THE Surf Report- Early Edition

A bounty of riches. 

SURF:

Been really fun lately. Not sure what I did to deserve this but I'm trying not to jinx it. 

Had a good SW fill in a couple days ago along with some background NW and it's been hanging around ever since. 

For the weekend, we get a little reinforcement from the NW tomorrow and another small SW on Saturday; end result is more chest high surf with shoulder high sets. Just enough to keep the heart racing.

Water is still hanging around 65 degrees and tides this weekend are 3' at sunrise, up to 6' before lunch, and down quickly to 0' at sunset. 

FORECAST:

Monday starts to see a new WNW fill in with shoulder high sets late in the day. This was a good storm that formed a few days ago and by Tuesday morning, we'll have head high sets with overhead waves in SD. Wednesday starts to drop to the chest high range and Thursday/Friday we're back to waist high+ NW. 

Further out, models show a small storm forming off Antarctica this weekend that may give the OC chest high waves next weekend. 

After that, the Aleutians may come alive again for more head high WNW around November 7th. Make sure to keep track of the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.  

WEATHER:

Still pleasant weather around here. After a slight taste of winter a couple weeks ago with brief showers, we're back to mild weather and moderate Santa Anas. Look for high pressure to build over the weekend with dense fog at the beaches in the AM then sunny skies and temps in the mid-70's. Low pressure moves by to the N late Sunday/Monday and we get cooler temps and more low clouds. High pressure then builds again mid-week and we're back to mild Santa Ana conditions and temps in the mid-70's. And no rain sight. 

BEST BET:

Fun surf this weekend but that new NW late Monday into Tuesday is the real winner. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As you already know by now, it's been an active hurricane season on both coasts. While the Atlantic Hurricanes Florence and Michael have rightfully gotten most of our attention lately, climate conditions in the Pacific this summer churned out one storm after another. We’ve seen a whopping 22 named storms in our region so far this year, but even that sheer number does no justice to the intensity of this hurricane season. This Pacific hurricane season has been the most intense one that meteorologists have ever recorded- and we still have 5 weeks to go. Popular Science explains why:

The Pacific hurricane season covers all storms that form between the western coast of North America and 180°W, which is also known as the International Date Line. The eastern Pacific basin stretches from the western coast of North America to 140°W longitude. The central Pacific basin, which covers Hawaii, stretches from 140°W to 180°W. Meteorologists and climatologists often combine the two basins since most of the storms that cross through the central Pacific originated in the eastern Pacific.

Storms that form west of the international date line are still tropical cyclones, but instead of being called hurricanes, they’re known as typhoons. Typhoons are tracked separately from hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific because of geopolitical reasons and the fact that storms in the western Pacific are influenced by different factors than storms in the rest of the ocean.

The eastern and central Pacific basins have seen an incredible 22 named storms so far this year. The season began with Hurricane Aletta’s formation on June 5 and continued through Major Hurricane Willa last weekend. 12 of those named storms became hurricanes, and 10 of those storms strengthened into a category four or five at one point during their lifespan. 10 storms with winds reaching category four or five status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a record for the most storms we’ve ever seen achieve that strength during one Pacific hurricane season.

The sheer energy released by these storms places this year in record territory. Meteorologists measure the strength of a hurricane season through Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). ACE measures the energy produced by a storm by calculating the maximum sustained winds of the storm over its lifespan. The average ACE value for the eastern and central Pacific basins combined is about 121. The ACE generated by this year’s storms through October 25th is 313- almost triple what you’d see in an average year and the most intense year on record. 

For context, the entire Pacific—from Asia to North America—is traditionally more active than the Atlantic basin. The eastern Pacific alone typically sees about 15 named storms in an average year compared to just 12 over in the Atlantic. The Pacific is usually busier than the Atlantic because sea surface temperatures are warmer and there are fewer factors present—such as dry air or wind shear—to inhibit the development of storms. The developing El Niño in the eastern Pacific this year is also likely boosting the development of storms and helping them reach their full potential.

Unlike the Atlantic, the list of storm names in the eastern Pacific includes the letters X, Y, and Z to account for the heightened activity. It would be a heavy lift for this hurricane season to exhaust the English alphabet and continue into the Greek alphabet—which has only happened once, during the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season—but it’s not a completely implausible scenario at this point.

