THE Surf Report- Early Edition

I think I can see the end from here...

SURF:

Our run of surf continued this week with a mix of NW groundswell and some windswell thrown in today. Most spots around town had overhead sets and jumbled conditions. Having an early morning NW wind didn't help either. For tomorrow the NW combo continues to drop for shoulder high sets. By Saturday it's just a shell of it's former self with chest high sets.

Late in the day though, the NW picks up again from a new cold front headed down the coast (don't shoot the messenger). Doesn't look to be a strong storm or big rain producer, just enough S wind late Saturday and W wind on Sunday to screw up the overhead surf Sunday.

Water temps are holding in the high 50's and tides this weekend are around 6' at sunrise, down to -1' mid-afternoon, and up to 2' at sunset.

FORECAST:

So I think that's it for awhile. Forecast charts aren't showing any significant storms in the North Pacific for the next 10 days, so it's going to be quiet around here. We have little blips of NW windswell for MAYBE chest high waves in SD around the 28th of February and 2nd of March, but that's it from our friend from the N.

We did though have a small early season storm earlier in the week off Antarctica that will give far N county SD and the OC chest high sets towards the 28th into the first couple days of March. Along with the forecasted NW windswell, might be some fun little combo peaks. Just don't expect any big NW surf like we've had.

WEATHER:

So I think that's it for awhile. Nice cool weather tomorrow and Saturday will give way to showers Sunday and Monday. Maybe 1/4" to 1/2" total. After that, skies clear out Tuesday and offshore 'Santa Ana' winds set up shop the 2nd half of the week. Beyond that- no rain in sight- just sunny skies. Are the big storms over for the year? probably not, but none are on the radar for the forseeable future. So enjoy the beach weather late next week while you can. Keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.  

BEST BET:
Tomorrow with leftover dying NW and sunny skies or late next week with new small SW/NW and offshore winds.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Between these El Nino and La Nina events, my head is spinning. Why? Well, climatologists are already claiming our current La Nina is over. In a nutshell, the cooler than average water temps in the eastern equitorial Pacific are back to normal. What does that mean for the remainder of 2017? I'll let the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration explain:

Well, that was quick! The ocean surface in the tropical Pacific is close to average for this time of year, putting an end to La Niña, and forecasters expect that it will hover around average for a few months. Let’s dig in to what happened during January, and what the forecast looks like.

This La Niña wasn’t exactly one for the record books. Our primary index, the three-month-average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Niño3.4 region, only dipped to about 0.8°C cooler than the long-term average during the fall of 2016. However, these cooler-than-average temperatures persisted for several months, and the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific responded as expected to the cooler waters. Namely, during the fall and winter to date, the Walker Circulation was strengthened: stronger near-surface east-to-west trade winds, stronger upper-level west-to-east winds, more rain than usual over Indonesia, and less rain over the central Pacific.

During January, the sea surface temperature edged close to normal, and the average temperature in the Niño3.4 region was just about 0.3°C below normal by the end of the month. Another factor that we watch is the temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean below the surface. Over the past few months, the amount of cooler-than-average water at depth has been decreasing, and by the end of January it had disappeared. These deeper waters often give an idea of what we can expect at the surface in following months. Meaning, the lack of cooler water at depth makes it unlikely that the surface will cool off again substantially in the next few months.

There was also some evidence of a lingering La Niña effect on the Walker Circulation during January, with more rain and cloudiness over Indonesia and less over the central Pacific. Also, the trade winds along the equator in the western Pacific were slightly stronger than average in January, but the upper-level winds were about average. Overall, the atmosphere/ocean system is demonstrating that it’s returned to ENSO-neutral conditions, putting an end to the not-so-great La Niña of 2016/17.

So what’s in store for 2017? Most computer models agree that neutral sea surface temperatures will continue for the next few months, and forecasters estimate an approximately 60% chance of neutral conditions lasting through the spring. After that, it gets a bit more complicated. Some of the computer models are calling for a RETURN of El Niño conditions by the second half of 2017!

These models have a pretty good track record, so we’re not completely ignoring them. However… computer models (and human forecasters) have a very hard time predicting the future when the March–May period is in the way. In fact, a forecast made in June for the sea surface temperature in December (six months away) can be more successful than a forecast made in February for May (three months away)! Why the discrepancies? One of the reasons models have a hard time looking past the spring is that spring is often a transitional time, when ENSO events wind down and neutral conditions prevail.  It can be tougher to predict the change into a new phase than to predict the growth, continuation, or demise of an event.

