THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Offshore to onshore.  

SURF:

Amazing conditions the past couple of days with a little bit of surf led to fun surf if you picked your spot accordingly. Along with fading SW on Friday, we've got a little bump from the W tomorrow which will result in chest high sets and 1 more day of great weather. 

Saturday starts off on the small side with the return of the sea breeze then all heck breaks loose on Sunday as a cold front moves through the region. Look for gusty SW winds on Sunday, showers, and overhead NW storm surf. Glad to see the surf pick up but pretty much a mess unfortunately. Here's the tides and sun this weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset are:
• 6:17 AM sunrise 
• 5:46 PM sunset 
• You can basically paddle out at 6 AM and paddle in at 6 PM. A full 12 hours of shredding (if you're built like Laird Hamilton)

• Water temps are in the high 50's

• And tides are WAY mellow this weekend:
• 1' at sunrise
• 3' at lunch
• 2' at sunset

FORECAST:

Once the  so-called storm exits the region on Monday, we've got leftover head high NW with a touch of SW. Tuesday drops further to the chest high range and Wednesday to Saturday we're left with waist high surf. 

A storm is forecasted to develop off Antarctica this weekend which should give us chest high surf next Sunday BUT... models also show another cold front moving through our area at the same time. The NW may pick up too- but it could be windy just like this Sunday. Typical. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then. 

BEST BET: 

• Friday with a little bit of NW/SW and clean conditions
• Monday with head high sets from the NW and HOPEFULLY clean conditions. If not, wait for Tuesday with leftover NW/SW. 

WEATHER:

Warm sunny days with strong offshore winds the past few days will transition to a cold cloudy day and strong onshore winds by Sunday. Friday looks to be nice with light winds and temps in the high 60's while on Saturday, the low clouds/fog increase with temps in the mid-60s. By Sunday a windy cold front moves in and showers increase. It's not looking to be a big rainmaker (most likely 1/10"-1/25" along the coast) but the winds will be 25 mph+. Temps by Monday will also drop like a rock to the high 50's. Things will clear out Monday and nice weather will return by Tuesday. After that, we could get another windy cold front next Sunday. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

I reported earlier this month there's been some strong winds in the Sierras lately. Not lots of snow unfortunately- but lots of wind. Some reaching the 200 mph (unverified) mark. For us down here, not so much. BUT... yesterday's Santa Ana wind event was impressive nonetheless. So much so, we may have broken a record of our own here in San Diego County: a 106 mph wind gust. Here's what the San Diego Union Tribune had to say:

Santa Ana winds gusted from 70 to 106 mph in San Diego County’s mountains and valleys early Wednesday, making driving hazardous in many areas, closing schools and knocking out power to about 3,000 SDG&E customers. The 106 mph gust, which set a record, was reported at Sill Hill, a high, remote spot in the Cuyamaca Mountains in East County. The reading is roughly equal to the winds that blow during a category 3 hurricane.

The strong, dry winds toppled at least two big rigs along Interstate 8 and prompted one school district to cancel classes because of safety concerns. A large pine tree also fell onto a home in Encinitas, damaging its roof but leaving residents uninjured. The first big rig was blown over about midnight on eastbound I-8 near state Route 79 in the Japatul Valley, said California Highway Patrol Officer Jim Bettencourt. The second high-profile vehicle to go on its side occurred shortly before 6:25 a.m. on eastbound I-8 at Buckman Springs Road. Both trucks were left on their sides for a time because it was too windy to remove them.

The Santa Anas also raised temperatures across the region. San Diego International Airport hit 77, 12 degrees above average. Forecasters expected today will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures in the low 80's at the coast. And if you didn't notice on Tuesday, temps along the coast were in the low 60's due to the strong onshore winds. Normally temperatures peak late afternoon each day- but as the Santa Ana kicked in Tuesday evening and the sun started to set- the temperatures actually rose 10 degrees to the low 70's.

Winds were thought to be a factor when a pine tree, estimated to be about 75 feet tall, fell onto a house in Encinitas on Wednesday. The tree toppled onto the home on Wotan Drive near Santa Fe Drive around 6:30 a.m. The tree knocked down utility lines and SDG&E crews cut off power to the home. Public works crews were working to get the tree removed so damage to the home could be assessed, said Encinitas Deputy Fire Chief Robert Ford. He said he was surprised winds were so gusty along the coast. “I’m grateful there were no injuries,” he said.

