Technically it’s not winter…
SURF:
Technically it’s not winter. So I’m not really worried it
hasn’t rained in December (or March through November for that matter). Or
should I worry? Regardless, as long as
the fire weather stays away, I’m fine with the glassy conditions all day and
shoulder high surf.
For Friday, the NW
picks up slightly for head high sets and that peaks Saturday with overhead
sets. We do though have a weak front moving through Saturday afternoon- the
wind will finally turn onshore- so the surf may be a little junky late
Saturday/Sunday morning. All in all some fun surf this weekend with nice
conditions (except for the potential wind late Saturday).
Water temps are high
50’s and tides will have a big switch- about 6’ at sunrise and down quickly to
-1’ in the late afternoon. That means the tide will drop 1’ an hour. Wow. Make
sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.
FORECAST:
The quick shot of NW windswell/groundswell late
Saturday/early Sunday will drop pretty quick on Monday to the waist high+ range
and that holds most of the week.
Late Thursday we get another shot of head
high+ NW and the onshore winds may return from another weak front passing by to
the N (more on that below). That holds into Friday. After that, models don’t
show anything that impressive but that’s a long way out and anything can happen
between now and the end of the month.
WEATHER:
Not sure what to tell you here. We’ve got great weather
again tomorrow- and maybe a slight shot of fire weather inland (i.e. light
offshores and low humidities). As mentioned above, there’s a weak front moving
through late Saturday/early Sunday which will finally turn the winds onshore
and give us a slight chance of sprinkles. Don’t get your hopes up though. High
pressure should build behind it and warm weather/clean conditions will prevail
again. As the NW swell moves into our area on Thursday, we should have another weak front move through late
Thursday. As that exits the region next week, strong Santa Ana offshore winds
may return for the Xmas weekend. So don’t count on a white Xmas, a wet Xmas,
but rather a windy (and hot) Xmas. Looks like we may not receive any rain this
December. Thanks for nothing La Nina.
BEST BET:
Tomorrow with fun NW and clean conditions or early Saturday before the wind kicks in.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
I had a friend ask me about last week’s THE Surf Report, in
particular the NEWS section and the stubborn high pressure we’ve had this month.
He asked what causes high pressure/low pressure and how they interact with each
other. I usually don’t take special requests (namely because no one asks me),
so here goes my attempt at being a professor:
As you know by now, high pressure is generally associated
with nice weather, while low pressure is generally associated with cloudy,
rainy, or snowy weather. But why? (Remember to raise your hand next time). Basically,
air cools as it rises, which can cause water vapor in the air to condense into
liquid water droplets, (forming everything from fog to a full blown hurricane).
On the other hand, sinking air is associated with warming and drying
conditions. So to put it simply, rising air = cooler/condensing and sinking air
= warmer/drying. So what does this have to do with high and low pressure? Well,
high pressure is associated with sinking air, and low pressure is associated
with rising air. The airflow (due to the Earth’s rotation and friction) is
directed slightly inward toward the low pressure center, and slightly outward
away from the high pressure center. The slightly inward moving air in low
pressure causes air to converge and since it can’t move downward due to the
surface, the air is forced upward, leading to condensation and precipitation. This
is why the weather with low pressure is often unsettled - there are usually
weather fronts associated with these depressions. The opposite occurs with high
pressure. Air is moving away from the high pressure center at the surface, so
as a result, air from above must sink to take its place. This usually leads to
light winds and settled weather conditions. The surface flow is accompanied by
the opposite behavior at upper levels of the atmosphere. On a side note, low
pressure systems circulate counter-clockwise and high pressure systems
circulate clockwise.
Of course this is the simplified version of low and high
pressure. Our current high pressure has had some windy days (with no rain of
course) and not all low pressure causes condensation, but hopefully this gives
you a general overview to help you understand our awesome world of weather.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
I love dissecting surf pics. Like this juicy round barrel.
That’s being fed by a double up. And no one’s out. Basically V-Land without the
stink eye!
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Timeless
Trying Really Hard To Be Good For Santa
World’s Most Accurate Surf Forecaster* (*J.D. Power &
Associates)
