Kind of like winning the lottery. Kind of.
SURF:
Great weather and fun surf lately feels like I won the Surf Lottery. If there was such a thing. Which begs the question: If you had a choice to win the lottery- but had to give up surfing OR... have good surf the rest of your life but had to work, what would you take? You know my answer: Both- I'd be a pro surfer. Anyway, where was I? Oh- the good waves and weather lately.
We had some new NW fill in today for shoulder high sets at best spots and a touch of SW. Look for the NW to fill in a touch more tomorrow and peak with consistent chest to shoulder high sets and shoulder to head high surf in SD. Combined with the Santa Ana winds in the AM, could be darn fun. Again. Saturday backs off to the chest high range and Sunday is waist high with chest high sets in SD. On that note- make sure to get on it tomorrow! Water temps have dropped due to all the offshore winds and sit around 65 degrees.
And tides this weekend are 4.5' at sunrise (7 AM), down to 1.5' about lunch time, and back up to 4.5' at sunset (6:15 PM).
FORECAST:
After a slow Sunday, things start to pick up late Monday with new SW swell in the shoulder high range in far north county. That lasts into Wednesday morning.
By Thursday, the north Pacific sends us shoulder high NW again with bigger sets in SD.
And on it's heels is another fun SW swell in the shoulder high range by next Saturday. Nothing big but lots of swells from all over the Pacific next week. Make sure to keep track of the waves and weather Twitter/North County Surf.
WEATHER:
Looks like the Santa Ana type conditions are not going away- yet. We've got a couple more days of warm air temps, breezy NE winds in the AM, and cool nights.
By Sunday, weak low pressure to the N moves through the western states and will push the Santa Ana away. Look for a return of cooler temps and more night/morning low clouds for most of next week. And no rain in the near future.
BEST BET:
Lots of choices the next 7 days: Fun NW tomorrow, better SW on Tuesday, fun NW again on Thursday, OR... more SW next weekend. Again.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
As you may have read in THE Surf Report the past few months, looks like we're headed towards a mild El Nino this winter. What does that exactly mean for us here in Southern California, the West Coast, and the rest of the US? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) just came out with their outlook and let's keep our fingers crossed that Southern California we'll get some drought relief. Here's what NOAA had to say:
A mild winter could be in store for much of the United States this winter according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. In the U.S. Winter Outlook for December through February, above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern and western U.S., Alaska and Hawaii.
Additionally, El Nino has a 70 to 75 percent chance of developing. “We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.” El Nino is an ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. During the winter, typical El Nino conditions in the U.S. can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North.
Other climate patterns that can affect winter weather are challenging to predict on a seasonal time scale. The Arctic Oscillation influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and could result in below-average temperatures in the eastern part of the U.S. The Madden-Julian Oscillation can contribute to heavy precipitation events along the West Coast – which could play a large role in shaping the upcoming winter, especially if El Nino is weak, as forecasters predict.
The 2018 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February):
Temperature:
Warmer-than-normal conditions are anticipated across much of the northern and western U.S., with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains. The Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures. No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures.
Precipitation:
Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the U.S., and up into the Mid-Atlantic. Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation this winter. Drier-than-average conditions are most likely in parts of the northern Rockies and Northern Plains, as well as in the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley.
Drought:
Drought conditions are likely to persist across portions of the Southwest, Southern California, the central Great Basin, central Rockies, Northern Plains and portions of the interior Pacific Northwest.Drought conditions are anticipated to improve in areas throughout Arizona and New Mexico, southern sections of Utah and Colorado, the coastal Pacific Northwest and the Central Plains.
NOAA’s seasonal outlooks give the likelihood that temperatures and precipitation will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are expected to change, but the outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The next update will be available on Nov. 15.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Considering how many guys are out at Swamis, Rincon, Snapper Rocks, and Lowers on a good swell, I'm still amazed there's still empty waves on this planet. More proof that you need to save those pennies and get out there on surfari!
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Snazzy
Doing Everything I Can To Get Ariana And Pete Back Together
Asked Simon To Make My Custom With 3 Fins And The Rest They Say Is History