Forecasters said winds were blowing out of the valleys into Oceanside, where there were gusts to 20 mph. Sample of Wednesday’s highest winds:

• Sill Hill, Cuyamaca Mountain: 106 mph
• Big Black Mountain (near Ramona): 87 mph
• Santa Ysabel Ranch: 77 mph
• North Descanso: 75 mph
• Sunrise Highway: 68 mph
• Pine Valley: 67 mph
• Mt. Laguna Observatory: 66 mph
• Harrison Peak: 61 mph
• Potrero: 59 mph
• Crestwood: 58 mph
• Rancho Santa Fe: 58 mph
• Viejas: 58 mph
• Hodges Dam: 53 mph
• Warners: 52 mph
• Cameron: 51 mph
• Julian: 49 mph
• Alpine: 49 mpjh
• Olivenhain: 48 mph
• Barona Mesa: 43 mph
• Mt. Woodson: 42 mph

BEST OF THE BLOG:

It's official: The Palm Springs area is officially home to 500,000 retirees, 100 golf courses, and soon to be 3 wave pools; one by Kelly, one by Kerr, and one by Kalani (I know, all of the names start with the letter 'K'. Weird). Now before you poo-poo the idea, Kalani Robb's looks to be close to completion as they are just retrofitting the old Wet 'n' Wild pool to give it the 'Waco' type wave. For Josh Kerr's pool (in which he's an ambassador), they have cleared most hurdles and unless they run out of money, this one should open within 2 years. And Kelly Slater's pool is the most ambitious; developers claim it will be the "largest, rideable open-barrel, human-made waves in the world". Along with plans for a 150 room hotel, 600 homes priced between $1-5 million dollars, and multiple restaurants, it's a moon shot. Fortunately though, the site has already been approved for development, and they hope they can secure city approval to start construction early next year and open for business in mid-2022. Since the majority of our surf around here is small and cold, I welcome anyone's attempt to make rideable surf that I can trunk it in. And with 24 million people in the greater Southern California area, these pools actually have a chance of making it. Make sure to read the details here, only on the North County Surf blog! 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

If you know, then you'll go. Might be my favorite spot in the world (since I haven't been to Tavarua yet). 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Groundbreaking

Going To Daytona Beach For Spring Break 1 Last Time

Developing A Surfboard With Tesla That Has An Autopaddle Feature

The New Desert Point(s)

If you’ve been reading the North County Surf blog over the years (and I know all 8 of you have been), then you most likely have seen my obsession with wave pools . Nothing will replace the ocean of course, but the allure of being able to surf most anywhere has been appealing for obvious reasons. Have to spend 4 days in Sacramento with the in-laws for Thanksgiving? Wouldn’t a quick surf session ease the pain? How about a business trip to Phoenix? All those fluorescent lights in the tradeshow starting to melt your brain? A quick surf session can relax your tensions. Or the wifey-poo wants to vacation in a big city but you’ve got boardshorts and barrels on your mind? Squeezing in a surf between art galleries will do the trick. As we all know, surfing is addicting and one of the great joys in life. Everybody from Newport to Nantucket wants that California lifestyle. The Association of Volleyball Professionals tried to sell that dream back in the 80’s with tournaments in Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Arizona, and Massachusetts as well as your typical California, Florida, and Hawaii locales. But the lack of vision (and funds) relegated the beach lifestyle to just the beach. Stand up paddle boarding has literally taken a stand the past decade- and helped prop up the surf industry in the process- but it’s still missing that spark for anyone outside of surfing.

What could bring surf culture to middle America and beyond as well as stoke out the avid surfer? If you guessed wave pools, then you see the big picture. Now just plunking down a wave pool in the middle of nowhere isn’t like building a Field of Dreams. It costs a lot to run something that large. Just ask the Surf Ranch in Lemoore. What you need is a built-in large population to keep feeding money into the machine as well as a reason to stay at the pool and keep feeding it more money. That’s why making it a real destination is so important. If you can get the surfers to spend money on their session, lodging, restaurants, the surf shop at the resort, etc., then it works. And in the case of a wave pool in Southern California, the resort(s) has access to almost 25 million people that can drive there. Factor in people wanting to fly in from around the country- and world- and you’ve got a winner. Ski resorts can pull it off, why not a surf resort? The downside of a ski resort of course is you need to plan carefully when you go- may or not be snow- may or may not be crowded. With a surf resort, you set a pool time (like a tee time in golf), and you’re GUARANTEED to get UNCROWDED waves.

