Surfing is the clear winner.
SURF:
Hard to remember a better stretch of surf in recent memory.
FORECAST:
Monday keeps us in chest high waves and Tuesday morning looks to be small.
WEATHER:
I love that November feels more like summer than our actual summer. Amazing the offshore winds we had on Wednesday, we hardly ever get anything that strong here in SD. Looks like it's more of the same this weekend, albeit with less winds, but more like a slight dip in temps tomorow but then high pressure builds again Sunday/Monday. Nothing major- just a continuation of temps around 80 at the beach and no clouds.
BEST BET:
Looks like Saturday/Sunday with new fun swell and nice weather again.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Just last summer, signs pointed to a rapidly declining El Nino and and rapidly increasing La Nina. Then the ol’ girl cooled her heels and it looked like a neutral winter around here. Now the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is back on the La Nina bandwagon! (Kind of sounds like the presidential race). So what exactly can we expect this winter around here?! Let’s have gander at NOAA’s latest prediction:
First things first:
The Niño3.4 Index—the temperature of the ocean surface in a specific region of the equatorial Pacific, and our primary metric for measuring El Niño and La Niña—has been trending cooler since the demise of our big El Niño event in May. We now have two consecutive overlapping “seasons” (in climate forecaster lingo, that’s any three-month period) where the Nino3.4 Index averaged more than -0.5°C cooler than the long-term average: July—September and August—October.
One of the interesting things about the sea surface temperature lately is just how warm the rest of the world’s oceans are, even compared to recent La Niña years like October 2011 or October 2007. Just an observation…
Next step:
The current NOAA Climate Prediction Center/IRI forecast gives La Niña conditions a slight edge through mid-winter: about a 55% chance. In order to qualify as a La Niña episode, La Niña conditions have to be present for at least five consecutive overlapping seasons, but of course we can’t know for sure in advance that that will happen. So, in order to qualify as La Niña conditions, we require a forecast that favors that they’ll remain for several months.
A 55% chance isn’t overwhelming, but not much about this La Niña is right now. Almost all of the computer models predict that the Niño3.4 Index will hover just below -0.5°C cooler than average for a few months, before returning to near-average in the late winter.
Let’s ask some questions about the current conditions and if it relates to La Nina:
• Is the sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region more than half a degree cooler than average? Yes! (It was about -0.7°C below average during October.)
• Do forecasters think it will stay cooler than that threshold for several overlapping three-month periods? Yes! (But just barely.)
• Finally, are there signs that the atmospheric circulation above the tropical Pacific is stronger than average? Yes! This all means that La Niña has officially arrived.
The final piece:
The whole reason that ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) matters to countries located far from the tropical Pacific is the changes it causes to global atmospheric circulation. Therefore, we can’t have La Niña conditions without some specific changes in atmospheric circulation. There are several of these changes we look for, all related to the Walker Circulation over the tropical Pacific.
La Niña’s cooler surface waters lead to less rising air, and therefore fewer clouds than average in the central Pacific. Conversely, there is more rising air, clouds, and rain over Indonesia during La Niña. This part of the atmospheric response to La Niña has been pretty clear over the past couple of months.
We’ve also seen stronger-than-average easterly (blowing from east to west) winds in the central Pacific, more evidence that the Walker Circulation is strengthened. However, while this has been fairly consistent since mid-September, these winds are definitely not blowing us away!
The atmospheric response overall is fairly weak, going along with the borderline cooler sea surface temperatures of this La Niña… but it’s been consistent for a few months, meaning that we are seeing a change on seasonal timescales, and it’s time to formally welcome La Niña conditions!
October 20, 2016 Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued the U.S. Winter Outlook today, saying that La Nina is expected to influence winter conditions this year. The Climate Prediction Center issued a La Nina watch this month, predicting the climate phenomenon is likely to develop in late fall or early winter. La Nina favors drier, warmer winters in the southern U.S and wetter, cooler conditions in the northern U.S. If La Nina conditions materialize, forecasters say it should be weak and potentially short-lived.
Enough of all the science mumbo-jumbo. What does that mean for us here in the good ol’ USA? Here’s the 2016 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February):
Precipitation
• Wetter than normal conditions are most likely in the northern Rockies, around the Great Lakes, in Hawaii and in western Alaska
• Drier than normal conditions are most likely across the entire southern U.S. and southern Alaska.
Temperature
• Warmer than normal conditions are most likely across the southern U.S., extending northward through the central Rockies, in Hawaii, in western and northern Alaska and in northern New England.
• Cooler conditions are most likely across the northern tier from Montana to western Michigan.
• The rest of the country falls into the “equal chance” category, meaning that there is not a strong enough climate signal in these areas to shift the odds, so they have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation.
Drought
• Drought will likely persist through the winter in many regions currently experiencing drought, including much of California and the Southwest
• Drought is expected to persist and spread in the southeastern U.S. and develop in the southern Plains.
• New England will see a mixed bag, with improvement in the western parts and persistence to the east.
• Drought improvement is anticipated in northern California, the northern Rockies, the northern Plains and parts of the Ohio Valley.
Long story short, just like the presidential election, you can’t predict the future. Looks like we’re headed towards a drier than average/warmer than average winter around here but it wouldn’t shock me if we got a ton of rain either!
BEST OF THE BLOG:
Don't forget: Surf Swap next Saturday the 19th from 8 AM to 2PM at 2777 Loker Ave. W #140, Carlsbad benefitting Boys To Men Mentoring! Come on down and sell your old surf gear. Just $10 to sell your stuff (and free if you want to shop) and your donation goes to a good cause of course. There will also be a few surf companies down there like FCS, Super, Rinse Kit, Suga, Gorilla Grip, and more; so get some early holiday shopping done too. And if you've got an old board in decent condition, donate it to the kids at Boys To Men and Super will give you a $50 gift certificate for a new board at superbrand.com. Everyone wins. For more info, check out the North County Board Meeting website here. See you next weekend!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Not sure if you know this or not, but I got in early on Apple stock about 20 years ago. Just cashed it out and bought an island in Indo. Picked up a couple boats too. The big one tows me back out to the line-up (jet skis are so 2015) and the little one carries my Bintang beer on ice. Other than the roar of the tigers keeping me up at night, life is good.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Hardy
Glenn 2020
Made Kook Of The Day! (There's No Such Thing As Bad Publicity)
