Swell of the CENTURY this weekend!
SURF:
This is a test of the Emergency Boardriding System. If we had real surf coming this weekend, you would have actually seen that alert. But alas, we're going to be on the slow side the next few days. But when we do get overhead surf, by golly you're going to get an ear full from me.
FORECAST:
Fun little waves hang around on Tuesday and Wednesday/Thursday look to be small. BUT... we have a good storm off Antarctica today which will send us good surf late Thursday into the weekend. Might see an overhead set from this one. Jinx! The Lowers contest should be firing. Avoid Trestles at all costs unless you light getting snaked by the top 32. We should also have small background NW swell all week to break up the SW.
WEATHER:
Isn't Labor Day supposed to be the official end of summer party? Then how come our weather will stink this weekend?! We have a weak storm up N which will- you guessed it- kick up the clouds down here. Fog/low clouds will taken longer than expected to burn off at the coast and temps will be slightly below average- just about 70. High pressure should build the middle of next week though for a slight warm up- just in time for that new swell.
BEST BET:
Monday if you're desperate or next Friday with better weather and solid SW swell.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
With the East Coast of the US getting its fair share of hurricane activity this week- not to mention the Hawaiian Islands- I thought us Californians were due for a late season Eastern Pacific update. But first, where exactly is the Eastern Pacific and are we due for more storms this season?
The Eastern Pacific hurricane region covers the Eastern Pacific Ocean east of 140 degrees W- north of the equator. This area is one of the most prolific tropical storm formation regions in the world. Eastern Pacific tropical storms most often track westward over open waters, sometimes reaching Hawaii (as in the case of Madeline and Lester this week) and beyond. However, some storms occasionally head toward the northeast, bringing rainfall to the arid southwestern United States during the summer months (last summer was a good indication of this). Also, during any given season, tropical storms can affect western Mexico or Central America, especially early and late in the season
The official Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th. The peak activity typically occurs during July through September. And based on West Coast water temps, our peak is the end of August- sorry people- we’re headed toward fullsuit season. During the period 1981-2010, the Eastern Pacific seasonal averages were 15.4 named storms (maximum 1-minute surface winds between 39-73 mph), with 8.4 of those becoming hurricanes (maximum 1-minute surface winds of at least 74 mph) and 3.9 becoming major hurricanes (maximum 1-minute surface winds exceeding 111 mph, categories 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale).
Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons exhibit long periods of above- normal and below-normal activity in response to large-scale climate patterns. Seasons also exhibit year-to-year variability in response to ENSO. El Niño contributes to decreased easterly vertical wind shear and favors above-normal hurricane activity in this region. Historically, El Niño is not associated with below-normal seasons. Conversely, La Niña contributes to increased vertical shear and less overall activity. Historically, 60% of La Niña episodes have been associated with below-normal hurricane seasons, and only 28% have produced an above-normal season. However, the ENSO impacts can be strongly influenced by the background climate patterns. As a result, NOAA accounts for the combined influences of both climate factors when making its seasonal hurricane outlooks.
The phrase "total seasonal activity" refers to the collective intensity and duration of eastern Pacific named storms and hurricanes occurring during a given season. The measure of total seasonal activity used by NOAA is called the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index. The ACE index is a wind energy index, defined as the sum of the squares of the maximum sustained surface wind speed (knots) measured every six hours for all eastern Pacific named systems while they are at least tropical storm strength.
Reliable tropical storm and hurricane data for the eastern Pacific began in 1971. The 1981-2010 mean value of the ACE index is 113.3 x 104 kt2, and the median value is 100.4 x 104 kt2. The following season classifications are based on an approximate 3-way partitioning of seasons based on the ACE value, combined with the seasonal number of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes.
Above-normal season: An ACE index above 115 x 104 kt2 (115% of the median) and at least two of the following three conditions: 17 or more named storms, 9 or more hurricanes, and 5 or more major hurricanes.
Near-normal season: An ACE index in the range 80-115 x 104 kt2 (80%-115% of the median), or an ACE value higher than 115 x 104 kt2 but with less than two of the following three conditions being met: 17 or more named storms, 9 or more hurricanes, and 5 or more major hurricanes.
Below-normal season: An ACE index below 80 x 104 kt2 (80% of the median).
That’s all fine and dandy and if you’ve read through all that, then you must have loved school. So now to the good part- where are we at today?
Six named storms formed during the month of August, but only one of these became a hurricane in the Eastern North Pacific basin. The one hurricane, Lester, also became a major hurricane. Although the total number of storms and major hurricanes in August is considered near or above average, the number of actual hurricanes (i.e. not tropical storms) was below average. Based on a 30-year (1981-2010) climatology, three named storms typically form in the basin in August, with two of those becoming hurricanes and one reaching major hurricane intensity.
BUT… in terms of the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), August ACE was near average. Which is a good sign considering forecasters were calling for a below average season as we transitioned from El Nino last spring to La Nina this fall. AND… the ACE for the season to date continues to be well above normal, about 175 percent of the long-term average to date. An average La Nina season (i.e. bad) is 13 named storms and we’ve already had that with a couple months to go. We also should have only had 3 majory hurricanes in a bad year and we’ve had 4 already- with again- a couple months to go. My theory is that the El Nino was so strong and water temperatures so warm the past 2 years, it’s taken the ocean forever to cool down. So there’s still a lot of energy out in the Eastern Pacific to contribute to hurricane formation. Which is a good thing as we go through our last month of the peak season in September.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
My two favorite things in the whole wide world are represented in this photo- waves and weather! Oh- and I also love my wife. Had to include that. Close one there. Oh- and my kids! Almost forgot that too. Whew! And those Hostess apple pies. Man I love those. And finding change in my couch. So rad. And smiling. Smiling is my favorite. I'm off track here. Anyway, have a great Labor Day Weekend.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
On the Up and Up
The Voice of Clarence
Live to Surf. Surf to Live
