THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Somebody left the faucet on.

SURF:
Stop me if you've heard this before: I'm still in awe we had 2 years of 'El Nino' conditions and Southern California didn't see any significant rains. Then the 'dry' La Nina shows up this year and we're almost at capacity for rain this season with lots more to come. But enough of the shock talk, let's dig into the surf.

Had fun surf last weekend but not much since then. Today a small NW filled in for chest high sets at best spots.

More WNW fills in on the buoys tonight and builds tomorrow for head high sets in the afternoon. But... we have a weak cold front coming through. Best case is to have some light showers late tomorrow and W winds no more than 15 mph so we can catch a couple waves but not see storm surf conditions. Still though, it will be bumpy enough to make things uncomfortable. The WNW peaks on Saturday for overhead sets and we're left with breezy conditions and clearing skies by the afternoon. On Sunday the swell starts to back off as the weather cleans up. Long story short, just enough wind/clouds Friday/Saturday to mess things up and fun surf for Sunday.

Water temps are still high 50's (keep that 4/3 handy) and tides the next few days are 4' at sunrise, up to 6' mid-morning, down to -1' late afternoon and up slightly to 1' at sunset.

FORECAST:
Monday we have leftover WNW for chest high surf and offshore winds from high pressure that should set up after the storm this weekend. Surf continues to drop during the week as offshore winds persist.

Models then hint at more overhead WNW towards Thursday into the weekend- as more significant rains head our way (more on that below).

There was also a small storm off Antarctica yesterday that is sending chest high SW to the OC around the 16th/17th but the bigger WNW mentioned above (along with the rains) will squash that idea.

WEATHER:

As mentioned above, we have a weak cold front coming through tomorrow and it will kick up our W winds slightly and a small chance of showers/drizzle (sounds like last weekend, huh)? Saturday we have leftover showers and maybe some sun later in the day (along with NW winds). High pressure sets up Sunday and we should see offshore winds in the AM. Then a Santa Ana condition sets up Monday for real offshore winds and temps in the low 70's along with sunny skies. That lasts into Wednesday. Charts are showing the storm track lowering towards Thursday and real winds/rains return to Southern California (like we had a couple weeks ago). Batten down the hatches! (Again). If the models are correct, we could have a few storms roll through the area and the heavens won't relent until the 3rd week of February. Keep up to date on the waves/weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

BEST BET:
Mid-day tomorrow if the winds hold off from the next cold front and the surf builds. Or Sunday once the storm retreats and we have sunny skies and leftover swell. OR... next Thursday afternoon with new WNW surf (and before the storm train arrives).

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

So with all the rain this winter, you're probably wondering where we sit for the season. Or maybe you weren't wondering but now you're curious. Or maybe you don't care but I'm going to tell you anyway. So here goes:

• Newport Beach: 13.49" so far this season. 177% of normal. As a comparison, there was only 3.26" last season by this date. Normal for the entire year is 13.3" (So Newps has already hit it's quota. Quittin' time!)

• Oceanside: 10.38" so far this season. 145% of normal. As a comparison, there was only 4.8" last season by this date. Normal for the entire year is 13.66" (So we're almost there). 

• San Diego: 8.04" so far this season. 140% of normal. As a comparison, there was only 6.06" last season by this date. Normal for the entire year is 10.34" (So we're almost there). 

This weekend we're only supposed to get 1/2" or rain in the OC and 1/4" in SD so it won't really add to the totals. What's interesting though, if the jet stream drops and is aimed our way next weekend with the atmospheric river (or Pineapple Express for you old schoolers), then we could get another 3-5" added to our totals before month end. That would put Newport somewhere in the 17" range, Oceanside close to 15", and SD over 12". Everyone in Southern California would be WELL above their averages. Most of our rain for the season (season being defined as October 1st to September 30th) falls between December and March. So we've got at least another month of good rains left. Let's get hypothetical here: Say we get good rains next weekend and a couple smaller shots in March. That would leave Newport with 18"+ for the season, Oceanside 16"+, and SD 13"+. Where does that rank historically? If we use SD as a barometer for the last 50 years, we've only had 10 seasons with over 13" of rain. So we're in good company. Compared to the big El Ninos of recent memory, 1969 had 11.48", 1983 18.49", 1988 12.4",  1993 18.26", 1998 17.16", 2005 a whopping 22.6" (210% of normal for those of you keeping score), and last year's weak El Nino had 11.91". So 13"+ in a 'dry' La Nina year compared to the previously mentioned El Nino's is impressive. Way to go lil' sis!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Awesome shot of two simultaneous point breaks. Double the pleasure, double the fun. I should trademark that.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Independently Wealthy
Legally Changing My Name To Cupid So I Can Shoot Arrows At People
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