A bounty of riches.
SURF:
Been really fun lately. Not sure what I did to deserve this but I'm trying not to jinx it.
Had a good SW fill in a couple days ago along with some background NW and it's been hanging around ever since.
For the weekend, we get a little reinforcement from the NW tomorrow and another small SW on Saturday; end result is more chest high surf with shoulder high sets. Just enough to keep the heart racing.
Water is still hanging around 65 degrees and tides this weekend are 3' at sunrise, up to 6' before lunch, and down quickly to 0' at sunset.
FORECAST:
Monday starts to see a new WNW fill in with shoulder high sets late in the day. This was a good storm that formed a few days ago and by Tuesday morning, we'll have head high sets with overhead waves in SD. Wednesday starts to drop to the chest high range and Thursday/Friday we're back to waist high+ NW.
Further out, models show a small storm forming off Antarctica this weekend that may give the OC chest high waves next weekend.
After that, the Aleutians may come alive again for more head high WNW around November 7th. Make sure to keep track of the waves and weather at Twitter/North County Surf.
WEATHER:
Still pleasant weather around here. After a slight taste of winter a couple weeks ago with brief showers, we're back to mild weather and moderate Santa Anas. Look for high pressure to build over the weekend with dense fog at the beaches in the AM then sunny skies and temps in the mid-70's. Low pressure moves by to the N late Sunday/Monday and we get cooler temps and more low clouds. High pressure then builds again mid-week and we're back to mild Santa Ana conditions and temps in the mid-70's. And no rain sight.
BEST BET:
Fun surf this weekend but that new NW late Monday into Tuesday is the real winner.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
As you already know by now, it's been an active hurricane season on both coasts. While the Atlantic Hurricanes Florence and Michael have rightfully gotten most of our attention lately, climate conditions in the Pacific this summer churned out one storm after another. We’ve seen a whopping 22 named storms in our region so far this year, but even that sheer number does no justice to the intensity of this hurricane season. This Pacific hurricane season has been the most intense one that meteorologists have ever recorded- and we still have 5 weeks to go. Popular Science explains why:
The Pacific hurricane season covers all storms that form between the western coast of North America and 180°W, which is also known as the International Date Line. The eastern Pacific basin stretches from the western coast of North America to 140°W longitude. The central Pacific basin, which covers Hawaii, stretches from 140°W to 180°W. Meteorologists and climatologists often combine the two basins since most of the storms that cross through the central Pacific originated in the eastern Pacific.
Storms that form west of the international date line are still tropical cyclones, but instead of being called hurricanes, they’re known as typhoons. Typhoons are tracked separately from hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific because of geopolitical reasons and the fact that storms in the western Pacific are influenced by different factors than storms in the rest of the ocean.
The eastern and central Pacific basins have seen an incredible 22 named storms so far this year. The season began with Hurricane Aletta’s formation on June 5 and continued through Major Hurricane Willa last weekend. 12 of those named storms became hurricanes, and 10 of those storms strengthened into a category four or five at one point during their lifespan. 10 storms with winds reaching category four or five status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a record for the most storms we’ve ever seen achieve that strength during one Pacific hurricane season.
The sheer energy released by these storms places this year in record territory. Meteorologists measure the strength of a hurricane season through Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). ACE measures the energy produced by a storm by calculating the maximum sustained winds of the storm over its lifespan. The average ACE value for the eastern and central Pacific basins combined is about 121. The ACE generated by this year’s storms through October 25th is 313- almost triple what you’d see in an average year and the most intense year on record.
For context, the entire Pacific—from Asia to North America—is traditionally more active than the Atlantic basin. The eastern Pacific alone typically sees about 15 named storms in an average year compared to just 12 over in the Atlantic. The Pacific is usually busier than the Atlantic because sea surface temperatures are warmer and there are fewer factors present—such as dry air or wind shear—to inhibit the development of storms. The developing El Niño in the eastern Pacific this year is also likely boosting the development of storms and helping them reach their full potential.
Unlike the Atlantic, the list of storm names in the eastern Pacific includes the letters X, Y, and Z to account for the heightened activity. It would be a heavy lift for this hurricane season to exhaust the English alphabet and continue into the Greek alphabet—which has only happened once, during the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season—but it’s not a completely implausible scenario at this point.
Despite the number and strength of storms so far this year, relatively few have threatened land at full strength in the central or eastern Pacific. Hawaii faced the greatest tropical threats this year, feeling the effects of Hurricane Lane in August and Tropical Storm Olivia in September. Lane produced the second-highest rainfall total ever recorded during a tropical cyclone anywhere in the United States, dropping 52 inches of rain on the Big Island as it passed just south of the island chain. Hurricane Walaka, the only storm to actually form in the central Pacific this year, made a close brush with Johnston Atoll in October before heading out to open waters.
Thankfully, prevailing winds across the region usually sweep these storms westward, sending them out to sea where they perish in cooler waters, but there are notable exceptions. Storms hit or brush Mexico fairly regularly and can cause significant wind damage to coastal communities and produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across inland mountainous areas. 7 storms this year either made landfall in or closely brushed Mexico. Luckily, 6 of those storms were tropical storms or weaker, and they were predominately rainmakers. #7 unfortunately was Major Hurricane Willa this past weekend and slammed into mainland Mexico with 160 mph winds. The remnant moisture from Hurricanes Bud, Rosa, and Sergio produced flooding rains when they moved into the southwestern United States.
And with 5 weeks to go and warmer than usual water temps due to the building mild El Nino, expect the season to squeeze out another storm before it officially ends November 30th.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
If you haven't heard, the event of the year is happening next Thursday, November 1st. OK, maybe I'm a little biased since the North County Board Meeting and I will be hosting it, but still, it's going to be an awesome time. Why? Pro surfer Damien Hobgood will be joining us at Witch Creek Winery in downtown Carlsbad to narrate a slideshow from acclaimed surf photographer Aaron Checkwood. In addition to the great insight and imagery, we'll be having a silent auction to benefit Waves 4 Water and the CAHP Widows and Orphans Trust Fund. Oh- and wine and appetizers in a great setting. Sound like fun? Then grab your significant other and join us! We have a few spots left and it's first come first serve, so check out the info below to reserve your spot asap:
- General Admission 6:30-9:30 PM ($40 individual ticket/$60 couple)
- Includes: Damien Hobgood x EPK poster, wine tasting/appetizers, slideshow with Aaron and Damien, silent auction
- VIP: 5:30-9:30 PM ($50 individual/$80 couple)
- Includes: EARLY entry, SIGNED Damien Hobgood x EPK poster, SPECIAL wine selections in the Witch Creek cellar, slideshow with Aaron and Damien, and silent auction
Please send a check asap (payable to North County Board Meeting) or cash to Agency 73, 244 N Coast Hwy 101, Encinitas, CA 92024 to reserve your spot- or contact fellow NCBM member Rich Clark at rclark@fuzionpayments.com for credit card payments.
Thank you for the support and hope to see you next week!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
No thank you. All yours. And if you must see more, check out Russell Holliday's work here.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Civilized
Can't Wait To Board The Titanic II
3 X Coca-Cola Surfabout Winner '88, '92-'93