Despite the number and strength of storms so far this year, relatively few have threatened land at full strength in the central or eastern Pacific. Hawaii faced the greatest tropical threats this year, feeling the effects of Hurricane Lane in August and Tropical Storm Olivia in September. Lane produced the second-highest rainfall total ever recorded during a tropical cyclone anywhere in the United States, dropping 52 inches of rain on the Big Island as it passed just south of the island chain. Hurricane Walaka, the only storm to actually form in the central Pacific this year, made a close brush with Johnston Atoll in October before heading out to open waters.

Thankfully, prevailing winds across the region usually sweep these storms westward, sending them out to sea where they perish in cooler waters, but there are notable exceptions. Storms hit or brush Mexico fairly regularly and can cause significant wind damage to coastal communities and produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across inland mountainous areas. 7 storms this year either made landfall in or closely brushed Mexico. Luckily, 6 of those storms were tropical storms or weaker, and they were predominately rainmakers. #7 unfortunately was Major Hurricane Willa this past weekend and slammed into mainland Mexico with 160 mph winds. The remnant moisture from Hurricanes Bud, Rosa, and Sergio produced flooding rains when they moved into the southwestern United States.

And with 5 weeks to go and warmer than usual water temps due to the building mild El Nino, expect the season to squeeze out another storm before it officially ends November 30th.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

If you haven't heard, the event of the year is happening next Thursday, November 1st. OK, maybe I'm a little biased since the North County Board Meeting and I will be hosting it, but still, it's going to be an awesome time. Why? Pro surfer Damien Hobgood will be joining us at Witch Creek Winery in downtown Carlsbad to narrate a slideshow from acclaimed surf photographer Aaron Checkwood. In addition to the great insight and imagery, we'll be having a silent auction to benefit Waves 4 Water and the CAHP Widows and Orphans Trust Fund. Oh- and wine and appetizers in a great setting. Sound like fun? Then grab your significant other and join us! We have a few spots left and it's first come first serve, so check out the info below to reserve your spot asap:

• General Admission 6:30-9:30 PM ($40 individual ticket/$60 couple)
• Includes: Damien Hobgood x EPK poster, wine tasting/appetizers, slideshow with Aaron and Damien, silent auction
• VIP: 5:30-9:30 PM ($50 individual/$80 couple)
• Includes: EARLY entry, SIGNED Damien Hobgood x EPK poster, SPECIAL wine selections in the Witch Creek cellar, slideshow with Aaron and Damien, and silent auction

Please send a check asap (payable to North County Board Meeting) or cash to Agency 73, 244 N Coast Hwy 101, Encinitas, CA 92024 to reserve your spot- or contact fellow NCBM member Rich Clark at rclark@fuzionpayments.com for credit card payments. 

Thank you for the support and hope to see you next week! 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

No thank you. All yours. And if you must see more, check out Russell Holliday's work here.

 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Civilized

Can't Wait To Board The Titanic II

3 X Coca-Cola Surfabout Winner '88, '92-'93

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Kind of like winning the lottery. Kind of. 

SURF:

Great weather and fun surf lately feels like I won the Surf Lottery. If there was such a thing. Which begs the question: If you had a choice to win the lottery- but had to give up surfing OR... have good surf the rest of your life but had to work, what would you take? You know my answer: Both- I'd be a pro surfer. Anyway, where was I? Oh- the good waves and weather lately. 

We had some new NW fill in today for shoulder high sets at best spots and a touch of SW. Look for the NW to fill in a touch more tomorrow and peak with consistent chest to shoulder high sets and shoulder to head high surf in SD. Combined with the Santa Ana winds in the AM, could be darn fun. Again. Saturday backs off to the chest high range and Sunday is waist high with chest high sets in SD. On that note- make sure to get on it tomorrow! Water temps have dropped due to all the offshore winds and sit around 65 degrees. 

And tides this weekend are 4.5' at sunrise (7 AM), down to 1.5' about lunch time, and back up to 4.5' at sunset (6:15 PM). 

FORECAST:

After a slow Sunday, things start to pick up late Monday with new SW swell in the shoulder high range in far north county. That lasts into Wednesday morning. 

By Thursday, the north Pacific sends us shoulder high NW again with bigger sets in SD. 

And on it's heels is another fun SW swell in the shoulder high range by next Saturday. Nothing big but lots of swells from all over the Pacific next week. Make sure to keep track of the waves and weather Twitter/North County Surf.  

WEATHER:

Looks like the Santa Ana type conditions are not going away- yet. We've got a couple more days of warm air temps, breezy NE winds in the AM, and cool nights. 

