YOU are such a good small wave surfer.
SURF:
Positive thinking here people!
Small clean surf this past week has been fun... but not good. Just one of those weather patterns that we need to embrace in the short term. And praying wouldn't hurt either. Still no major storms in the Pacific resulting in small surf just about everywhere in California with more small- but at least rideable- surf in the near future. Look for background NW/SW Friday for waist high+ surf.
We may though get a little bump from the NW on Saturday/Sunday for chest high surf in SD, but that's about it. Nice weather is on tap this weekend so at least the small surf won't get blown to bits. And here's the tide/sun specs for the weekend:
We may though get a little bump from the NW on Saturday/Sunday for chest high surf in SD, but that's about it. Nice weather is on tap this weekend so at least the small surf won't get blown to bits. And here's the tide/sun specs for the weekend:
- Sunrise and sunset are:
- 6:33 AM sunrise (just enough light to paddle out at 6)
- 5:32 PM sunset (just enough light to paddle in at 6)
- Water temps are still in the mid to high 50's
- And tides this weekend are pretty mellow:
- 2' at sunrise
- 0' mid-morning
- 3' mid-afternoon
- 2' at sunset
FORECAST:
Still nothing big on the horizon but we do have a couple little swells coming.
First up is a fun NW on Tuesday for chest high surf. There was also a small early season storm off New Zealand last week which will give us waist high waves on Tuesday too with chest high surf towards the OC. The combination of both swells will give us chest high surf and shoulder high sets at the spots that pick up both swells. That will last into Wednesday. The 2nd half of next week looks small but we may have a slight waist-chest NW around the 22nd.
Models though show a storm off the Aleutians mid-week as well as a better storm of New Zealand, which could give us shoulder high+ surf around the 25th of February from the NW/SW. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then.
BEST BET:
Tuesday with fun combo swells, or if the forecast charts hold up, Tuesday the 25th with better combo swells.
WEATHER:
Rain, rain, come our way. Come again for 1 more day. (I think that's how the rhyme goes). Regardless, we're still in an odd dry spell. Sure we just received 1/2" earlier this week, but considering January and February are the rainiest months for us, 1/2" the past 6 weeks won't cut it. This weekend we're due for nice weather (again) with temps in the mid-60's at the beaches and maybe some patchy fog in the mornings. We have a weak dry cold front coming through on Monday, so it may be breezy from the NW in the afternoon, but high pressure sets up behind it for light offshore winds Tuesday/Wednesday. After that the models are divided- some say more nice weather while others say another dry breezy cold front later in the week. Whatever they decide on, no real storms are in our sights.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
We all know that wind makes waves (unless you're the Kelly Slater Wave Co., Wavegarden, Lochtfeld, American Wave Machines, or that kid in the community pool with the boogie board who keeps pushing up and down on the water). But just how strong do the winds get? Around here, 15 mph usually blows out the surf, 40 mph is a pretty strong winter storm for us, 74 mph is the threshold for hurricane winds, and 100 mph does some serious damage to trees and man-made structures. But do the winds get much stronger than that? Glad you asked...
For all you hardcore North County Surf blog fans (and you know who your are out there), I reported back in 2015 that Hurricane Patricia formed off the west coast of Mexico on October 23rd with a peak wind gust of 215 mph. Holy moly. The winds were so strong that it technically could be considered a category 6 storm if the Saffir-Simpson scale went that high (the highest on the scale is a category 5 at 156+ mph). For all you east coast surfers that may be reading this, the fastest winds from a hurricane in the Atlantic was the infamous Hurricane Allen with winds of 190 mph. Allen killed 269 people and caused over $2.5 billion in damage. The name Allen as you would imagine, was retired by the National Hurricane Center.