The bottom line is that we’re giving the odds of developing El Niño conditions a slight edge for fall 2017, with the probability around 50%. The baseline chance of El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions occurring in the fall of any random year are about 33% each. Our current consensus forecast for the September—November 2017 period estimates a 12% chance of La Niña conditions, 40% chance of neutral conditions, and a 48% chance of El Niño.

So if El Nino returns (even slightly), what should we expect here in Southern California? Well, in 2015 and 2016 we were supposed to have received above average rainfall AND WE DIDN’T. Is this our time finally? Whether we get big storms or not from El Nino, we should at least have good surf from the Aleutians next winter. Since this current La Nina will transition to a neutral pattern in the near term, don’t expect 80 degree water temps this summer nor a big hurricane season. In regards to my comment above about big rains, we already got them this winter (over 12" so far), so what's the chance for next winter, especially if El Nino returns. Regardless of El Nino, if we look at our average 10” of rain a year, it’s rare we get 2 or more winters in a row with above average rainfall. Looking at the last 50 years of data, only ’78-’80, ’82-’83, and ’91-‘93 had consecutive years of significant totals over 10”. But that’s not to say we can’t get at least 10" which would help keep us out of a drought. And now that I’ve said that… JINX!  We’ll probably get 20+”.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

I'm not advocating you surf after torrential rains due to the filthy run off of pesticides, oil from the streets, and every virus known to man, but if you turn a blind eye, sometimes you'll get some darn good waves to yourself. Like this gem right in the heart of Los Angeles. That is, if your heart can withstand all the bacteria you're swallowing while duck diving this session.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Inspiring
Oscar Nominee
Former Team Rider For FORMER

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Somebody left the faucet on. The sequel.

SURF:
Stop me if you've heard this before. Just kidding. I'm not going to talk again about how shocked I am that we're getting so much rain during a 'dry' La Nina. I've done that for months now. I'm just going to let tomorrow's storm speak for itself. Or should I say shout. Before we get to that in the WEATHER section below, let's talk surf first.

Not much on tap this past week except for small NW and calm conditions. Today we had a small early season SW show for chest high waves in the far N part of the county and inconsistent shoulder high sets in the OC. We also had forerunners of our new NW showing this afternoon from the approaching storm. For tomorrow the NW really fills in as well as the powerful storm right on it's heels. Best bet Friday is get on it EARLY as you may find offshore/sideshore ESE winds and head high+ surf. Then all hell breaks loose by lunch as strong S winds hammer the coast and torrential rains make a mess of things tomorrow evening. Look for 1-2" or rain at the coast and wind gusts of over 50 mph. If you like power outages, flooded streets, and downed trees, this is the event for you.

Showers linger through Saturday and the swell peaks late Saturday/early Sunday for 12'+ surf in N county and 15'+ sets in SD. Sunday things start to calm down but the surf is still XL and the water extra dirty.

Tides are mellow thankfully this weekend- about 1-2' mid-morning and 2-3' late afternoon. Water temps are still sitting in the high 50's.

FORECAST:
Nice weather and calmer conditions arrive early in the work week for chest high+ NW surf.

We get a slight boost late Tuesday from a building NW that peaks Thursday morning. Look for shoulder high waves Wednesday and head high sets on Thursday. BUT... models show a weak cold front coming through during that time frame so it may have some bump to it. After that the N Pacific takes a little breather but the southern hemisphere starts to come to life.

Models show a couple blips on the radar which may give us chest high+ SW for the end of the month. But until then, enjoy the NW swells while you can get it, as spring is just around the corner.

WEATHER:

As mentioned above, we're in for a doozy tomorrow afternoon. Forecasts are calling this storm to be one of the more powerful ones in recent memory. Make sure those flashlights have fresh batteries and there's plenty of firewood on hand. Ok- it's not like we're living in Tahoe and we need to keep an eye out for the Donner Party, but still, this looks to be a pretty tough storm.

Most of the damage will occur late tomorrow and we're left with breezy conditions and clearing skies late Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday is expected to be clear and cool. Another weaker storm is looking to make it's way towards us Wednesday and after that we could be back to normal. Whatever that means this winter. Keep up to date on the waves/weather at  Twitter/North County Surf. 

