THE Surf Report- Early Edition

I think I can see the end from here...

SURF:

Our run of surf continued this week with a mix of NW groundswell and some windswell thrown in today. Most spots around town had overhead sets and jumbled conditions. Having an early morning NW wind didn't help either. For tomorrow the NW combo continues to drop for shoulder high sets. By Saturday it's just a shell of it's former self with chest high sets.

Late in the day though, the NW picks up again from a new cold front headed down the coast (don't shoot the messenger). Doesn't look to be a strong storm or big rain producer, just enough S wind late Saturday and W wind on Sunday to screw up the overhead surf Sunday.

Water temps are holding in the high 50's and tides this weekend are around 6' at sunrise, down to -1' mid-afternoon, and up to 2' at sunset.

FORECAST:

So I think that's it for awhile. Forecast charts aren't showing any significant storms in the North Pacific for the next 10 days, so it's going to be quiet around here. We have little blips of NW windswell for MAYBE chest high waves in SD around the 28th of February and 2nd of March, but that's it from our friend from the N.

We did though have a small early season storm earlier in the week off Antarctica that will give far N county SD and the OC chest high sets towards the 28th into the first couple days of March. Along with the forecasted NW windswell, might be some fun little combo peaks. Just don't expect any big NW surf like we've had.

WEATHER:

So I think that's it for awhile. Nice cool weather tomorrow and Saturday will give way to showers Sunday and Monday. Maybe 1/4" to 1/2" total. After that, skies clear out Tuesday and offshore 'Santa Ana' winds set up shop the 2nd half of the week. Beyond that- no rain in sight- just sunny skies. Are the big storms over for the year? probably not, but none are on the radar for the forseeable future. So enjoy the beach weather late next week while you can. Keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf.  

BEST BET:
Tomorrow with leftover dying NW and sunny skies or late next week with new small SW/NW and offshore winds.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Between these El Nino and La Nina events, my head is spinning. Why? Well, climatologists are already claiming our current La Nina is over. In a nutshell, the cooler than average water temps in the eastern equitorial Pacific are back to normal. What does that mean for the remainder of 2017? I'll let the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration explain:

Well, that was quick! The ocean surface in the tropical Pacific is close to average for this time of year, putting an end to La Niña, and forecasters expect that it will hover around average for a few months. Let’s dig in to what happened during January, and what the forecast looks like.

This La Niña wasn’t exactly one for the record books. Our primary index, the three-month-average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Niño3.4 region, only dipped to about 0.8°C cooler than the long-term average during the fall of 2016. However, these cooler-than-average temperatures persisted for several months, and the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific responded as expected to the cooler waters. Namely, during the fall and winter to date, the Walker Circulation was strengthened: stronger near-surface east-to-west trade winds, stronger upper-level west-to-east winds, more rain than usual over Indonesia, and less rain over the central Pacific.

During January, the sea surface temperature edged close to normal, and the average temperature in the Niño3.4 region was just about 0.3°C below normal by the end of the month. Another factor that we watch is the temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean below the surface. Over the past few months, the amount of cooler-than-average water at depth has been decreasing, and by the end of January it had disappeared. These deeper waters often give an idea of what we can expect at the surface in following months. Meaning, the lack of cooler water at depth makes it unlikely that the surface will cool off again substantially in the next few months.

There was also some evidence of a lingering La Niña effect on the Walker Circulation during January, with more rain and cloudiness over Indonesia and less over the central Pacific. Also, the trade winds along the equator in the western Pacific were slightly stronger than average in January, but the upper-level winds were about average. Overall, the atmosphere/ocean system is demonstrating that it’s returned to ENSO-neutral conditions, putting an end to the not-so-great La Niña of 2016/17.

So what’s in store for 2017? Most computer models agree that neutral sea surface temperatures will continue for the next few months, and forecasters estimate an approximately 60% chance of neutral conditions lasting through the spring. After that, it gets a bit more complicated. Some of the computer models are calling for a RETURN of El Niño conditions by the second half of 2017!

These models have a pretty good track record, so we’re not completely ignoring them. However… computer models (and human forecasters) have a very hard time predicting the future when the March–May period is in the way. In fact, a forecast made in June for the sea surface temperature in December (six months away) can be more successful than a forecast made in February for May (three months away)! Why the discrepancies? One of the reasons models have a hard time looking past the spring is that spring is often a transitional time, when ENSO events wind down and neutral conditions prevail.  It can be tougher to predict the change into a new phase than to predict the growth, continuation, or demise of an event.

The bottom line is that we’re giving the odds of developing El Niño conditions a slight edge for fall 2017, with the probability around 50%. The baseline chance of El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions occurring in the fall of any random year are about 33% each. Our current consensus forecast for the September—November 2017 period estimates a 12% chance of La Niña conditions, 40% chance of neutral conditions, and a 48% chance of El Niño.

So if El Nino returns (even slightly), what should we expect here in Southern California? Well, in 2015 and 2016 we were supposed to have received above average rainfall AND WE DIDN’T. Is this our time finally? Whether we get big storms or not from El Nino, we should at least have good surf from the Aleutians next winter. Since this current La Nina will transition to a neutral pattern in the near term, don’t expect 80 degree water temps this summer nor a big hurricane season. In regards to my comment above about big rains, we already got them this winter (over 12" so far), so what's the chance for next winter, especially if El Nino returns. Regardless of El Nino, if we look at our average 10” of rain a year, it’s rare we get 2 or more winters in a row with above average rainfall. Looking at the last 50 years of data, only ’78-’80, ’82-’83, and ’91-‘93 had consecutive years of significant totals over 10”. But that’s not to say we can’t get at least 10" which would help keep us out of a drought. And now that I’ve said that… JINX!  We’ll probably get 20+”.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

I'm not advocating you surf after torrential rains due to the filthy run off of pesticides, oil from the streets, and every virus known to man, but if you turn a blind eye, sometimes you'll get some darn good waves to yourself. Like this gem right in the heart of Los Angeles. That is, if your heart can withstand all the bacteria you're swallowing while duck diving this session.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Inspiring
Oscar Nominee
Former Team Rider For FORMER