call this place the Rich Coast. Guess it takes some money to get there. Or maybe it's all the 5 star hotels in the area. Or maybe the privileged few missing this wave are a bunch of overweight CEO's. I'm thinking it's because this wave is worth a million bucks.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Impervious
Thurston Howell III's Grandson
2015 WSL MVP