If you know me personally, I’ve probably mentioned this scenario to you a thousand times: Let’s say lately that the air temps have been cold, sky is overcast, waves are crowded, NW wind won’t stop, water temps are frigid (even with a 4/3, booties, gloves, and a hood), you haven’t seen a wave over waist high in weeks (pretty much sums up our current winter), AND it’s walled. Long story short, you’re dying to surf at least some chest high uncrowded waves in boardshorts. So I give you a ring at work on Friday and say “Grab the kids after school, pick up the wife, we’re headed to Palm Springs for the weekend to get some waves…”. 2 hours later, you’re eating steak at Mastro’s on Friday night and you have a 9 AM pool time Saturday morning. Saturday rolls around, the wife is sitting in a cabana with drink service, you and the kids are getting a barrels and turns in the wave pool with trunks on, and your buddies are heckling you from poolside cabana. That afternoon you hit a few balls on the range and top it off with a nice dinner at the resort. And for Sunday? Get another quick session in while the wife hits the spa (and if she surfs, you’re one lucky guy). Next thing you know, you’re back at home in San Diego by 4pm on Sunday and refreshed for the work week. All the while, your bros that DIDN’T make the trip got 2’ foggy windy freezing Beacons with 50 of their not so best friends. And one of them got stung by a stingray.

So where I am headed with this story?! WAAAAAAY back in 2014, I ran a story about wave pools popping up all around the world- specifically a Quiksilver themed resort in Palm Desert. That has since given way to the Thermal Beach Club (which will incorporate the DSRT Surf Resort and includes Josh Kerr, the Hobgood brothers, and Shane Beschen as ambassadors). Forbes Magazine did an in-depth article recently on the development and wave pool:

Consider it the new California Gold Rush as developers are planning to forever change the massive dry desert land of Southern California. With numerous developments being created in the area, a new luxurious private residential development and surf park are planned to break ground with a 21-acre man-made lagoon in the Coachella Valley located 25 miles southeast of Palm Springs, California.

The Riverside County planning commission recently approved plans for Thermal Beach Club to be developed on Kohl Ranch, a 2,200-acre property in the area of Thermal in the Coachella Valley.

The Kohl department store family owns Kohl Ranch, the land where the surf club is being developed. Plans for the Thermal Beach Club property include 326 units on 210 resident lots, bungalows, villas and estates; a 16,000-square foot recreational center with a spa and exercise room; an 8,000-square foot pool and bar; a 4,500-square foot clubhouse restaurant with bar, retail shop, and kitchen.

Designed as a high-end luxury community with five star resort amenities, the highlight of the Thermal Beach Club will be the surf lagoon, which will include wave-making technology to simulate ocean waves.

The area is currently home to the Thermal Club, a club and resort where wealthy race car owners buy memberships and build mansions around a private racing track.

The new Thermal Beach Club project is being developed by WhiteStar Development LLC and will tap into existing water rights. The development will incorporate American Wave Machines PerfectSwell technology, which is also used at the 2-acre BSR Surf Resort in Texas. AWM is a major wave pool, surf venue, and wave technology brand and produces some of the most unique surf experiences in the world, including Montreal and Waco, Texas.

According to AWM, “The PerfectSwell Phased Array Control System controls air pressure firing patterns and sequences to create unlimited wave types. It can easily generate ten large waves per minute — or a wave every six seconds. The waves generated by the PerfectSwell system measure an average of three to eight feet in height, with ride lengths limited only by pool size.” Surfing legend Kelly Slater’s famed Surf Ranch uses a different system, SurfStream, which is an endless standing wave made by continuously pumping water.

The company documents that the vacant land allocated for the project includes sufficient water rights to provide for the 20-acre lagoon and the future option of adding 70 acres of additional Watersport lagoons. Once complete, there will be 326 units on 210 resident lots, a 16,000 square-foot recreational center with spa, and a 4,500 square foot clubhouse restaurant with bar and shops, including the addition of water features and wave pool.

In the middle of all of this, is the former Wet ‘n’ Wild water park in Palm Springs. I’ve spent many a summer there watching my kids go nuts on the water slides, Flowrider, and so-called wave pool- which is a kid friendly 1’ close out. Kalani Robb and Cheyne Magnusson (formerly of BSR/Waco wave pool fame) are part of a group that’s throwing $50 million dollars at the former water park to turn it into the Palm Springs Surf Club.

The brilliance on their part is that the infrastructure is already there with the water park and pseudo wave pool- they just need to tweak a few things; like using American Wave Machines technology for the pool (i.e. BSR/Waco). Based on various reports, the open date should be later this year. There won’t be a resort on site, but if you feel like ballin’, the Ritz Carlton Rancho Mirage is down the street.

