Things are looking up.
SURF:
Had a little bit of NW windswell a week ago, then some NW/SW
last weekend, and mostly small but fun SW the past few days.
This weekend looks
to be fun as we have an extreme angled S swell filling in on Friday for chest
high waves that peaks on Saturday with shoulder high waves. Due to the extreme
S angle, the OC should see head high sets by Saturday. Not to be left out of
the fun, we have a shot of NW windswell filling in late Saturday too that will
peak early Sunday. Not big- about chest high- but along with the S swell, beach
breaks could be head high, fun, and peaky. Water temps are starting to creep up
slightly since our N winds have backed off and are sitting in the low 60’s
finally.
And tides this weekend are 2’ at sunrise, up to 4.5’ mid-morning, down
to 0’ mid-afternoon, and up to 4.5’ again at sunset.
FORECAST:
The weekend’s S swell will fade by Monday but we have more W
on tap from a late season storm. Look for shoulder high sets Monday morning from
the W then another shot on Tuesday for chest high+ waves again from the W.
After that, things slow down with small background SW headed our way late next
week for waist high+ surf in northern SD and chest high waves in the OC. Make
sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.
WEATHER:
I’ve said it a million times and I’ll say it again- Spring
truly is the season between Winter and Summer. Why do I say that? Because we’re
not getting storms and we’re not getting beach weather. We’re somewhere in-between.
As Northern California gets rain this weekend, we just get the tail end of a
cold front sweeping by Central California and it will kick up our low clouds
for temps in the mid-60’s and partly cloudy skies. That last through Sunday.
Monday another weak front moves by to our N and we have a chance for sprinkles
(gasp) late in the day into Tuesday. For the remainder of the week we get a
little more sun and temps in the mid-60’s. As far as Summer goes, we’re still 2
months away and 7 months until we see rain again. Just in case you were
wondering.
BEST BET:
Saturday and Sunday with good combo SW/NW. Hopefully the S winds won’t be an issue with that weak front up N though. Or check out Tuesday with a late season W swell. Hopefully the S winds won’t be an issue with that weak front up N though. Did I just experience déjà vu?
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Seems like feast or famine this past winter when it came to our rains. Nothing from October
to December 2017, we got walloped by a big storm in January 2018 with 2-3” of
rain, nothing in February of course, and March was normal in Southern
California- except for a direct hit to the burn areas of Santa Barbara from a
deluge of rain. So just what caused the ‘feast’ part of our winter rains? If you’re
a surfer over 40, you’ll blame it on the Pineapple Express. Or as our friends
at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration call it… an atmospheric river.
The gigantic amount of water that barrels towards us in the
winter is called an atmospheric river; a storm system that begins far out at
sea and gathers abundant moisture as it travels towards land, often driven by
high winds. Atmospheric rivers can be bigger than 300 miles across, hold more
than 10 times the amount of water found in the Mississippi River, and they can
be both a boon and a threat to the state. A boon, because we only see a handful
of them each year, yet they're responsible for 50 percent of the annual
precipitation California receives.
But they can be a threat because they are capable of
releasing enough water at one time to cause dangerous debris flows, which is
exactly what happened when an atmospheric river hit the freshly burned
Montecito area back in January. More than half an inch of rain fell in five
minutes, and at least 21 people were killed.
"They benefit our water supply, but if they come with
too much intensity or on top of the previous storm that’s already made the
ground real wet, they can also create major hazards," said Marty Ralph,
director at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at UC San Diego,
who studies the storm systems.
The downpours are welcome in our time of extreme drought IF
the ground can hold. Just a half an inch of rain over the course of an hour is
all it takes to trigger debris flows in mountains scorched by fire. A loss of
vegetation and alteration of soil characteristics following wildfires means
that the land is less able to absorb water and stay in place. Coupled with the particularly
steep hillsides of California, mudslides are more likely.
For weather events that can have such a huge impact on the
state, the storm systems are near impossible to predict. When trying to determine
where an atmospheric river might touch down, even three days out, the margin of
error is about 190 miles, according to Ralph. That's roughly the distance
between San Luis Obispo and Los Angeles. This year, Ralph and others have been
studying the storm systems with the hopes of being able to better understand
them.
This past winter, Ralph boarded multiple planes and flew out
over atmospheric rivers off the coast of California. While in the air, the crew
released instruments that can measure temperature, wind, humidity and pressure,
in the river itself. With the data, Ralph said that they hope to better
understand the weather systems and improve their prediction models so that when
we finally get rain again, we can be better prepared.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Bombora: An indigenous Australian term for an area of large
sea waves breaking over a shallow area such as a submerged rock shelf, reef, or
sand bank that is located some distance from the shoreline. Also known as a ‘bombie’.
Just wanted to let you know. For more shots of bombing swell, check out Andrew Shield’s work here.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
First Team All American
Can’t Believe That Kate and Will Named Their Baby After Me
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