By Sunday, weak low pressure to the N moves through the western states and will push the Santa Ana away. Look for a return of cooler temps and more night/morning low clouds for most of next week. And no rain in the near future. 

BEST BET:

Lots of choices the next 7 days: Fun NW tomorrow, better SW on Tuesday, fun NW again on Thursday, OR... more SW next weekend. Again. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As you may have read in THE Surf Report the past few months, looks like we're headed towards a mild El Nino this winter. What does that exactly mean for us here in Southern California, the West Coast, and the rest of the US? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) just came out with their outlook and let's keep our fingers crossed that Southern California we'll get some drought relief. Here's what NOAA had to say:

A mild winter could be in store for much of the United States this winter according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. In the U.S. Winter Outlook for December through February, above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern and western U.S., Alaska and Hawaii.

Additionally, El Nino has a 70 to 75 percent chance of developing. “We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.” El Nino is an ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. During the winter, typical El Nino conditions in the U.S. can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North.

Other climate patterns that can affect winter weather are challenging to predict on a seasonal time scale. The Arctic Oscillation influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and could result in below-average temperatures in the eastern part of the U.S. The Madden-Julian Oscillation can contribute to heavy precipitation events along the West Coast – which could play a large role in shaping the upcoming winter, especially if El Nino is weak, as forecasters predict.

The 2018 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February):

Temperature:

Warmer-than-normal conditions are anticipated across much of the northern and western U.S., with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains. The Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures. No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures.

Precipitation:

Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the U.S., and up into the Mid-Atlantic. Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation this winter. Drier-than-average conditions are most likely in parts of the northern Rockies and Northern Plains, as well as in the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley.

Drought:

Drought conditions are likely to persist across portions of the Southwest, Southern California, the central Great Basin, central Rockies, Northern Plains and portions of the interior Pacific Northwest.Drought conditions are anticipated to improve in areas throughout Arizona and New Mexico, southern sections of Utah and Colorado, the coastal Pacific Northwest and the Central Plains.

NOAA’s seasonal outlooks give the likelihood that temperatures and precipitation will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are expected to change, but the outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The next update will be available on Nov. 15.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Considering how many guys are out at Swamis, Rincon, Snapper Rocks, and Lowers on a good swell, I'm still amazed there's still empty waves on this planet. More proof that you need to save those pennies and get out there on surfari! 

 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Snazzy

Doing Everything I Can To Get Ariana And Pete Back Together

Asked Simon To Make My Custom With 3 Fins And The Rest They Say Is History

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Like the child who moved back home after college. 

SURF:
Remember that good hurricane Sergio swell last weekend? He's still here. Sergio was an odd storm. Most hurricanes form off of Mexico and head N towards us or W towards Hawaii. Sergio did both; first it went towards Hawaii, then it did a 180 and headed back towards us.

Pretty awesome- he gave us a week of surf. May have to give props to Sergio and name my next kid after him. All good things must come to an end though as the last real day of surf from Sergio will be Friday. Look for more head high S swell during the day and overhead sets in the OC.

We also have a small SW filling in tonight from the southern hemisphere that will keep us in rideable chest high+ surf through Saturday. By Sunday, most swells are gone and we're back to waist high+ waves. One thing to watch out for this weekend- we have a weak cold front moving through that may tap into moisture from dying tropical storm Sergio. Showers should start by Saturday morning and last into Sunday- which make the water quality suspect.

Tides this weekend are 3' at sunrise, up to 5' at lunch, and down to 1' at sunset. And water temps are still a manageable 67 degrees.

FORECAST:

Now that our hurricane season is over (allegedly), our attention turns to the Aleutians. Not much surf is on tap from Monday to Thursday- just small background NW/SW for maybe waist high waves, but models show a good storm forming in the N Pacific early in the week. We should see shoulder high NW swell on Friday into Saturday with head high surf in SD.

On it's heels is a southern hemisphere swell poised to arrive around the 22nd for chest high surf.

And behind that, forecast charts show a large southern hemisphere swell that may give us head high+ surf from the SW around October 27th. And in between all of that, I wouldn't be surprised to see another hurricane swell make an appearance before the month is over. To re-cap: not much surf to start the week but good waves next weekend and beyond. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

Pleasant weather this week + fun Sergio swell = good conditions all week. Tomorrow looks to be the same then the weak cold front mentioned above should arrive by Saturday. Rainfall could be up to 1/2" with this, due to moisture from Sergio getting drawn into this system. Monday looks to be dry and warm with a weak Santa Ana wind event into Wednesday. Another weak cold front is forecasted to move into the area the 2nd half of next week for more light showers. Looks like a little bit of everything the next 7 days.