So 190 mph and 215 mph is impressive and all, but what is the strongest winds ever recorded on Earth- regardless if it's a hurricane or not? For the US, that title would be on top of little Mount Washington (6,288') in New Hampshire. (For comparison's sake, Hot Springs Mountain in San Diego County is 6,535', San Gorgornio in Southern California is 11,503, Mt. Whitney in the continental United States is 14,505', Mt. McKinley in the northern hemisphere is 20,237', and the grandaddy of them all- Mt. Everest of course- is 29,029'. And while we're on the subject, the distance between the lowest point on earth- the Marianas Trench at 36,069 below sea level and the top of Mt. Everest- is 65,098'. That's 12.5 miles for all you math geeks out there. So back to Mt. Washington. On April 12th, 1934, high pressure was building more and more to the north and east, and a low pressure was becoming stronger to the west. This produced an abnormally tight pressure gradient forming to the north and east of the storm system. Pressure gradient is the change in pressure over some distance (either horizontally or vertically) with respect to a point in space. A tight pressure gradient results in air rushing quickly from high to low pressure. And in this case, above Mt. Washington, researchers recorded winds of 231 mph that day, a record that held for a mere 62 years.
Who would break it? The Aussies of course (but Slater broke MR's record, so we're even). On April 10, 1996, the Earth's strongest surface wind, not including tornadoes, was measured, but almost 14 years would pass until it became an official world record. Tropical Cyclone Olivia bore down on tiny Barrow Island, just off the coast of western Australia in April 1996. Olivia's hurricane eyewall produced five extreme 3-second wind gusts, the peak of which was a 253 mph gust on April 10. For reference, this brief gust was more than 12 mph faster than the Indy car world record of 241 mph by Gil de Ferran in 2000. These extreme gusts weren't made public during the storm, as the anemometer was owned by a private company, Chevron. Even after the storm, forecasters at Australia's Bureau of Meteorology were made aware of this data but were suspicious of the data quality, given the values measured. A 2009 report had to be submitted to a weather and climate extremes committee of the World Meteorological Organization for the wind gusts to be considered. In early 2010, this new world record surface wind speed became official.
So all these strong winds in remote places sound interesting, but what if we had something extraordinary happen here in California? At a ski resort nonetheless? And recently? For all you snowboarders out there, that distinction would be at Lake Tahoe's Kirkwood ski resort last week. USA Today reported recently that a 209 mph gust of wind - a potential record-setter- has created quite a bit of bluster, leading to the resort briefly shutting down and weather authorities trying to figure out whether the gust actually ever happened. The investigation to verify Sunday's gust is underway. It's just one investigation — albeit one that'll take longer — of many the National Weather Service engages in during its quest for accurate distribution of information in age where inaccurate weather reports can easily gain traction.
No one is ruling out the possibility of such a gust, which would put it on a par with Category 5 hurricane power. But It's "highly unlikely" a gust in the area was that strong, Craig Shoemaker, a Sacramento-based meteorologist with the the National Weather Service, told USA TODAY in a phone interview. The gust at the top of Kirkwood was recorded by equipment not maintained by the National Weather Service, Shoemaker said. The NWS receives more than 200 million weather observations nationwide each day, Susan Buchanan, director of public affairs for the NWS, said in an email. The NWS maintains more than 900 Automated Surface Observation Stations (ASOSs) across the country, Buchanan said.
"For every one of those, there are likely dozens, if not hundreds, of additional platforms reporting weather conditions," she said. "Many of those we have access to — to use with caution." Kirkwood officials say they are not just blowing smoke. Vail Resorts, Kirkwood Mountain Resorts' parent company, will defer to the National Weather Service to verify the accuracy of the reading, spokesman Russell Carlton said in an email to USA TODAY. Carlton said the instrument used at the site is able to record wind gusts over 200 mph. Carlton added, "Our weather capturing instruments are vital to the data our resort collects in order to safely operate in our high alpine environment. Their primary function is providing our mountain operations teams with the important weather data needed to make resort operation decisions."
Dawn Johnson, a senior meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Reno, Nevada, said it'll take months to verify the wind speed of the gust. She said a gust that powerful was absolutely possible, and reports of damage had rolled in as of Monday, but it's too early to be sure. "Looking at the other signs that were there that day, I would it’s possible," she said in a phone interview. "I can’t say for sure. I wouldn’t say no, either." She added damage assessments are underway and the California State Climatologist will be involved. While the investigation into the gust is underway, there are skeptics. Shoemaker is exercising caution looking at the reports from Kirkwood Mountain Resort. "Looking through the data, it seems like there are several errors with that site," he said. "For instance, it’s currently reporting 92% relative humidity, and it's reporting 100 mph sustained winds and 160 mph wind gusts. That just wouldn’t happen."