And if 2 wave pools weren’t enough, a report came out recently from the LA Times that the desert area will be getting a THIRD wave pool by 2022. Here’s the full story:

A luxury resort proposed for the Coachella Valley is set to serve surfers instead of golfers with a wave-making machine that could stir up water for professional surfing competitions or kids playing on foam boards.

The big waves are to roll at Coral Mountain, a proposed development that would combine a hotel and housing on 400 acres in La Quinta that have already been approved for a golf-centered community.

But with more than 100 golf courses already serving the region, the builders hope to instead stand out with a $200-million complex built around a surfing basin created by Kelly Slater Wave Co. The Solana Beach engineering firm founded by surfing legend Kelly Slater says it will provide the largest, rideable open-barrel, human-made waves in the world.

By substituting surfing and other adventure sports such as rock climbing for golf, developers Meriwether Cos. and Big Sky Wave Developments intend to create a new kind of neighborhood for the Palm Springs area, which has seen a demographic shift in recent years toward younger visitors and residents.

As evidence of the change, consider the thousands drawn by the annual Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival and the proliferation of hip hotels meant to appeal to millennials.

Coral Mountain would be a master-planned “wave-based community,” the first of its kind, developer Garrett Simon of Meriwether Cos. said, with a 150-room hotel and as many as 600 homes, mostly single-family residences priced between $1 million and $5 million. There would be a private club and multiple dining venues.

In addition to the 18-million-gallon surf basin, the features might include a network of ponds that hotel guests and residents could navigate on stand-up slow-moving paddle boards or decidedly faster electric hydrofoil boards that lift riders out of the water.

For enthusiasts of land-based adventure sports, there would be snaking skateboarding runs, bike pump tracks and trails for mountain bikes and perhaps electric motorcycles.

Despite its aquatic focus, Coral Mountain would use a fraction of the amount of water required by a golf course, Simon said. Golf courses use as much as 1 million gallons a day to stay green, he said, while Coral Mountain would give up about 18 million gallons a year in evaporation.

The developers’ pivot from golf to more active sports also reflects the declining fortunes of the golf industry.

Hundreds of U.S. golf courses have closed in recent years as the numbers of golfers and rounds played have fallen, according to industry reports. An oversupply of courses, which were often built to sell nearby homes, has contributed to the golf industry’s challenges.

The Coral Mountain site was to be the second phase of the adjacent Andalusia Country Club, which opened in 2006, Simon said.

But, as the Desert Sun reported, the golf venue struggled with home sales and country club membership after the recession that started in 2008. Meriwether Cos. acquired the property last May.

Because the site has already been approved for development, Simon hopes his company can secure city approval to start construction on Coral Mountain by early next year and open for business in mid-2022.

It would be one of a handful of surf parks planned for the Coachella Valley including the addition of a surfing basin to the former Wet ‘n Wild water park in Palm Springs as part of a major renovation. The shuttered attraction is expected to reopen this year as Palm Springs Surf Club.

Another proposed surf resort and residential complex, the Thermal Beach Club, has drawn opposition from local activists in the unincorporated eastern part of Coachella Valley, concerned its luxury would be a jarring contrast with the impoverished community. They say Thermal needs affordable housing more than it needs glamour.

La Quinta, in contrast, is a resort city that thrives on tourism. “We haven’t received any feedback or concerns regarding affordable housing” from city leaders, Simon said. “Employment is important to us and we are aware of the need for affordable housing in certain areas.”

Coral Mountain would be the first of a group of inland surfing venues in the West employing wave technology developed by Kelly Slater Wave Co., said Michael B. Schwab of Big Sky Wave Developments, an investor who was impressed by Slater’s existing prototype in the agricultural San Joaquin Valley.

Slater’s Surf Ranch has turned tiny Lemoore into a “surf mecca,” Schwab said, in part because machine-made waves can speed the learning process of a difficult sport. It did for him.

“I knew that if I had a repeatable, perfect wave I could get better,” he said. And what he learned “transferred into real-world surfing.”

Schwab hopes that Coral Mountain can entice expert surfers but also introduce novices daunted by the prospect of trying to catch waves they can ride in the ocean.

About 25 people could surf at a time, with five or so riding the main wave and 10 surfers on each of the two end bays of the basin, where the waves would be smaller.

With surfing and other active sports, Coral Mountain “will be for people who want to get out of their comfort zone,” Schwab said.

Now if you’re thinking 3 wave pools in the Palm Springs area is overkill, just remember it’s also home to 100 golf courses that somehow have survived the past 70 years. If 100 courses can make it, 3 pools can make it. Can’t wait.

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

So close I can taste it (saltwater that is). 

SURF:

Nice conditions this past week but not much surf. 

