Winter called and wants 1 more chance.
SURF:
Seems like all the talk around town lately has been the lack
of solid surf since January. Walls must have ears because Ol’ Man Winter just
called and says we should give him 1 more chance. Sound like a deal? Good. Because
we have wet weather and waves on the way.
First up, let’s review the week that wasn’t.
Small SW showed up late Tuesday and has given us chest high sets in far north county
SD and shoulder high waves at best OC spots. That lasts through tomorrow then
drops Saturday.
Now switching back to winter mode- new WNW should start to fill
in Saturday evening for shoulder high sets Sunday morning (especially towards
SD). We also have a weak cold front coming through that will kick up our winds
on Saturday/Sunday; so the building surf may be bumpy.
Water temps are in the
high 50’s due to all our N winds and tides this weekend are 3’ at sunrise, down
to 0’ at lunch, and up to 3’ at sunset. Make sure to keep up to date on the
waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.
FORECAST:
You know that new step-up I bought at the end of January
that hasn’t been waxed yet? It’s time to wax it. JINX! Don’t worry- I just
knocked on wood. We’re all good. As mentioned above, winter seems to be making
a return- about 3 months late. But beggars can’t be choosers and I’m fired up.
First is the lingering WNW over the weekend that will give us leftover shoulder
high sets on Monday morning. Tuesday drops to the waist high+ range then we get
another building WNW on Wednesday afternoon for shoulder high waves again.
Now
here’s the good part: Things kick up a notch on Thursday for head high (and
dare I say overhead sets late Thursday?! Don’t worry- I just knocked on wood
again). Then things get really interesting. Finally. Another cold front may
move through late Thursday into Friday and along with it- peaking WNW swell on
Friday for 10’ sets. Step-up time! Now it could be bumpy from the cold front
but I really don’t care. I’m just so happy to see waves bigger than Kelly’s
Surf Ranch. I may just have to sell that property I recently bought in Lemoore.
After that, the forecast charts don’t show the Aleutians slowing down and we
may get another overhead WNW again around the 15th. I think it’s
time to activate the Emergency Boardriding System! (I trademarked that- don’t
use it).
WEATHER:
Been cool the past few days. That looks to be the case the
next few days along with a chance of showers late Saturday into Sunday morning.
Once that blows through, we’ll have nice conditions and temps in the mid to
high 60’s Monday through Wednesday. And If the models are correct, we could
have a better chance of rain for next Thursday into Friday. And if that swell
materializes for the 15th- we may have showers again. What’s the old
saying? April showers bring May flowers? Looks to be true.
BEST BET:
If you like a little wind with your waves, then you’ll love
late Saturday/Sunday, next Thursday/Friday, and maybe late next weekend!
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
I know it sounds funny to talk about the end of winter since
we have showers potentially coming the next 7 days and Nor-Cal is about to get
pummeled tomorrow, but technically winter ended March 20th so I
thought it was a good time to have a look in the rearview mirror and recap our
‘rainy’ season. With help from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), here’s how
we fared across the US and Southern California:
Winter was much warmer than average across northern, central
and western Alaska, the southeast and southwestern (us) parts of the country,
while the High Plains, parts of the Pacific Northwest, southeastern Alaska, and
southern Texas experienced below normal temperatures. Elsewhere, temperatures
were around average.
The western (us) and southeastern regions of the United
States observed a drier-than-average winter, while the Missouri and Ohio River
Valleys, Great Lakes and western High Plains recorded a wetter than average
winter. Based on the early season prediction last fall, the outcome was pretty
accurate by the CPC.
What actually happened this winter then with the above
average temps in So-Cal and below average rain? La Niña? Other stuff? Lots of
things actually. For one, there has been a La Niña active over the Pacific
Ocean. And has been covered numerous times in THE Surf Report, La Niña can
influence the winter over the United States by impacting the jet stream and the
placement of high and low pressures over the mid-latitudes. But we can’t blame
EVERYTHING on La Niña…
Also active during this winter was the Madden Julian
Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is the major fluctuation in tropical weather on
weekly to monthly timescales. The MJO can be characterized as an eastward
moving 'pulse' of cloud and rainfall near the equator that typically recurs
every 30 to 60 days. In short, as the MJO moved around the globe, it led to
prolonged periods of colder and warmer than average temperatures across much of
the country this winter. Though, while this certainly impacted monthly climate,
it likely had less impact on climate patterns averaged over the entire winter. Anything
else, you ask? Well, there was always the randomness of the weather as well as
variability in other atmospheric oscillations like the Arctic Oscillation
(that’s another story).
But why is La Niña / El Niño (ENSO) so influential on our
weather? Basically it’s the one influence that is actually predictable a season
ahead of time. We know that other things will impact the winter temperature and
precipitation patterns besides ENSO. But we don’t know exactly HOW those other
atmospheric features will behave more than a couple weeks in advance. In
contrast, we usually know what phase it will be—El Niño or La Niña—months in
advance. The other things mentioned, like the MJO or other patterns of middle
to high latitude variability, are much more random, which means they don’t give
forecasters nearly as much of a heads up.
As noted in the March 2nd THE Surf Report,
our ‘rainy’ season turned out to be a dud. Even with showers forecasted this
weekend, it will only be a drop in the bucket. So where do we stand as of
today?...
• Newport 2.66” of rain (22% of
normal)
• Oceanside 4.68” (39% of normal)
• San Diego at 3.18” (34% of
normal)
Pretty ugly. But let’s forget about that. Winter is behind
us and we can look forward to nicer weather. What is the Climate Prediction
Center’s forecast for the next 90 days? First up, La Niña looks to be gone and
we’re in a neutral state (i.e. normal). That should mean an average
spring/summer for surf and water temps. As far as precipitation and air
temperatures go for you landlubbers out there, we look to be high and dry with
a below average chance of any significant rain and slightly above air temps
(nothing new there). So basically this spring will feel like an early start to
summer. Which I guess means our past winter (and it’s lack of rain) was really
our spring!
(On a side note, I hope you read last week’s THE Surf Report
in regards to tsunami’s since we had a 5.3 earthquake off the Channel Islands
today. Damn I’m good).
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Now that Mick’s retired, he’ll be hunting down set ups like
this. Think he needs a board caddy? Will work for surf.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
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Surf Like A Combination of Buzzy Trent & Trent Munro
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