BEST BET:
Tomorrow with a last gasp from Sergio or our first real NW swell next weekend.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

If you haven’t noticed by now, the 21st century has had lots of wild weather. Take last month for example; September gave the country heat and lots of rainfall, thanks in part to Hurricane Florence.  These factors ranked September 2018 as the fourth hottest and third wettest September on record for the contiguous United States.

By the end of September, the U.S. had experienced 11 billion-dollar weather disasters that included two winter storms, Western wildfires, drought, a hail storm, a spate of tornadoes and Florence.

Let’s take a closer look at the highlights from NOAA’s latest U.S. climate report:

September 2018:
The average September temperature across the contiguous U.S. was 67.8 degrees F (2.9 degrees above average), making it the fourth hottest September in the 124-year record, according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). States across the Southwest, and spanning the Mississippi River to the East Coast, saw above-average temperatures. Some areas of the Northwest and Great Plains had near- to below-average temperatures.

The average precipitation for September was 3.49 inches (1 inch above average), making it the third wettest September on record. Slow-moving Hurricane Florence dropped torrential rainfall that triggered record flooding in eastern parts of the Carolinas. Parts of the Southern Plains and Midwest also saw record-setting rainfall, while the West was mostly dry.

The year to date- January through September:
The average U.S. temperature for the year to date (January through September) was 57 degrees (2 degrees above average) – making it the eighth warmest such period on record. And with a national precipitation total of 25.2 inches (2 inches above normal), it was the 13th wettest YTD on record.

More stats of note:
Florence's grim aftermath: The hurricane’s prolonged storm surge and historic flooding was responsible for at least 51 deaths. The single highest rain total from Florence of 35.93 inches was recorded in Elizabethtown, N.C.

Hurricane Olivia soaked Hawaii: Olivia – the first tropical cyclone to make landfall on the Hawaiian islands of either Maui or Lanai – brought more than 12 inches of rain and destructive flooding.

Drought improved: September ended with 29 percent of the contiguous U.S. in drought, down from 34.4 percent measured at the end of August.

So what wild weather does late fall/winter hold in store for us here in California? Well, El Nino neutral conditions still reign at of the beginning of October, but we’re starting to see some clearer signs of the development of a true El Niño. Forecasters estimate that El Niño conditions will develop in the next few months, and there’s a 70-75% chance El Niño will be present through the winter.  Most computer models are currently predicting a weak El Niño event though. So expect a little more rain and a couple more swells than usual. I’ll take it.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Hope someone builds a retirement home there because I'd really like to retire there. And yes, I'll be surfing when I'm 100.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Effective
Cat-like Reflexes
Wear My Gath Helmet In The Shower In Case I Slip

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

I'm activating the Emergency Boardriding System. Again. Maybe I'll just leave it turned on. 

SURF:

Before we get started, just wanted to wish Keane Hayes a speedy recovery after his encounter with a shark last weekend here in North County. If you'd like to help with his medical bills, please visit his GoFundMe page here. 

On that note, if you were brave (or crazy) enough to paddle out after the incident last weekend, you most likely got some good Hurricane Rosa surf. Had a few overhead sets down here late Monday and the swell slowly tapered off all week. Don't fret though, Rosa's boyfriend Sergio is right on our heels. 

Sergio peaked this morning with 140 mph winds and took more of a westerly track than Rosa (not the best for us) but we still should see some head high surf by Saturday (and overhead for the OC). We also have some early season NW windswell/groundswell filling in late Saturday and peaking Sunday so the beach breaks could be gooooood from the combo swell. My only fear is that the S swell from Sergio and the NW windswell may try to cancel each other out but we still should have plenty of good surf this weekend. And one more thing to watch out for... models are showing a dry cold front moving through on Sunday so the NW winds may be strong and blow the swells to bits. Just a heads up. 

Water temps are still hovering around 67 degrees and tides this weekend are 5' at sunrise, down to 1' after lunch, and up to 5' again at sunset.

FORECAST:

Forecast charts show Sergio getting weird over the weekend. Normally a hurricane will form off of Mexico and head towards Hawaii or head into Baja. Sergio looks like it can't make up it's mind as models show it heading towards Hawaii over the weekend and then headed BACK towards us early in the week. What does that mean? Sergio swell should back off slightly to the shoulder high range on Monday- then pick up again as it heads towards us on Tuesday! By Wednesday, more NW windswell/groundswell fills in and we'll have overhead combo surf again. And if the models are right- a couple feet overhead by Thursday. 

