THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Not a big fan of wind.

SURF:
I’m not a fan of wind. Don’t get me wrong- we wouldn’t have waves if there wasn’t wind (scratch that thought- Kelly already figured that one out). But in the true sense of the word ‘wind’, it’s usually a hindrance, not a help.  Like a 6’ groundswell hitting the canyon at Black’s. BUT… there’s a 10 mph S wind on it. Or San Francisco and it’s abundance of large surf- but the howling N wind pretty much blows it to shreads.

Or this week with fun little waves being groomed perfectly by offshore winds! Which happen to set Southern California on fire. So let me be the first to say- I don’t like wind. Glassy conditions are my new favorite. On that note, we had a little bit of combo swell today with hard offshore winds as our friends in Ventura, LA, and Oceanside scrambled for cover. The high pressure responsible for the strong winds has also blocked storms from getting close to California. The result is a lack of rain and big surf. As the storms form off Japan, they’ll make it all the way to Hawaii before hitting high pressure off our coast and fall apart.

Good news is that we have waist to chest high NW arriving tomorrow afternoon. Bad news is that it would have been twice as big if our high pressure wasn’t in the way. We will also have a little leftover SW in the water too. The NW will hang around this weekend while the SW dies. All in all look for fun little waves and clean conditions as the winds stay mostly offshore. Water temps have dropped like a rock due to the offshore winds/upwelling (another reason I don’t like wind) and are in high 50’s.

And tides this weekend are about 2.5’ at sunrise, up to 4.5’ after lunch, and down to 2.5’ again at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

FORECAST:
Clean conditions look to be in place most of next week as we get pulses of NW every few days.

Next stop on the wave train is Tuesday afternoon as shoulder high sets arrive and hold into Wednesday.

After that we may have a good swell (and better if high pressure finally breaks down) around Friday the 15th with overhead WNW waves. Forecast charts show the N Pacific taking a breather after that so the next significant swell may not be until the 3rd week of December.

WEATHER:

If you didn’t read my rant above about wind, I’ll make it quick: High pressure is anchored over the western United States and it’s blocking our storms from giving us rain and big surf. Look for more offshore winds this weekend- slightly lower in strength than what we had today- most likely in the 10-15 mph range- and sunny skies. Winds may continue to decrease all next week which would be good for the fire crews- and glassy conditions for us. A win-win. Temps will hover around 70. The sun has been nice but I’m ready for a white Xmas.

BEST BET:
Tomorrow with new small NW and leftover SW and offshore winds. Or Wednesday with new NW and glassy conditions. Or next Friday with slightly larger NW and potentially clean conditions still…

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

All the talk this week has been about the Santa Ana wind conditions and the wildfire threat. Living in Southern California, we’ve grown to expect this in the fall. Just not so far into the fall- like the beginning of winter. Now of course there are exceptions to every rule- like the May 2014 San Diego County wildfires which were a swarm of 20 fires that erupted during a severe Santa Ana wind event and were influenced by historic drought conditions and a heat wave. Our recent fires on the other hand have been influenced by a couple good winter rains which grew the vegetation on our hillsides. Sounds promising until we hit this year’s La Nina and the rains haven’t arrived to keep our vegetation green. Add in low humidities from this week’s Santa Ana and we’re ripe for disaster.

As explained by the Weather Channel yesterday, Los Angeles has seen just 0.11 inches of rainfall since Oct. 1, which ranks as the 11th-driest start to the wet season in 141 years of records, according to meteorologist Bob Henson. That equates to about 6 percent of the average rainfall in the city for the period spanning Oct. 1 to Dec. 4. Henson added that San Diego recorded a top-10 driest November with a measly 0.02 inches of rain. That's also its total for the entire wet season, which began Oct. 1. Just how little is 0.02”? As little as it sounds. Might as well say 0.00”. And the last significant rain we received was 0.50” back in late February and spotty showers in March. So if we don’t receive at least some showers by the end of December (which we’re on track to do), we will have gone 9 months without a soaking. That spells trouble.

Northern California has fared better thanks to some early-season storminess. Downtown San Francisco had received 65 percent of its average precipitation for Oct. 1 to Dec. 4, and Sacramento had picked up 68 percent of its average rainfall for that time. The early season storminess also helped squash the fire danger in Napa after the disastrous mid-October fires.

So what’s causing the prolonged sunny skies and offshore winds? A pronounced northward bulge in the jet stream over western North America has been in place and will not erode away anytime soon. When this type of weather pattern sets up and persists, it deflects the storm track northward, leaving California bone dry. It was a weather pattern like this one that led to a multi-year drought in the state that was finally extinguished last winter. Whether this pattern remains a persistent feature through the rest of winter remains to be seen, but for now, conditions will remain dry through the first half of December.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

2017 has seen a lot of right handers for the PIC OF THE WEEK and I apologize to all my goofyfoot friends. So here’s a grinding left to close out the year on a good note for all the surfers who put their right foot forward.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Reaping The Benefits
Porg Smuggler
Going To Name My Next Kid Either Aleutian Or Chubasco