Buchanan said NWS can't "police social media" for inaccurate reports, but it does what it can to corroborate weather information that's distributed via weather spotters, high-tech tools and information from local partners (like emergency management). "While there are many more good observations/reports than bad, it is something our forecasters need to be aware of, and check for, when there is something questionable being reported," she said. For Shoemaker, the relative humidity was just one issue that caused him to question the potential record-breaking gust. He added the station was reporting sustained winds of more than 100 mph for roughly 12 hours. For comparison, that's in the range of a Category 2 hurricane. The station also reported a 82 mph wind gust on Feb. 5, which, according to Shoemaker, "was not a particularly-windy day."
The state's wind speed record was set in 2017 when a 199 mph gust was reported at the Alpine Meadows Ski Resort, which is less than 100 miles away, Shoemaker said. The strongest gust reported at that resort Sunday was 125 mph, which raises further questions about whether there was 209 mph gust somewhere relatively close, he said. “You would expect them to be higher," Shoemaker said about Alpine Meadows. "At least closer to the 209. They are some distance apart, but not a crazy amount of distance." Johnson said it took 10 months to verify the 199 mph wind gust. Shoemaker said he was part of the committee that verified the record gust. Buchanan had recommendations on how to verify weather reports, but she said it comes down to what a consumer wants to do with the information they receive.
For example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Information, based in North Carolina, archives official weather observations. Those records are the only ones admissible in court, Buchanan said. For just observing the weather, Buchanan said, "The public can be reasonably confident in weather observations being reported by their local weather forecast office and their local broadcast meteorologists." She added that while the reliability of weather sensors outside of the NWS-controlled ASOSs can be "suspect at times," there are typically other nearby observations to check against a single piece of information. "Rather than 'vetting' random observations seen online, it might be better to seek out what quality-controlled observations are issued/being reported by the NWS, or another trusted source," Buchanan said.
Shoemaker and Johnson both said the next step would be to see how much damage the ski resort sustained. If the damage matches the strength of the winds reported, then the NWS would keep digging into the reported gust. "Obviously, if they had this type of wind sustained for as long as it has been, there would be significant damage to the ski resort there," Shoemaker said. "We’re talking about winds that are stronger than the strongest hurricanes. "It’s questionable to us whether that sensor would even still be there if they had 209 mph winds. That it wouldn’t just blow away, like what happens in many really strong hurricanes."
For example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Information, based in North Carolina, archives official weather observations. Those records are the only ones admissible in court, Buchanan said. For just observing the weather, Buchanan said, "The public can be reasonably confident in weather observations being reported by their local weather forecast office and their local broadcast meteorologists." She added that while the reliability of weather sensors outside of the NWS-controlled ASOSs can be "suspect at times," there are typically other nearby observations to check against a single piece of information. "Rather than 'vetting' random observations seen online, it might be better to seek out what quality-controlled observations are issued/being reported by the NWS, or another trusted source," Buchanan said.
Shoemaker and Johnson both said the next step would be to see how much damage the ski resort sustained. If the damage matches the strength of the winds reported, then the NWS would keep digging into the reported gust. "Obviously, if they had this type of wind sustained for as long as it has been, there would be significant damage to the ski resort there," Shoemaker said. "We’re talking about winds that are stronger than the strongest hurricanes. "It’s questionable to us whether that sensor would even still be there if they had 209 mph winds. That it wouldn’t just blow away, like what happens in many really strong hurricanes."
PIC OF THE WEEK:
This is what I'm hoping the new wave pools in Palm Springs will look like. Chest high surf, warm water, and just your bros out. Considering 90% of the time it's cold, foggy, and crowded here in Southern California, I'm more than happy to throw down $100 to surf in trunks with my friends. Plus I'll play 18 when I'm done, listen to a little Don Ho at the pool bar, and hit up Mastro's to close out the day. Can't wait! For more visions of the future, check out artist Phil Robert's work here.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Cassanova
I Get Stupid, I Shoot An Arrow Like Cupid
Best Surfer Over 50 (Voted By You, The Readers)
