THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Swell of the CENTURY last weekend!

SURF:
Was a dud. That's the last time I use the Emergency Boardriding System alert.

Plenty of swell but unfortunately plenty of NW wind. So much wind in fact that our water has dropped to the mid-60's. Right where it should be this time of year but alas no more trunks for you and I. Tomorrow we have small leftover Hurricane Orlene S swell and lingering NW swell for waist high+ surf.

Saturday stays about the same but new small SW starts to fill in towards the evening.

Sunday we have chest high sets as new early season NW groundswell filld in late in the day and mixes with the SW. Long story short, small on Saturday and kind of rideable Sunday.

Tides the next few days are 3' at sunrise, up to 5.5' mid-morning, down to almost 0' mid-afternoon, and up to 4' at sunset.

FORECAST:
The NW mentioned above on Sunday hangs around on Monday while the SW backs off.

Tuesday/Wednesday look small but by Thursday afternoon we start to get some SW again from the southern hemisphere. Last week the forecast models looked impressive but when the storm actually formed, it wasn't that big. So we'll have shoulder high sets towards the OC and chest high waves down here on Friday. That lasts through the weekend. Models also show some NW arriving around the same time too but we'll have to wait and see.  Make sure to keep up to date on any developing storms at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

I'm over these fall-like conditions at the end of summer. Can't fall just wait another week for it's turn?! First our water temps drop then our air temps. Criminy. Looks like we'll have some fun around here the next few days though. First up is strengthening high pressure this weekend which will raise our inland temps to 90 but may trap our fog at the coast for most of the day. The real excitement though is tropical moisture headed our way towards Monday which may bring a stray shower to the coast. Remember the tropical activity in our skies last summer? Think that. Things should clear out mid-week for seasonal temps and night/morning low clouds/fog again. Boring.

BEST BET:
Sunday with small combo swell or late next week with hopefully slightly bigger combo swell.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

I swear. Trying to figure out the weather is like trying to figure out women: It can’t be done. The result is always the same- I’m always the one in the wrong. Take for example our ‘big’ El Nino of 2014. All the signs pointed to a warming Pacific and torrential rains for Southern California- then zilch. Then in 2015 all the signs pointed to a warm Pacific again and the forecasters said ‘this time we’re going to get dumped on down here- trust me’. And then nada. Then we saw the Pacific cooling off this summer and we must be headed towards La Nina this winter, right? Wrong. Latest report from the National Weather Service (NOAA) says the following:

“Since the demise of the big 2015-16 El Niño in April, the tropical Pacific has been loitering around in neutral… and now forecasters think it’s likely to stay that way through the winter. For now, we’re taking down the La Niña Watch, since it no longer looks favorable for La Niña conditions to develop within the next six months.

What happened?
Over the last few months, sea surface temperature anomalies (the departure from the long-term average) have become more negative, which was expected (i.e. trending towards La Nina conditions).  Currently, the sea surface temperatures  are about -0.5° below the long-term average.

But this is the La Niña threshold! However, the second step of the La Niña conditions decision process is “do you think the SST will stay below the threshold for the next several overlapping seasons?” For now, the answer to this question is “no.”

In fact, the climate models are predicting that this month’s anomaly will be the low point, and sea surface temperatures will recover to near average over the next few months. There is still a range of forecasts, but all eight of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble models expect the negative anomalies to weaken toward zero.

What didn’t happen?
Here at the NOAA, we talk a lot about the response of the atmosphere to the change in sea surface temperatures. That’s because both are intertwined. Just like El Niño, La Niña requires an atmospheric response, and it just hasn’t happened over this summer.

For La Nina, even more than usual, cooler air sinks toward the surface over the cooler-than-average waters of the central and eastern Pacific. Meanwhile, the perpetually warm waters near Indonesia warm further, and the overlying air becomes even more warm and buoyant than usual, leading to more vigorous convection (rising air).

These opposing areas of vigorous rising and sinking air amp up the normal circulation across the tropical Pacific: at the surface, stronger-than-average winds blowing east to west, and high up in the atmosphere, corresponding stronger-than-average winds blowing west to east.  More rain falls over Indonesia, and less falls over the Central Pacific.

So far, there have only been some very weak indications of this intensification, like a small area of stronger-than-average upper level winds over a localized region of the central Pacific. Also, some extra rain over western Indonesia, and a narrow, but weak, strip of drier-than-average conditions over the cooler waters of the central Pacific.

But what needs to happen to really get La Niña conditions underway is for those stronger-than-average winds to blow across the surface of the equatorial Pacific, cooling the surface and helping to keep warm waters piled up in the far western Pacific. We’ve seen some weak bursts of this activity over the past few months, but nothing has settled in for the long haul.

Without this atmospheric feedback, the large area of cooler subsurface waters that we saw back in the late spring has decreased substantially. Yes, the surface has cooled, but there’s not much cool subsurface water left to extend or intensify the conditions.

What’s going to happen?
It’s certainly not impossible that La Niña could still develop; forecasters are putting the chances for La Niña somewhere around 40% through the early winter. And, while a strong La Niña developed immediately after the monster 1997/98 El Niño, there was nearly a year of slightly-below-average temperatures following the other monster 1982/83 El Niño before a moderate La Niña eventually developed in October of 1984, further evidence that there are many pathways that the climate system can follow after a large El Niño event.

For now, though, most signs are pointing toward a stronger chance of remaining in neutral conditions for the time being. Between the model consensus and the current lack of atmospheric response, forecasters put the odds of staying Neutral at 55-60%.”

So what does that mean for us in Southern California? 3 things: Our water temps should stay average this winter (in the high 50’s vs. the low to mid-50’s so a 4/3 fullsuit may not be needed), average rainfall around here, about 10” (better than a drought I guess), and average consistency of surf this winter (i.e. not a parade of big storms like El Nino but not flat either). Of course I’ll be wrong on these 3 predictions too.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

If this wave came barrelling down on you, would you paddle faster to the channel? Or be a deer in the headlights?

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
All I Do Is Win
Just Wanted To Give Lochte A Hug
Voted World's Best Freesurfer