We had a mix of SW and W swells for waist high surf and chest high sets for the best spots (you know who you are). For Friday we're back to waist high waves as a weak cold front swings through Friday night into Saturday. 

Good news is that the surf will pick up Saturday afternoon. Bad news is that's it's due to the windy cold front. Look for chest high+ surf late on Saturday and messy conditions. The front should move through by Sunday morning so we could be looking at chest high surf and clean conditions. In summary: small/clean Friday, bigger/junkier late Saturday, fun early Sunday. And tides/sun this weekend are:

• Sunrise and sunset are:
• 6:25 AM sunrise 
• 5:40 PM sunset 

• Water temps are still in the mid to high 50's  

• And we've got a bit of a tide swing this weekend:
• 4' at sunrise
• 5.5' mid-morning
• -1' around 3pm
• 1' at sunset

FORECAST:

It looks like after a month or so of uneventful surf, we may be on to something finally. Not big enough to turn on the Emergency Boardriding System, but still fun nonetheless. 

After the NW from Sunday winds down, we get another shot of NW windswell arriving on Monday as well as a new SW filling in. This was from a moderate sized storm last week of Antarctica and we should see shoulder high+ surf from the combo swells. The NW starts to back off on Tuesday but the SW hits it's peak with more shoulder high sets at best S swell spots in northern SD and the OC. Wednesday holds in the chest high range and Thursday is back to waist high+ from the SW. 

On Friday we get WNW groundswell for chest high surf in northern SD county and shoulder high+ NW in southern SD BUT... we may have another storm move into the region next weekend. 

After that, we get a little chest high boost from the SSW around the 1st of March 

AND... more waist-chest high SW around the 3rd. Nothing huge but plenty fun and it looks like the southern hemisphere is awakening from it's hibernation. That means warm water and hurricanes must be right around the corner! Jinx! Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then. 

BEST BET: 

• Sunday if things clean up. 
• Or late Monday into Tuesday with good combo swell 

WEATHER:

Looks like rain finally? Or should I say the mellower low key brother of rain called 'showers' (and of course the distant even quieter cousin of showers is named 'fog'). Back to the showers though- we've got cool overcast conditions on tap for Friday which will lead to 1/4" of showers in the OC and up to 1/2" in SD on Saturday. If you're itching to snowboard (not sure why it would make you itch unless you haven't washed your snowboard pants in a few seasons), the San Bernardino mountains should get 1-2" of the white fluffy stuff. Not much but better than it has been. Sunday the storm exits the region and we're left with cool clear conditions. Most of next week looks to be sunny with light offshore winds in the AM then maybe a better storm with real rain (like you're supposed to get in the middle of winter) towards next weekend. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As the earth gets warmer every year, the storms seem to be getting stronger. Now that the 2010's are behind us, who took the cake as the worst storm in the U.S. the past decade? As you probably guessed- Hurricane Harvey. Can't believe that it was only 2 1/2 short years ago that parts of Houston received 5' of rain in just a few short days (that's feet- not inches mind you). Here's the official report from Newsweek:

Hurricane Harvey was the worst extreme weather event to affect the United States in the previous decade, according to a report published in the meteorological magazine Weatherwise. Using data from the National Hurricane Center and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the report ranks extreme weather events according to resulting deaths and injuries, associated economic costs, size, and meteorological rarity. "Every year that goes by seems to bring a new round of record-breaking weather events, many with devastating consequences," Douglas Le Comte, Weatherwise contributing editor and author of the report, wrote. "Powerful hurricanes that bring large economic and human losses, massive wildfires, floods and droughts, and record-smashing heat waves."

"We often talk here at Weatherwise about the need to track these events to gauge how our climate is shifting in a warming world," he wrote. "As we enter the next decade of the 21st century, we wanted to take a look back at some of the biggest weather stories in the United States and their impacts." Hurricane Harvey was a Category 4 storm which devastated Texas and Louisiana in August and September, 2017. It was the wettest storm on record, producing an incredible 30-60 inches rain which caused catastrophic flooding—particularly in the Houston-Beaumont area. In fact, at one point more than a third of Houston was underwater. Meanwhile, the 60.58 inches of rainfall recorded near Beaumont was the highest total for a tropical cyclone ever measured in the United States. So extreme was the rainfall produced by Harvey that a study conducted for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers by MetStat estimated that 72-hour totals for the storm would expected to be seen just once every 86,000 years. Other factors that contributed to Harvey's top ranking on the list were the fact that the storm directly caused at least 68 deaths. It also had a huge economic cost totaling around $125 billion, making it the second-costliest on record after Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

