THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Somebody left the faucet on. The sequel.

SURF:
Stop me if you've heard this before. Just kidding. I'm not going to talk again about how shocked I am that we're getting so much rain during a 'dry' La Nina. I've done that for months now. I'm just going to let tomorrow's storm speak for itself. Or should I say shout. Before we get to that in the WEATHER section below, let's talk surf first.

Not much on tap this past week except for small NW and calm conditions. Today we had a small early season SW show for chest high waves in the far N part of the county and inconsistent shoulder high sets in the OC. We also had forerunners of our new NW showing this afternoon from the approaching storm. For tomorrow the NW really fills in as well as the powerful storm right on it's heels. Best bet Friday is get on it EARLY as you may find offshore/sideshore ESE winds and head high+ surf. Then all hell breaks loose by lunch as strong S winds hammer the coast and torrential rains make a mess of things tomorrow evening. Look for 1-2" or rain at the coast and wind gusts of over 50 mph. If you like power outages, flooded streets, and downed trees, this is the event for you.

Showers linger through Saturday and the swell peaks late Saturday/early Sunday for 12'+ surf in N county and 15'+ sets in SD. Sunday things start to calm down but the surf is still XL and the water extra dirty.

Tides are mellow thankfully this weekend- about 1-2' mid-morning and 2-3' late afternoon. Water temps are still sitting in the high 50's.

FORECAST:
Nice weather and calmer conditions arrive early in the work week for chest high+ NW surf.

We get a slight boost late Tuesday from a building NW that peaks Thursday morning. Look for shoulder high waves Wednesday and head high sets on Thursday. BUT... models show a weak cold front coming through during that time frame so it may have some bump to it. After that the N Pacific takes a little breather but the southern hemisphere starts to come to life.

Models show a couple blips on the radar which may give us chest high+ SW for the end of the month. But until then, enjoy the NW swells while you can get it, as spring is just around the corner.

WEATHER:

As mentioned above, we're in for a doozy tomorrow afternoon. Forecasts are calling this storm to be one of the more powerful ones in recent memory. Make sure those flashlights have fresh batteries and there's plenty of firewood on hand. Ok- it's not like we're living in Tahoe and we need to keep an eye out for the Donner Party, but still, this looks to be a pretty tough storm.

Most of the damage will occur late tomorrow and we're left with breezy conditions and clearing skies late Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday is expected to be clear and cool. Another weaker storm is looking to make it's way towards us Wednesday and after that we could be back to normal. Whatever that means this winter. Keep up to date on the waves/weather at  Twitter/North County Surf. 

BEST BET:
Very early Friday morning before the winds and surf get too strong or late Tuesday before the weak cold front comes in on Wednesday.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Ever notice when the wind blows NE (offshore) or N for long periods of time, our water temps drop like a rock? The obvious answer is upwelling. As the warm water at the surface gets 'peeled' back from the wind, the colder water underneath comes up to replace it. But why all the cold water at the depths of the ocean? Sure the sun warms the very top later of the ocean surface, but that's just a small fraction compared to the overall volume of water in the oceans worldwide. The real reason the depths of the ocean are so frigid is that cold water has a higher density than warm water. As explained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, water gets colder with depth because cold, salty ocean water sinks to the bottom of the ocean basins below the less dense warmer water near the surface. The sinking and transport of cold, salty water at depth combined with the wind-driven flow of warm water at the surface creates a complex pattern of ocean circulation called the 'global conveyor belt.'

In contrast, the Earth gets hotter and hotter at depth primarily because the energy of radioactive decay is leaking outwards from the core of the planet. While this geothermal energy is transferred to ocean water along the sea floor, the effect is so small that it's immeasurable by direct means.

Why? The actual amount of heat generated per square meter of Earth is quite small, especially compared to the amount of heat necessary to warm the ocean. Geothermal energy emanating from the Earth averages only about one tenth of a watt per square meter. At that rate of heat flow (without taking ocean currents into account), it would take well over a year just to heat the bottom meter of the ocean by one degree Centigrade.

However, the ocean is not standing still. Complex deep ocean currents driven by density variations in temperature and salinity are constantly replacing the bottom layer of ocean water with colder water.

Make sure you understand all this because they'll be a quiz next week. Or you can just blow off studying and go surf like I did.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Here's a companion shot of one I ran a few weeks ago of the same spot. Let's evaluate: From the water draining off the sharp lava rocks, to the 4' wave breaking on top of the 12' wave beneath it, to the riptide river in the foreground; this wave is flat out a below sea level beast. So gnarly in fact that no one wants it. Wait- scratch that- one guy. Must have been REALLY desperate to surf.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
I Can See The Future
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