THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Like the child who moved back home after college. 

SURF:
Remember that good hurricane Sergio swell last weekend? He's still here. Sergio was an odd storm. Most hurricanes form off of Mexico and head N towards us or W towards Hawaii. Sergio did both; first it went towards Hawaii, then it did a 180 and headed back towards us.

Pretty awesome- he gave us a week of surf. May have to give props to Sergio and name my next kid after him. All good things must come to an end though as the last real day of surf from Sergio will be Friday. Look for more head high S swell during the day and overhead sets in the OC.

We also have a small SW filling in tonight from the southern hemisphere that will keep us in rideable chest high+ surf through Saturday. By Sunday, most swells are gone and we're back to waist high+ waves. One thing to watch out for this weekend- we have a weak cold front moving through that may tap into moisture from dying tropical storm Sergio. Showers should start by Saturday morning and last into Sunday- which make the water quality suspect.

Tides this weekend are 3' at sunrise, up to 5' at lunch, and down to 1' at sunset. And water temps are still a manageable 67 degrees.

FORECAST:

Now that our hurricane season is over (allegedly), our attention turns to the Aleutians. Not much surf is on tap from Monday to Thursday- just small background NW/SW for maybe waist high waves, but models show a good storm forming in the N Pacific early in the week. We should see shoulder high NW swell on Friday into Saturday with head high surf in SD.

On it's heels is a southern hemisphere swell poised to arrive around the 22nd for chest high surf.

And behind that, forecast charts show a large southern hemisphere swell that may give us head high+ surf from the SW around October 27th. And in between all of that, I wouldn't be surprised to see another hurricane swell make an appearance before the month is over. To re-cap: not much surf to start the week but good waves next weekend and beyond. Make sure to keep up to date on the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf. 

WEATHER:

Pleasant weather this week + fun Sergio swell = good conditions all week. Tomorrow looks to be the same then the weak cold front mentioned above should arrive by Saturday. Rainfall could be up to 1/2" with this, due to moisture from Sergio getting drawn into this system. Monday looks to be dry and warm with a weak Santa Ana wind event into Wednesday. Another weak cold front is forecasted to move into the area the 2nd half of next week for more light showers. Looks like a little bit of everything the next 7 days.

BEST BET:
Tomorrow with a last gasp from Sergio or our first real NW swell next weekend.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

If you haven’t noticed by now, the 21st century has had lots of wild weather. Take last month for example; September gave the country heat and lots of rainfall, thanks in part to Hurricane Florence.  These factors ranked September 2018 as the fourth hottest and third wettest September on record for the contiguous United States.

By the end of September, the U.S. had experienced 11 billion-dollar weather disasters that included two winter storms, Western wildfires, drought, a hail storm, a spate of tornadoes and Florence.

Let’s take a closer look at the highlights from NOAA’s latest U.S. climate report:

September 2018:
The average September temperature across the contiguous U.S. was 67.8 degrees F (2.9 degrees above average), making it the fourth hottest September in the 124-year record, according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). States across the Southwest, and spanning the Mississippi River to the East Coast, saw above-average temperatures. Some areas of the Northwest and Great Plains had near- to below-average temperatures.

The average precipitation for September was 3.49 inches (1 inch above average), making it the third wettest September on record. Slow-moving Hurricane Florence dropped torrential rainfall that triggered record flooding in eastern parts of the Carolinas. Parts of the Southern Plains and Midwest also saw record-setting rainfall, while the West was mostly dry.

The year to date- January through September:
The average U.S. temperature for the year to date (January through September) was 57 degrees (2 degrees above average) – making it the eighth warmest such period on record. And with a national precipitation total of 25.2 inches (2 inches above normal), it was the 13th wettest YTD on record.

More stats of note:
Florence's grim aftermath: The hurricane’s prolonged storm surge and historic flooding was responsible for at least 51 deaths. The single highest rain total from Florence of 35.93 inches was recorded in Elizabethtown, N.C.

Hurricane Olivia soaked Hawaii: Olivia – the first tropical cyclone to make landfall on the Hawaiian islands of either Maui or Lanai – brought more than 12 inches of rain and destructive flooding.

Drought improved: September ended with 29 percent of the contiguous U.S. in drought, down from 34.4 percent measured at the end of August.

So what wild weather does late fall/winter hold in store for us here in California? Well, El Nino neutral conditions still reign at of the beginning of October, but we’re starting to see some clearer signs of the development of a true El Niño. Forecasters estimate that El Niño conditions will develop in the next few months, and there’s a 70-75% chance El Niño will be present through the winter.  Most computer models are currently predicting a weak El Niño event though. So expect a little more rain and a couple more swells than usual. I’ll take it.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Hope someone builds a retirement home there because I'd really like to retire there. And yes, I'll be surfing when I'm 100.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
Effective
Cat-like Reflexes
Wear My Gath Helmet In The Shower In Case I Slip