Thursday, April 12, 2018

THE Surf Report- Early Edition



Nor Cal comes to So Cal.

SURF:


Wild and wooly out there today as a late season cold front sweeps through the region. 


Lots of NW wind has brought overhead NW windswell. Not really rideable unless your desperate (like me). Fortunately the winds back off over the weekend but the swell drops with it. Look for shoulder high waves on Friday, chest high surf on Saturday, and waist high+ swell on Sunday. 


Water temps are 60 and tides this weekend are 2.5’ at sunrise, up to 4.5’ mid-morning, down to 0’ late afternoon, and back up to 4’ at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

FORECAST:


Monday starts off slow before another weak front moves into the area and kicks up our NW windswell again for head high+ surf by Tuesday- and breezy conditions. 

Wednesday drops to the chest high range and then yet another NW windswell with a little more kick arrives for Friday with overhead surf- along with windy conditions again. 


And then… forecast charts show more NW swell for around the 23rd- but I’m not sure about the conditions that far out. But I’m going to take a wild guess and say it will be windy again. As far as the southern hemisphere goes, there really hasn’t been a lot of organized activity down there pointed our way. Plus all of our NW windswell would just make a mess of it.  

WEATHER:


Off and on cold fronts this past week will lead to more off and on cold fronts next week. No rain to speak of but cooler temps and blustery conditions. Luckily for us the weekend looks to calm down and we have temps in the mid-70’s and sunny skies. Then another weak front moves through late Monday/Tuesday for wind, clouds, and temps in the mid-60’s. Wednesday is a transition day then another front comes through late Thursday/Friday for clouds/wind. Basically spring weather with another 9 weeks before summer arrives. 

BEST BET:
Tomorrow (Friday) with leftover NW windswell and cleaner conditions in the AM. Or… a poor man’s version of Nor-Cal next week with strong NW winds and windswell to boot Tuesday and Thursday and again? towards the 23rd.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:


When we think of weather disasters, hurricanes always seem to top the list. But for 2018 the U.S. has already started out with a bang with $3 billion in damage and we’re still months away from the start of the hurricane season. In just the first three months of this year, the U.S. has experienced three weather and climate disasters with losses exceeding $1 billion each. These included a severe storm in the Southeast and two winter storms in the central and eastern U.S. that caused the deaths of at least 34 people and had significant negative economic impacts. I’ll let the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration dive deeper to see how March 2018 and the year to date fared in terms of the climate record:  

Climate by the numbers, March 2018:

The average March temperature across the contiguous U.S. was 42.6 degrees F, 1.1 degrees above average, and ranked near the middle of the 124-year record, according to scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. The month brought below-average temperatures to parts of the East Coast, Northern High Plains and West, and above-average temperatures across the south-central U.S. and parts of New England and the Upper Midwest.

The precipitation total for the month was 2.42 inches (0.09 of an inch below average), which also ranked near the middle of the record. Above-average precipitation was observed across parts of the West, Northern Rockies and Plains, Midwest and South, while below-average precipitation occurred across parts of Northwest, Southwest, Great Lakes, Southeast and East Coast.

Year to date | January-March 2018:

The average U.S. temperature for the year to date (January through March) was 36.8 degrees F, 1.6 degrees above average, placing it among the warmest third of the climate record. This was the coldest start of the year for the nation since 2014. Precipitation for the year to date totaled 7.13 inches, 0.17 inches below normal, which ranked near the middle of the record. 


Other notable climate events:

Nor’easters slammed the Northeast in March: In just one month, four strong winter storms, known as nor’easters, hit the East and brought heavy snow and cold conditions to parts of the Midwest and from the Southern Appalachians to New England. Some locations in the East had more snow during March than during the preceding winter months combined. Numerous locations had a top-five March snowfall total including Boston, Albany and Philadelphia.

Deadly storms hit the Gulf Coast: A severe storm system brought damaging winds, hail and tornadoes to the Southeast in mid-March. Over 20 tornadoes were reported in Alabama. Total damages exceeded $1 billion and at least 3 people died.

Northern Alaska basked in record warmth: The average March temperature for Alaska was 17.7 degrees F, 6.9 degrees above the long-term average. This tied with 1996 for the ninth warmest March in the 94-year period of record for the state. Northern and western Alaska were much warmer than average, with near-average temperatures in southern Alaska. Utqiaġvik (Barrow) had its warmest March and year to date on record.

Drought intensified in parts of U.S.: By the end of March, about 29 percent of the Lower 48 states were in drought, down from 31 percent at the end of February. Drought conditions worsened across the Central Plains, Southwest and coastal Southeast, and improved in parts of the West, Great Plains and interior Southeast.

And if you’re wondering, researchers expect the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane season to be above average so the damage will most likely continue to pile up this year…

PIC OF THE WEEK:


Not sure what that person is waiting for. A watched pot never boils. Or is he watching those pits on the boil? I think I’m confused.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
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