In the long term, hurricane formation will be a long shot as we're headed towards November but models do show a small southern hemisphere storm taking shape which may give us chest high surf around the 16th. And of course activity in the Aleutians is starting to heat up so we have that going for us. So make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.  

WEATHER:

Over the years, I've usually noticed our first shot of 'winter' type showers about a week before Halloween. This year- it happened last night as we received 1/2" of rain from a weak cold front. Not a bad way to start the season. As mentioned above, we have a weak but windy front coming through late Saturday into Sunday which may give us around 1/10" of showers and breezy conditions. Monday is looking to have light offshore winds and mid-week looks sunny and mild. After that, the forecast gets tricky thanks to guess who? Sergio. If Sergio does head our way towards next weekend, it may meet up with another week cold front coming from the N. If it does, showers are in the forecast again. 

BEST BET:

Good this weekend but solid late next Wednesday into Thursday. I'll take both. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As you may or may not know, in addition to studying waves and weather in college, I also studied geology. Waves of course break due to geology (i.e. reef breaks, point breaks, sandy beaches, etc.) so my studies went hand in hand. And one unfortunate consequence of geology are earthquakes. If you were a kid growing up in California, then you know the 'Duck and Cover' drill. Ever since kindergarten, we were told the 'Big One' was coming and we needed to be prepared. 30 years later, it still hasn't hit, but all around us there's been devastation caused by massive earthquakes: Mexico 2017, Japan and New Zealand in 2011, Chile in 2010, Nepal 2015, and just recently in Indonesia. If history tells us anything, it's coming. The last major earthquake in California (magnitude 7.0 or greater) was 112 years ago- the 1906 San Francisco quake. So when- and where- will the next Big One hit? It's impossible to predict but a recent article by Newsweek may shed some light on the subject:

If you live in California, you’ll know the Big One is coming: a powerful earthquake of up to magnitude eight is headed for the state. Energy has been building up along the San Andreas Fault for more than a century. No-one knows exactly when or where, but that one day that energy will be unleashed. It might strike at the heart of San Francisco, last devastated by a Big One in 1906. Or maybe it will tear through southern California like the magnitude 7.9 quake that hit in 1857 and ruptured some 225 miles of the San Andreas Fault. More than 100 years on, it’s hard to predict exactly how hard the next Big One will hit. John Vidale, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center and affiliate professor at the University of Washington, told Newsweek it won’t look like in the movies—cities won’t collapse into rubble and tsunamis probably won’t sweep through California. But without adequate preparations, the Big One could “cripple” the finances of a state that just became the fifth largest economy in the world.

What exactly is a “Big One,” and where could such an earthquake hit?

A tectonic boundary between the North American and the Pacific plates cuts through California. It’s a big fault where the two sides are moving three or four centimeters a year sideways. Strain builds up for one or two hundred years along that boundary, and then finally that strain becomes so great that the fault can’t take it anymore. It breaks and moves 15 ft or so all at once, causing an earthquake. There's three, four, five sections, to this fault—and many other faults running in parallel—but we worry about a Big One striking in the north or in the south of the San Andreas. There's a part between north and south in central California that seems act like a buffer. There's some chance a rupture could go end-to-end, but we think it’s either unlikely or that it just doesn’t happen.

How often do these massive earthquakes hit?

It’s every few hundred years. The earthquakes that have happened in the meantime are still devastating to a local area, but instead of magnitude eight, they're more like magnitude seven. It’s a logarithmic scale, so an eight has about 30 times more energy than a magnitude seven.

Don’t smaller quakes help to dissipate some of the energy that's building up deep underground?

Those little earthquakes let out only a tiny amount of energy compared to the big ones. It would take 10 magnitude seven earthquakes to let out the strain of a magnitude eight. We don't have that many, so those little earthquakes hardly slow the big ones at all.

Does that mean the next big one is inevitable?

That's right. When we look at the history of the fault, we can see these big earthquakes have happened many times over the last few thousand years, so yeah, it’s an inevitability. We just don't know if it’s going to be now or two hundred years from now.

What kind of impact would a northern or southern California Big One have?