BEST BET:
Very early Friday morning before the winds and surf get too strong or late Tuesday before the weak cold front comes in on Wednesday.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Ever notice when the wind blows NE (offshore) or N for long periods of time, our water temps drop like a rock? The obvious answer is upwelling. As the warm water at the surface gets 'peeled' back from the wind, the colder water underneath comes up to replace it. But why all the cold water at the depths of the ocean? Sure the sun warms the very top later of the ocean surface, but that's just a small fraction compared to the overall volume of water in the oceans worldwide. The real reason the depths of the ocean are so frigid is that cold water has a higher density than warm water. As explained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, water gets colder with depth because cold, salty ocean water sinks to the bottom of the ocean basins below the less dense warmer water near the surface. The sinking and transport of cold, salty water at depth combined with the wind-driven flow of warm water at the surface creates a complex pattern of ocean circulation called the 'global conveyor belt.'

In contrast, the Earth gets hotter and hotter at depth primarily because the energy of radioactive decay is leaking outwards from the core of the planet. While this geothermal energy is transferred to ocean water along the sea floor, the effect is so small that it's immeasurable by direct means.

Why? The actual amount of heat generated per square meter of Earth is quite small, especially compared to the amount of heat necessary to warm the ocean. Geothermal energy emanating from the Earth averages only about one tenth of a watt per square meter. At that rate of heat flow (without taking ocean currents into account), it would take well over a year just to heat the bottom meter of the ocean by one degree Centigrade.

However, the ocean is not standing still. Complex deep ocean currents driven by density variations in temperature and salinity are constantly replacing the bottom layer of ocean water with colder water.

Make sure you understand all this because they'll be a quiz next week. Or you can just blow off studying and go surf like I did.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Here's a companion shot of one I ran a few weeks ago of the same spot. Let's evaluate: From the water draining off the sharp lava rocks, to the 4' wave breaking on top of the 12' wave beneath it, to the riptide river in the foreground; this wave is flat out a below sea level beast. So gnarly in fact that no one wants it. Wait- scratch that- one guy. Must have been REALLY desperate to surf.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
I Can See The Future
Northcountysurf.blogspot.com IPO Set At $1 Billion
Was Throwing Buckets This Morning And Got A Ticket For Littering

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Somebody left the faucet on.

SURF:
Stop me if you've heard this before: I'm still in awe we had 2 years of 'El Nino' conditions and Southern California didn't see any significant rains. Then the 'dry' La Nina shows up this year and we're almost at capacity for rain this season with lots more to come. But enough of the shock talk, let's dig into the surf.

Had fun surf last weekend but not much since then. Today a small NW filled in for chest high sets at best spots.

More WNW fills in on the buoys tonight and builds tomorrow for head high sets in the afternoon. But... we have a weak cold front coming through. Best case is to have some light showers late tomorrow and W winds no more than 15 mph so we can catch a couple waves but not see storm surf conditions. Still though, it will be bumpy enough to make things uncomfortable. The WNW peaks on Saturday for overhead sets and we're left with breezy conditions and clearing skies by the afternoon. On Sunday the swell starts to back off as the weather cleans up. Long story short, just enough wind/clouds Friday/Saturday to mess things up and fun surf for Sunday.

Water temps are still high 50's (keep that 4/3 handy) and tides the next few days are 4' at sunrise, up to 6' mid-morning, down to -1' late afternoon and up slightly to 1' at sunset.

FORECAST:
Monday we have leftover WNW for chest high surf and offshore winds from high pressure that should set up after the storm this weekend. Surf continues to drop during the week as offshore winds persist.

Models then hint at more overhead WNW towards Thursday into the weekend- as more significant rains head our way (more on that below).

There was also a small storm off Antarctica yesterday that is sending chest high SW to the OC around the 16th/17th but the bigger WNW mentioned above (along with the rains) will squash that idea.

