Happy Hollowdays!
SURF:
Happy Hollowdays everybody! ‘Tis the season for fun surf, clean conditions, and no rain.
FORECAST:
After a slow weekend, I’ve asked Santa to bring some fun NW on Christmas day because y’all have been so good this year. We’ll have waist to chest high waves (best in SD) Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.
WEATHER:
Wasn’t that exciting last night! Rain! Or technically it was showers. But still- water falling from the sky! So exciting. The showers were hit and miss across Southern California- some locations received nothing while Del Mar received a whopping 0.15”. So basically most spots in the area have received 0.05”-0.15” this season, while we should be at 2”-3” at this point. That’s the 2nd driest start to our ‘rainy’ season (October-December) on record. For the weekend we’ll have temps around 70 at the beaches and the nights should be chilly with some spots getting to the low 30’s. A weak front moves by to the N on Xmas and our temps drop slightly with a few clouds. It looks like no white/wet Christmas for us. Again. The remainder of the week looks sunny and mild. Long range models hint at high pressure finally breaking down the 1st week of January and storms trying to get into Southern California around the 5th of January. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.
BEST BET:
Late Wednesday/early Thursday with fun NW and clean conditions.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
As you’ve probably heard me say before: What’s the only job in the world where you can constantly be wrong but still be employed? A Meterologist! In all seriousness though, if we could predict the future, we’d all be the Oracle of Ohama and stashing billions in offshore accounts. But alas we’re not so we have to keep our 9-5’s. Weather forecasting though has gotten exponentially better over the years. What was once considered a minor miracle to get the forecast right 24 hours in advance, is now as simple as forecasting it a week out. Speaking of predicting the weather more than a week out, the Climate Prediction Center, which is overseen by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, puts out forecasts for 2 weeks in the future, 1 month, and seasonally (i.e. 3 months). In case you’re wondering, La Nina has taken hold and we’re due for above average temperatures in the near future and below average rainfall (like you didn’t know that already) through March.
But what about REALLY long term weather forecasts? Like this century? Well, the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) issued a Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) recently which serves as Volume I of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) (you getting all this?) and describes current trends in the climate globally and for the United States, and projects trends in temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, and Arctic sea ice for the remainder of this century. So if you’re going to live until the end of this century and party like it’s 2099 (R.I.P. Prince), what trends are we seeing? The findings include:
Global and U.S. Temperatures Will Continue to Rise:
• Based on the findings that the annual average temperature for the globe and the contiguous United States has increased 1.8°F from 1901 to 2016.
• Sixteen of the warmest years on record for the globe occurred in the last 17 years; the last three years were the warmest.
Variability in Temperature and Precipitation is Increasing:
• Heavy precipitation has increased in intensity and frequency across most parts of the United States since 1901, though there are important regional differences.
• Heatwaves have become more frequent in the United States since the 1960s.
• Cold temperatures and cold waves have decreased since the early 1900s.
• Annual trends toward earlier spring snowmelt and reduced snowpack are already affecting water resources in the western United States.
Ocean Temperatures are Warming and an Increase in Sea Level Will Continue:
• Global average sea level has risen by about 7–8 inches since 1900.
• Global average sea level is expected to rise by several inches in the next 15 years.
Temperature Increases in Alaska and Across the Arctic are Greater than the Rest of the Globe Unfortunately:
• Annual average near-surface air temperature in Alaska and across the Arctic has increased over the last 50 years at a rate more than twice as fast as the global average temperature.
• Since the early 1980s, Arctic sea ice extent has decreased between 3.5 percent and 4.1 percent per decade, has become thinner by between 4.3 and 7.5 feet, and on average the season of melting lasts 15 more days per year.
So there's your forecast for the rest of the century: Temperatures are rising, extreme weather is becoming more frequent, ocean temps and sea levels are rising, and the Arctic is getting warmer and melting. No need to worry though; Musk and Bezos will have us living on Mars in no time.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
If I could wrap this up and put it under the tree for you, I would. But I can’t. So just sit back by the fire with a glass of eggnog and enjoy from a distance.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Harbinger
Still Believe (Not In Santa But Rather The Chargers Are Coming Back To SD)
Was Gary Elkerton’s Little Known Sidekick ‘Diddy Kong’