"It is tough to overestimate the impact Harvey had on Texas and the region," Le Comte told Newsweek. "It hits on all cylinders when it comes to rarity, given the way the storm made landfall south of Houston, came back out to the Gulf, and became almost stationary as it swirled around, hurling enormous amounts of moisture inland." Harvey is followed on the list by hurricanes Sandy and Maria which made landfall in 2012 and 2017 respectively. Sandy was one of the most intense and damaging storms to ever strike the U.S. East Coast, flooding the Jersey Shore and low-lying areas of New York City and Long Island, causing around $70 billion worth of damage. "Sandy was a close second," Le Comte said. "'Superstorm Sandy' was officially 'Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy' as it had transitioned to a mid-latitude extratropical storm before making landfall on the New Jersey coast. The destruction caused $70 billion in damage, making it the third costliest on record." "I could go on and on about how unique this storm was, but will just mention that Sandy's impact is still being felt now, as there are signs posted at New York City area subway stops advising riders that repairs to the previously flooded subway platforms are ongoing in 2020!" Hurricane Maria, meanwhile—a Category 4 storm—devastated Puerto Rico after causing damage in the U.S. Virgin Islands. In what was the worst natural disaster to strike the island in modern history, the storm is thought to have claimed around 3,000 lives, while severely damaging infrastructure across the territory.

The top five on the ranking is completed by Hurricane Irma which struck the U.S. Virgin Islands and Florida in September 2017; and the intense drought that affected the Corn Belt between June and August 2012. In sixth place comes the tornado outbreak of April-May, 2011, during which hundreds of twisters wreaked havoc across parts of the country, claiming nearly 500 lives. This outbreak included the largest recorded number of tornadoes produced by a single weather system. In seventh place is the drought experienced by the Southern Plains between October 2010 and September 2011, which was blamed for nearly 100 deaths and $14 billion in economic losses. And in eighth spot are the devastating wildfires that affected California between 2017 and 2019. The final events on the list are Hurricane Michael which made landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast in October 2018, and the severe California drought that lasted for four years between 2012 and 2015.

In total, the 10 extreme events on the list resulted in the deaths of more than 4,000 people while costing over $400 billion in damages.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Looking forward to this in the near future (getting waves that is, not this empty New Zealand beach break. Actually, if I had the money, then yes, I would be looking forward to this empty New Zealand beach break). 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Dreamy

Already Have My Bracket Filled Out

World's Foremost Expert On Wave Pool Surf Forecasting

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

YOU are such a good small wave surfer. 

SURF:

Positive thinking here people! 

Small clean surf this past week has been fun... but not good. Just one of those weather patterns that we need to embrace in the short term. And praying wouldn't hurt either. Still no major storms in the Pacific resulting in small surf just about everywhere in California with more small- but at least rideable- surf in the near future. Look for background NW/SW Friday for waist high+ surf. 

We may though get a little bump from the NW on Saturday/Sunday for chest high surf in SD, but that's about it. Nice weather is on tap this weekend so at least the small surf won't get blown to bits. And here's the tide/sun specs for the weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset are:
• 6:33 AM sunrise (just enough light to paddle out at 6)
• 5:32 PM sunset (just enough light to paddle in at 6)

• Water temps are still in the mid to high 50's  

• And tides this weekend are pretty mellow:
• 2' at sunrise
• 0' mid-morning
• 3' mid-afternoon
• 2' at sunset

FORECAST:

Still nothing big on the horizon but we do have a couple little swells coming. 

First up is a fun NW on Tuesday for chest high surf. There was also a small early season storm off New Zealand last week which will give us waist high waves on Tuesday too with chest high surf towards the OC. The combination of both swells will give us chest high surf and shoulder high sets at the spots that pick up both swells. That will last into Wednesday. The 2nd half of next week looks small but we may have a slight waist-chest NW around the 22nd.

Models though show a storm off the Aleutians mid-week as well as a better storm of New Zealand, which could give us shoulder high+ surf around the 25th of February from the NW/SW. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then. 

BEST BET: 

Tuesday with fun combo swells, or if the forecast charts hold up, Tuesday the 25th with better combo swells. 