WEATHER:

As mentioned above, we have a weak cold front coming through tomorrow and it will kick up our W winds slightly and a small chance of showers/drizzle (sounds like last weekend, huh)? Saturday we have leftover showers and maybe some sun later in the day (along with NW winds). High pressure sets up Sunday and we should see offshore winds in the AM. Then a Santa Ana condition sets up Monday for real offshore winds and temps in the low 70's along with sunny skies. That lasts into Wednesday. Charts are showing the storm track lowering towards Thursday and real winds/rains return to Southern California (like we had a couple weeks ago). Batten down the hatches! (Again). If the models are correct, we could have a few storms roll through the area and the heavens won't relent until the 3rd week of February. Keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

BEST BET:
Mid-day tomorrow if the winds hold off from the next cold front and the surf builds. Or Sunday once the storm retreats and we have sunny skies and leftover swell. OR... next Thursday afternoon with new WNW surf (and before the storm train arrives).

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

So with all the rain this winter, you're probably wondering where we sit for the season. Or maybe you weren't wondering but now you're curious. Or maybe you don't care but I'm going to tell you anyway. So here goes:

• Newport Beach: 13.49" so far this season. 177% of normal. As a comparison, there was only 3.26" last season by this date. Normal for the entire year is 13.3" (So Newps has already hit it's quota. Quittin' time!)

• Oceanside: 10.38" so far this season. 145% of normal. As a comparison, there was only 4.8" last season by this date. Normal for the entire year is 13.66" (So we're almost there). 

• San Diego: 8.04" so far this season. 140% of normal. As a comparison, there was only 6.06" last season by this date. Normal for the entire year is 10.34" (So we're almost there). 

This weekend we're only supposed to get 1/2" or rain in the OC and 1/4" in SD so it won't really add to the totals. What's interesting though, if the jet stream drops and is aimed our way next weekend with the atmospheric river (or Pineapple Express for you old schoolers), then we could get another 3-5" added to our totals before month end. That would put Newport somewhere in the 17" range, Oceanside close to 15", and SD over 12". Everyone in Southern California would be WELL above their averages. Most of our rain for the season (season being defined as October 1st to September 30th) falls between December and March. So we've got at least another month of good rains left. Let's get hypothetical here: Say we get good rains next weekend and a couple smaller shots in March. That would leave Newport with 18"+ for the season, Oceanside 16"+, and SD 13"+. Where does that rank historically? If we use SD as a barometer for the last 50 years, we've only had 10 seasons with over 13" of rain. So we're in good company. Compared to the big El Ninos of recent memory, 1969 had 11.48", 1983 18.49", 1988 12.4",  1993 18.26", 1998 17.16", 2005 a whopping 22.6" (210% of normal for those of you keeping score), and last year's weak El Nino had 11.91". So 13"+ in a 'dry' La Nina year compared to the previously mentioned El Nino's is impressive. Way to go lil' sis!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Awesome shot of two simultaneous point breaks. Double the pleasure, double the fun. I should trademark that.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Independently Wealthy
Legally Changing My Name To Cupid So I Can Shoot Arrows At People
Voice Of The Lesser Known Super Friend 'Ripley Von Ripper'

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Winter is my favorite.

SURF:

I also said 'summer is my favorite' back in July when we had 75 degree water and plenty of southern hemi swells to surf, so take it with a grain of salt. Regardless, we've had lots of fun surf this winter and today was no exception.

New WNW swell filled in and most spots around town were shoulder high. Tomorrow it fills in further for overhead sets with a touch of tiny S swell that won't be noticeable with the bigger WNW. The surf holds into Saturday morning then starts to back off to the chest high+ range on Sunday. Weather wise, we have a weak cold front coming through tomorrow which will kick up our SW winds slightly and maybe some drizzle. Nothing like we had last month but not as clean as it was earlier in the week. All in all a fun weekend of surf if the weather behaves.

Tides the next few days are mellow: 2' at sunrise, down slightly to 1' mid-morning, up to 3' mid-afternoon, and down slightly to 2' at sunset. Water temps are still high 50's.

FORECAST:

Monday starts off small but by the afternoon we get another shot of NW for shoulder high sets- and maybe some showers. That holds into Tuesday.

Later in the week, more shoulder high WNW arrives Thursday afternoon into Friday. And even further out, the southern hemisphere is starting to come to life and models show a chest high SW arriving mid-month. But don't get your hopes up as we're still in the middle of winter.

WEATHER:

As mentioned above, we have a weak cold front coming through tomorrow and it will kick up our SW winds slightly and a small chance of drizzle. Saturday we see the sun and high pressure sets up on Sunday. On Monday, another weak front comes through for showers and a little more wind. By Wednesday, high pressure sets up again and it's smooth sailing the rest of the week. The North Pacific is still active but no real rain for us in Southern California for the near future. Make sure to keep up to date on the changing waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.  

