Santa Ana's from San Diego to Santa Ana.
SURF:
Nothing too exciting this past week except some dirty water towards Monday and leftover NW windswell/groundswell. Today we had a small late season SW join the mix for chest high sets and nice weather.
FORECAST:
New NW fills in on Monday for shoulder high sets and that lasts into Tuesday morning. Not much is in the forecast the rest of the week as we're in-between storms.
WEATHER:
Not a bad little rain event last weekend. Most spots ended up with 3/4" to 1" and the mountains from LA to SD received 1.5" to 2". That leaves Newport slightly above average early in this rainy season, Oceanside slightly below, and SD well below. But we're still 3 weeks away from the start of winter, so I'm not worried. Yet. On the opposite end of the spectrum is tomorrow's forecasted Santa Ana wind event. The OC will get the strongest winds- maybe gusts to 50mph and SD will get 25mph winds. Temps will be mild with this wind event- mainly high 40's at night and high 60's during the day. Plenty of sunshine though. Winds back off by Sunday and next week is mild, sunny, and temps near 70. Just like every other day of the year around here. Make sure to keep up to date on the latest wind advisories at Twitter/North County Surf.
BEST BET:
Tomorrow morning with offshores and small combo swell or mild conditions Monday and better NW.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
The eastern Pacifc hurricane season just wrapped up on November 30th and it was pretty darn fun considering El Nino was touted as 'dead' this summer and we were in the beginning of a La Nina phase. Glad the forecasts were wrong. The official hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th. The peak activity typically occurs during July through September. During the period 1981-2010, the Eastern Pacific seasonal averages were 15.4 named storms (maximum 1-minute surface winds between 39-73 mph), with 8.4 of those becoming hurricanes (maximum 1-minute surface winds of at least 74 mph) and 3.9 becoming major hurricanes (maximum 1-minute surface winds exceeding 111 mph, categories 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale).
So what did we end up with this year? The eastern Pacific hurricane basin, (which covers the eastern Pacific Ocean east of 140 degrees west), produced 21 named storms during 2016 (6 more than average), including 11 hurricanes (3 more than average) of which 5 became major hurricanes (1 more than average). July through September was the most active three-month period on record for this basin. NOAA’s eastern Pacific hurricane season outlook called for 13 to 20 named storms, including 6 to 11 hurricanes, 3 to 6 of which were expected to become major hurricanes. Of note was:
-Tropical Storm Agatha on July 2nd, our 1st named storm of the season
-Hurricane Paine on September 8th which dissipated just 250 miles south of San Diego
-Major Hurricane Seymour on October 23rd with 150 mph winds
-Tropical Storm Tina on November 14th, our last named storm of the season
-And Hurricane Otto on November 25th which crossed the Carribean and died in the Pacific's relatively cooler waters off of Costa Rica
For our friends in the Hawaiian Islands, the central Pacific hurricane basin covers the Pacific Ocean west of 140 degrees to the International Date Line. This basin saw 7 tropical cyclones (includes tropical depressions and named storms) during 2016. All 7 became named storms, and included 3 hurricanes of which 2 were major hurricanes. Tropical Storm Darby made landfall on the Big Island of Hawaii, marking the first time in recorded history that 2 storms in 3 years struck the Big Island (Darby in 2016 and Iselle in 2014). NOAA’s central Pacific hurricane season outlook called for 4 to 7 tropical cyclones. That outlook does not predict specific ranges of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes. Of note was Hurricane Pali in early January of 2016 (yes, early January, as in winter). At the onset of 2016, the dissipating Tropical Depression Nine-C left behind a large area of moisture across the equatorial Pacific, south of the Hawaiian island chain. A powerful westerly wind burst—a feature commonly associated with strong El Niño events—spurred cyclogenesis within the disturbance, resulting in the formation of an area of low pressure. Fueled by unusually high sea surface temperatures, estimated at 85.1 °F, the system gradually coalesced into a tropical depression on January 7. This marked the earliest formation of a tropical cyclone on record in the Central Pacific, surpassing 1989's Tropical Storm Winona by six days. It soon strengthened into a tropical storm, receiving the name Pali, becoming the earliest such system in the northeastern Pacific on record. Then, on January 11, Pali strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane, becoming the earliest hurricane on record in the northeast Pacific basin, beating the previous record set by Hurricane Ekeka in 1992. Pali reached a minimum latitude of 2.0°N, making it the lowest latitude tropical cyclone on record in the Western Hemisphere, surpassing Tropical Depression Nine-C which attained a minimum latitude of 2.2°N just two weeks prior. On January 12, Pali strengthened further into a Category 2 hurricane. During the next few days, Pali rapidly weakened while turning back towards the south-southeast, before weakening into a remnant low early on January 15, just SW of the Hawaiian island chain. Unrelated to Pali, Hurricane Alex developed over the Atlantic during the last few days of Pali's existence. This marked the first known occurrence of simultaneous January tropical cyclones between the two basins.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
Just wanted to give a shout out to everyone that's listened to me rant and rave about the weather and waves (that kind of rhymes) since the mid-90's. If you don't know my background, I've litterally been studying how the ocean works since the early 80's. I then went to San Diego State University in 1990 to get 'official' training in meteorology but decided my first job at the National Weather Service Des Moines, Iowa office wasn't the right fit so I ended up in the surf industry. My friends knew though I was constantly studying weather maps (real maps printed on paper- this was pre-internet you know) and they were constantly calling me for surf forecasts. So I deciced in the mid-90's to send a weekly surf forecast out to them via fax (this was pre-internet you know) and once they all got email, my job got a lot easier. 20 years later, I'm still here and it's grown to the North County Surf Blog back in 2010. Thanks to you, I just hit 100,000 pageviews. Of course a guy like Beiber does that daily, but for a local yahoo like me, I'm stoked. So thanks everyone. Here's to another 20 years and 100,000 more page views.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Found out last week that I'm a distant relative of the Rockefellers. Guess some 8th Uncle or something left me a little cash and this sweet house with a Lowers-like set up out back. God bless America!
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Discerning Taste
Struck a Deal to Star in Rogue Two
Made a Rip Curl F-bomb & Superbrand Fling in My 3-D Printer