The impact of the northern big one would be tremendous—I mean the San Andreas runs right through San Francisco. It’s quite a lot closer to San Francisco than it is to Los Angeles. Downtown San Francisco is vulnerable—some of the oldest buildings survived the shaking back in 1906, but that doesn’t mean they’d be safe in the next earthquake by any means. Many of the buildings are built close to the fault and on kind of soft ground that might liquify. A southern Big One would likely strike a little further away from the heart of Los Angeles, so the impact might be smaller. On the other hand LA has a lot more stuff to break than San Francisco—a lot of it is pretty old. So I think the net expectation is similar north and south. The fault is further away in the South, but it’s also riper, more ready, to go than the one in the north. More generally, there’s a lot of disasters that come from the strong shaking of an earthquake. It would certainly cause landslides, and conceivably chemical spills. We’re also concerned about fires.

What about tsunamis?

Tsunamis aren't a big worry here. For an earthquake to make a tsunami it would have to be offshore—not be on the main part of the San Andreas. The ground would move sideways, not so much vertically as in other places, and it’s hard to make a big wave moving sideways. But a lot of other things could happen. When the Tōhoku earthquake hit Japan in 2011, it caused a disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Are there are any nuclear reactors at risk from a Big One in California Not around here—there's one up by San Onofre but it's been turned off. There's been a lot of debate about nuclear reactors. Engineers argue they can make reactors safe, but there have been enough accidents over the years that for safety's sake they are tending not to build them in most places anymore.

So how prepared are cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles?

Both cities are among the best prepared for earthquakes in the U.S. There are codes for new buildings to make them stronger and more appropriate. We strengthen inspections especially at roads, bridges, ports, airports, hospitals and schools. The issue is always that fixing problems costs a fortune—we can’t just tear down all the buildings we know have problems and rebuild them. That would cripple the economy. So we're always making incremental steps to fix the worst problems at the moment that we can afford to address. In California, when there’s one of these big earthquakes, it won’t be like in the movies—the cities won't turn to rubble. There is some damage and some deaths, but the larger issue for a city as a whole will be getting running again—the impact on the economy, the cost of replacing buildings and getting everything started again. I mean it’s not as exciting—it doesn't make great Hollywood movies—but that's the biggest concern. In other countries it’s different. In China or Turkey or Iraq, the buildings are so bad that it really is terrifying when they’re are all falling down around you. The San Andreas extends into Mexico. If the fault breaks there of course the country would feel a tremendous impact. But in the U.S., most of the buildings will do okay. It’s more the damage to the infrastructure and getting started again that’s the problem.

If infrastructure doesn’t rebound, what effects will this have on California?

It's certainly in the realm of possibility that the earthquake causes something that cripples the economy for a long time. Nobody expected the Fukushima reactor to be a dominant problem in Japan’s 2011 earthquake, for example. There's always a small chance of some very serious unexpected problems. It's also possible that a big earthquake might have less effect than we expect. It's just very hard to predict. The Big One is worrisome for the government because it disrupts a large area. But for individuals, the moderate-size earthquakes that are right under our feet are often the worst threat. Los Angeles, for example is filled with faults, and many of them could have a magnitude seven earthquake. A magnitude seven on a smaller fault might well do more damage than the Big One on the San Andreas. The Big One is only part of the danger here.

So, should people living in California be worried about a Big One?

It shouldn't be on people's mind every minute—there's enough things to worry about without dreading earthquakes—but every year people should make sure they're prepared. That means making sure they're not sleeping where things are going to fall on them. It means making sure their water heater is strapped to the wall so it doesn't fall out and break the gas line. It means a little bit of planning. Fundamentally, you need to know what earthquakes are and how to react to them.

How can people protect themselves when they realize an earthquake has started?

The advice is to protect your head and chest—protect your personal safety. Duck, cover and hold is the standard advice and it’s good advice. If possible get under a desk or table, if not then be aware of what's falling and make sure you're not in the path of things falling.

How are scientists working to warn people about earthquakes?

We figure we might be able to eliminate maybe 10 to 30 percent of the impact of an earthquake by warning people when the shaking is coming. We keep looking for clues to predict earthquakes—we see suggestions that we call "weak correlations" to indicate small changes in danger, but there's no giveaway about how big an earthquake will be, even when it’s already started With early warning systems, people can duck, cover and hold faster, factories can shift their machinery to make it safer, computer companies can adjust their programs so that there isn’t so much disruption in financial markets, for example. There are a lot of little things we can do. We think we can reduce the impact, we certainly can't eliminate it.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Another shot that one of my 'friends' sent me while on vacation. Very nice of them. 

 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Dandy

I Could Use A Pup 'N' Taco Right About Now

Been Called The Patrick Mahomes of Surfing