BEST BET:
Tomorrow with solid swell but more clouds than we've had all week. Or Saturday with dropping swell and more sun. Or next Friday with smaller but fun WNW and great conditions.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

It’s something you’ve probably heard before- as climate change continues to warm the earth (Republicans say through a natural cycle, Democrats say through greenhouse gases- take your pick), the extra heat/energy will make hurricanes more volatile. But how exactly? Positive reinforcement. Science Daily last month explains:

An analysis of the strongest tropical storms, known as super typhoons, in the western Pacific over the last half-century reveals that they are intensifying. Higher global temperatures have enhanced global rainfall, particularly over the tropical oceans. Rain that falls on the ocean reduces salinity and allows typhoons to grow stronger.

"This work has identified an extremely important region affected by this, the western tropical Pacific known as Typhoon Alley. These storms are really destructive over that region," said oceanographer Karthik Balaguru of the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, who published the work in a recent issue of Nature Communications.

The unique contribution of this work is that it identifies the need to study upper ocean salinity in addition to temperature in examining the intensity of typhoons.

Typhoons -- the same storms as their Atlantic cousins known as hurricanes -- normally have a natural check on how intense they grow. The storms rely on heat from the ocean to build. Their strong winds whip up the ocean surface. This churns the ocean and brings deeper colder water to the surface, which cools off the surface and reduces the typhoon's power.

Previous studies suggested that as the planet warms, so does the surface of the ocean. As the temperature difference between surface ocean water and deeper water increases, ocean churning by typhoons cools the surface more strongly, which ultimately might decrease the intensity of tropical storms in the future.

But freshwater is less dense than saltwater. A warmer atmosphere brings more rainfall to the ocean than a cooler one. This freshwater collecting on top prevents the churning, keeping the surface warmer. Thus, a lack of ocean water mixing might mean a more intense storm.

Previously, studies that focused on global warming's effect on typhoons did not generally include the salinity factor, so Balaguru and colleagues at PNNL, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology decided to incorporate it. This allowed them to look at the effect of freshwater on the ocean both in the past and the future.

They focused on the western Pacific Ocean, where almost a third of tropical storms form. First they looked at the salinity of the top layer of ocean. They saw that between 1958 and 2013, the ocean there did become less salty during typhoon season, and most of this decrease was in the top 50 meters of ocean. A quick overlay of the storms showed that the storm tracks fell along the areas of lower salinity.

To explore further, they looked at how the salinity changes affected the strength of super typhoons, storms that are as strong as category 4 or 5 hurricanes. To do so, they looked at the wakes of cold water the super typhoons left on the ocean as they passed, and how the wakes correlated with salinity. The results showed that in the regions of ocean that were less salty, the storms produced wakes that were not as cold.

The team then analyzed which of the two competing factors -- the intensity bump from a decrease in salinity or the intensity snag from a larger ocean temperature gradient -- played a bigger role in modulating the intensity of the super typhoons. They found that the influence of salinity was about 50 percent stronger than the ocean temperature effect on the intensity of super typhoons. Super typhoons are most affected by the changes because they rely strongly on ocean's heat as their fuel.

Plugging the relationships into climate model projections for the future, the team found that as greenhouse gases and temperature rise, the increase of rainfall over the oceans will ultimately lead to more intense storms. In addition, the team found this effect using almost 20 different climate models. This consistency gives the researchers confidence in the result.

"Already this effect is intensifying, and it gets worse in the future," said Balaguru. "The reason why this is so significant is that it's happening with the worst storms on the planet. Not only are they intense, but they are very, very big. It's happening in a really important region, to mostly small islands in the Pacific, such as the Philippines, Taiwan and other Oceania Islands. Besides, typhoons also impact many East Asian countries. And there is sea level rise in the background, a double whammy effect on top."

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Another great shot from the crew at Eastern Surf Mag. The water and trees in the background give it away. Florida. But is it Miami? Cocoa Beach? New Smyrna?! Nope- secret spot on the Gulf. Yes- that Gulf. The one with 'no' surf. Must be smoke and mirrors.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
My Mom Says I'm Handsome
Dancing In The Halftime Show
Invented the Claim. My Apologies.