WEATHER:

Rain, rain, come our way. Come again for 1 more day. (I think that's how the rhyme goes). Regardless, we're still in an odd dry spell. Sure we just received 1/2" earlier this week, but considering January and February are the rainiest months for us, 1/2" the past 6 weeks won't cut it. This weekend we're due for nice weather (again) with temps in the mid-60's at the beaches and maybe some patchy fog in the mornings. We have a weak dry cold front coming through on Monday, so it may be breezy from the NW in the afternoon, but high pressure sets up behind it for light offshore winds Tuesday/Wednesday. After that the models are divided- some say more nice weather while others say another dry breezy cold front later in the week. Whatever they decide on, no real storms are in our sights.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

We all know that wind makes waves (unless you're the Kelly Slater Wave Co., Wavegarden, Lochtfeld, American Wave Machines, or that kid in the community pool with the boogie board who keeps pushing up and down on the water). But just how strong do the winds get? Around here, 15 mph usually blows out the surf, 40 mph is a pretty strong winter storm for us, 74 mph is the threshold for hurricane winds, and 100 mph does some serious damage to trees and man-made structures. But do the winds get much stronger than that? Glad you asked...

For all you hardcore North County Surf blog fans (and you know who your are out there), I reported back in 2015  that Hurricane Patricia formed off the west coast of Mexico on October 23rd with a peak wind gust of 215 mph. Holy moly. The winds were so strong that it technically could be considered a category 6 storm if the Saffir-Simpson scale went that high (the highest on the scale is a category 5 at 156+ mph). For all you east coast surfers that may be reading this, the fastest winds from a hurricane in the Atlantic was the infamous Hurricane Allen with winds of 190 mph. Allen killed 269 people and caused over $2.5 billion in damage. The name Allen as you would imagine, was retired by the National Hurricane Center. 

So 190 mph and 215 mph is impressive and all, but what is the strongest winds ever recorded on Earth- regardless if it's a hurricane or not? For the US, that title would be on top of little Mount Washington (6,288') in New Hampshire. (For comparison's sake, Hot Springs Mountain in San Diego County is 6,535', San Gorgornio in Southern California is 11,503, Mt. Whitney in the continental United States is 14,505', Mt. McKinley in the northern hemisphere is 20,237', and the grandaddy of them all- Mt. Everest of course- is 29,029'. And while we're on the subject, the distance between the lowest point on earth- the Marianas Trench at 36,069 below sea level and the top of Mt. Everest- is 65,098'. That's 12.5 miles for all you math geeks out there. So back to Mt. Washington. On April 12th, 1934, high pressure was building more and more to the north and east, and a low pressure was becoming stronger to the west. This produced an abnormally tight pressure gradient forming to the north and east of the storm system. Pressure gradient is the change in pressure over some distance (either horizontally or vertically) with respect to a point in space. A tight pressure gradient results in air rushing quickly from high to low pressure. And in this case, above Mt. Washington, researchers recorded winds of 231 mph that day, a record that held for a mere 62 years. 

Who would break it? The Aussies of course (but Slater broke MR's record, so we're even). On April 10, 1996, the Earth's strongest surface wind, not including tornadoes, was measured, but almost 14 years would pass until it became an official world record. Tropical Cyclone Olivia bore down on tiny Barrow Island, just off the coast of western Australia in April 1996. Olivia's hurricane eyewall produced five extreme 3-second wind gusts, the peak of which was a 253 mph gust on April 10. For reference, this brief gust was more than 12 mph faster than the Indy car world record of 241 mph by Gil de Ferran in 2000. These extreme gusts weren't made public during the storm, as the anemometer was owned by a private company, Chevron. Even after the storm, forecasters at Australia's Bureau of Meteorology were made aware of this data but were suspicious of the data quality, given the values measured. A 2009 report had to be submitted to a weather and climate extremes committee of the World Meteorological Organization for the wind gusts to be considered. In early 2010, this new world record surface wind speed became official.

So all these strong winds in remote places sound interesting, but what if we had something extraordinary happen here in California? At a ski resort nonetheless? And recently? For all you snowboarders out there, that distinction would be at Lake Tahoe's Kirkwood ski resort last week. USA Today reported recently that a 209 mph gust of wind - a potential record-setter- has created quite a bit of bluster, leading to the resort briefly shutting down and weather authorities trying to figure out whether the gust actually ever happened. The investigation to verify Sunday's gust is underway. It's just one investigation — albeit one that'll take longer — of many the National Weather Service engages in during its quest for accurate distribution of information in age where inaccurate weather reports can easily gain traction. 

No one is ruling out the possibility of such a gust, which would put it on a par with Category 5 hurricane power. But It's "highly unlikely" a gust in the area was that strong, Craig Shoemaker, a Sacramento-based meteorologist with the the National Weather Service, told USA TODAY in a phone interview. The gust at the top of Kirkwood was recorded by equipment not maintained by the National Weather Service, Shoemaker said. The NWS receives more than 200 million weather observations nationwide each day, Susan Buchanan, director of public affairs for the NWS, said in an email. The NWS maintains more than 900 Automated Surface Observation Stations (ASOSs) across the country, Buchanan said. 

