THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Welcome El Nino!

SURF:
Not to say I told you so, but, I told you so! No one believed in El Nino (just like Santa Claus) and he's finally here! Just 2 years after the fact and right in the middle of La Nina, but still! He's here! I think. I'm totally confused. Can't complain though; we need the rain to help with the drought (and keep my lawn green).

And we need surf which neither El Nino or La Nina seem to have produced this past week. That's short lived though as the winds pick up tomorrow from our next potent storm, the surf will rise with it. Look for chest high waves in the AM and offshore flow early. Then winds turn SE mid-morning from the approaching storm. By afternoon it's a real mess with head high+ surf and blown surf from strong SSW winds.

Saturday the surf peaks in the overhead range and storng W winds follow. Sunday things start to clean up but the surf will be on it's way down. At least the mountains will have a white Xmas.

Water temps are high 50's and tides this weekend are 4' at sunrise, down to almost 0' at lunch, and back up to 3' at sunset.

FORECAST:
Monday the surf is finally clean but small in the waist high range.

Models show a little bump from the NW arriving on Tuesday for chest high sets but they also show an outside chance of showers- but that's a 50/50 proposition at best. So we could have fun clean surf or junky surf. It's a guessing game at this point. That holds into Tuesday and we may get another reinforcemnent from the NW on Thursday for more chest high waves- and cleaner weather. All in all we have some storms in the north Pacific but they're not that organized nor aimed directly at us- hence the smallish surf. Which wouldn't be too bad if the S winds would just behave.

WEATHER:

Great start to our winter and we're only 1 day into it. We're sitting at roughly 3.5" or rain so far (about 125% of normal for this time of year) and we're about to get up to 1.5" more tomorrow through Saturday. Fill those resevoirs! Look for fairly clean weather in the AM tomorrow then the winds will pick up from the SSW all day.

By nightfall we should have solid rain and solid wind. Just like winter was meant to be. That tapers off late Christmas Eve and on Sunday we've got clear cold skies and snow in the local mountains. Wish I had a cabin in Julian this weekend. Monday should be nice and models hint at another small storm on Tuesday but it's a long shot. After that we return to sunny skies and beach temps in the low 70's- just like the other 364 days around here. Make sure to keep up to date on the changing weather at Twitter/North County Surf.  

BEST BET:
Early tomorrow with small building NW swell and clean conditions or next Tuesday with fun chest high NW and MAYBE clean conditions. Or... Thursday with chest high NW again and most likely clean conditions.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Sometimes I get so wrapped up in talking about waves that I forget to get down to basics and talk about what exactly makes the waves tick. Our good friends at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric  Administration can break it down for us…

The ocean is never still. Whether observing from the beach or a boat, we expect to see waves on the horizon. Waves are created by energy passing through water, causing it to move in a circular motion. However, water does not actually travel in waves. Waves transmit energy, not water, across the ocean and if not obstructed by anything, they have the potential to travel across an entire ocean basin.

Waves are most commonly caused by wind. Wind-driven waves, or surface waves, are created by the friction between wind and surface water. As wind blows across the surface of the ocean or a lake, the continual disturbance creates a wave crest. These types of waves are found globally across the open ocean and along the coast.

More potentially hazardous waves can be caused by severe weather, like a hurricane. The strong winds and pressure from this type of severe storm causes storm surge, a series of long waves that are created far from shore in deeper water and intensify as they move closer to land. Other hazardous waves can be caused by underwater disturbances that displace large amounts of water quickly such as earthquakes, landslides, or volcanic eruptions. These very long waves are called tsunamis.

Out in the depths of the ocean, tsunami waves do not dramatically increase in height. But as the waves travel inland, they build up to higher and higher heights as the depth of the ocean decreases. The speed of tsunami waves depends on ocean depth rather than the distance from the source of the wave. Tsunami waves may travel as fast as jet planes over deep waters, only slowing down when reaching shallow waters. Storm surge and tsunamis are not the types of waves you imagine crashing down on the shore. These waves roll upon the shore like a massive sea level rise and can reach far distances inland.

The gravitational pull of the sun and moon on the earth also causes waves. These waves are tides or, in other words, tidal waves. It is a common misconception that a tidal wave is also a tsunami. The cause of tsunamis are not related to tide information at all but can occur in any tidal state. While tsunamis are often referred to as tidal waves, this name is discouraged by oceanographers because tides have little to do with these giant waves.

There are many other types of waves in our universe like sound waves, string waves, radio waves, visible light waves, microwaves, sine waves, stadium waves, earthquake waves, cosine waves, and slinky waves to name a few. But as surfers, we only care about water waves.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

If you could only surf one wave the rest of your life, would you surf this left? Even it means you never saw another right the rest of your life?

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Never Been Better
Still Believe in Sandy Claws
Just Shaped a 10’0’ Yule Tide Log