"For every one of those, there are likely dozens, if not hundreds, of additional platforms reporting weather conditions," she said. "Many of those we have access to — to use with caution." Kirkwood officials say they are not just blowing smoke. Vail Resorts, Kirkwood Mountain Resorts' parent company, will defer to the National Weather Service to verify the accuracy of the reading, spokesman Russell Carlton said in an email to USA TODAY. Carlton said the instrument used at the site is able to record wind gusts over 200 mph. Carlton added, "Our weather capturing instruments are vital to the data our resort collects in order to safely operate in our high alpine environment. Their primary function is providing our mountain operations teams with the important weather data needed to make resort operation decisions." 

Dawn Johnson, a senior meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Reno, Nevada, said it'll take months to verify the wind speed of the gust. She said a gust that powerful was absolutely possible, and reports of damage had rolled in as of Monday, but it's too early to be sure. "Looking at the other signs that were there that day, I would it’s possible," she said in a phone interview. "I can’t say for sure. I wouldn’t say no, either." She added damage assessments are underway and the California State Climatologist will be involved. While the investigation into the gust is underway, there are skeptics. Shoemaker is exercising caution looking at the reports from Kirkwood Mountain Resort. "Looking through the data, it seems like there are several errors with that site," he said. "For instance, it’s currently reporting 92% relative humidity, and it's reporting 100 mph sustained winds and 160 mph wind gusts. That just wouldn’t happen."

Buchanan said NWS can't "police social media" for inaccurate reports, but it does what it can to corroborate weather information that's distributed via weather spotters, high-tech tools and information from local partners (like emergency management). "While there are many more good observations/reports than bad, it is something our forecasters need to be aware of, and check for, when there is something questionable being reported," she said. For Shoemaker, the relative humidity was just one issue that caused him to question the potential record-breaking gust. He added the station was reporting sustained winds of more than 100 mph for roughly 12 hours. For comparison, that's in the range of a Category 2 hurricane. The station also reported a 82 mph wind gust on Feb. 5, which, according to Shoemaker, "was not a particularly-windy day."

The state's wind speed record was set in 2017 when a 199 mph gust was reported at the Alpine Meadows Ski Resort, which is less than 100 miles away, Shoemaker said. The strongest gust reported at that resort Sunday was 125 mph, which raises further questions about whether there was 209 mph gust somewhere relatively close, he said.  “You would expect them to be higher," Shoemaker said about Alpine Meadows. "At least closer to the 209. They are some distance apart, but not a crazy amount of distance." Johnson said it took 10 months to verify the 199 mph wind gust. Shoemaker said he was part of the committee that verified the record gust.  Buchanan had recommendations on how to verify weather reports, but she said it comes down to what a consumer wants to do with the information they receive.

For example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Information, based in North Carolina, archives official weather observations. Those records are the only ones admissible in court, Buchanan said. For just observing the weather, Buchanan said, "The public can be reasonably confident in weather observations being reported by their local weather forecast office and their local broadcast meteorologists." She added that while the reliability of weather sensors outside of the NWS-controlled ASOSs can be "suspect at times," there are typically other nearby observations to check against a single piece of information. "Rather than 'vetting' random observations seen online, it might be better to seek out what quality-controlled observations are issued/being reported by the NWS, or another trusted source," Buchanan said.

Shoemaker and Johnson both said the next step would be to see how much damage the ski resort sustained. If the damage matches the strength of the winds reported, then the NWS would keep digging into the reported gust.  "Obviously, if they had this type of wind sustained for as long as it has been, there would be significant damage to the ski resort there," Shoemaker said. "We’re talking about winds that are stronger than the strongest hurricanes. "It’s questionable to us whether that sensor would even still be there if they had 209 mph winds. That it wouldn’t just blow away, like what happens in many really strong hurricanes."

PIC OF THE WEEK:

This is what I'm hoping the new wave pools in Palm Springs will look like. Chest high surf, warm water, and just your bros out. Considering 90% of the time it's cold, foggy, and crowded here in Southern California, I'm more than happy to throw down $100 to surf in trunks with my friends. Plus I'll play 18 when I'm done, listen to a little Don Ho at the pool bar, and hit up Mastro's to close out the day. Can't wait! For more visions of the future, check out artist Phil Robert's work here.

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Cassanova

I Get Stupid, I Shoot An Arrow Like Cupid

Best Surfer Over 50 (Voted By You, The Readers)