THE Surf Report- Early Edition

So close I can taste it (saltwater that is). 

SURF:

Nice conditions this past week but not much surf. 

We had a mix of SW and W swells for waist high surf and chest high sets for the best spots (you know who you are). For Friday we're back to waist high waves as a weak cold front swings through Friday night into Saturday. 

Good news is that the surf will pick up Saturday afternoon. Bad news is that's it's due to the windy cold front. Look for chest high+ surf late on Saturday and messy conditions. The front should move through by Sunday morning so we could be looking at chest high surf and clean conditions. In summary: small/clean Friday, bigger/junkier late Saturday, fun early Sunday. And tides/sun this weekend are:

• Sunrise and sunset are:
• 6:25 AM sunrise 
• 5:40 PM sunset 

• Water temps are still in the mid to high 50's  

• And we've got a bit of a tide swing this weekend:
• 4' at sunrise
• 5.5' mid-morning
• -1' around 3pm
• 1' at sunset

FORECAST:

It looks like after a month or so of uneventful surf, we may be on to something finally. Not big enough to turn on the Emergency Boardriding System, but still fun nonetheless. 

After the NW from Sunday winds down, we get another shot of NW windswell arriving on Monday as well as a new SW filling in. This was from a moderate sized storm last week of Antarctica and we should see shoulder high+ surf from the combo swells. The NW starts to back off on Tuesday but the SW hits it's peak with more shoulder high sets at best S swell spots in northern SD and the OC. Wednesday holds in the chest high range and Thursday is back to waist high+ from the SW. 

On Friday we get WNW groundswell for chest high surf in northern SD county and shoulder high+ NW in southern SD BUT... we may have another storm move into the region next weekend. 

After that, we get a little chest high boost from the SSW around the 1st of March 

AND... more waist-chest high SW around the 3rd. Nothing huge but plenty fun and it looks like the southern hemisphere is awakening from it's hibernation. That means warm water and hurricanes must be right around the corner! Jinx! Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then. 

BEST BET: 

• Sunday if things clean up. 
• Or late Monday into Tuesday with good combo swell 

WEATHER:

Looks like rain finally? Or should I say the mellower low key brother of rain called 'showers' (and of course the distant even quieter cousin of showers is named 'fog'). Back to the showers though- we've got cool overcast conditions on tap for Friday which will lead to 1/4" of showers in the OC and up to 1/2" in SD on Saturday. If you're itching to snowboard (not sure why it would make you itch unless you haven't washed your snowboard pants in a few seasons), the San Bernardino mountains should get 1-2" of the white fluffy stuff. Not much but better than it has been. Sunday the storm exits the region and we're left with cool clear conditions. Most of next week looks to be sunny with light offshore winds in the AM then maybe a better storm with real rain (like you're supposed to get in the middle of winter) towards next weekend. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As the earth gets warmer every year, the storms seem to be getting stronger. Now that the 2010's are behind us, who took the cake as the worst storm in the U.S. the past decade? As you probably guessed- Hurricane Harvey. Can't believe that it was only 2 1/2 short years ago that parts of Houston received 5' of rain in just a few short days (that's feet- not inches mind you). Here's the official report from Newsweek:

Hurricane Harvey was the worst extreme weather event to affect the United States in the previous decade, according to a report published in the meteorological magazine Weatherwise. Using data from the National Hurricane Center and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the report ranks extreme weather events according to resulting deaths and injuries, associated economic costs, size, and meteorological rarity. "Every year that goes by seems to bring a new round of record-breaking weather events, many with devastating consequences," Douglas Le Comte, Weatherwise contributing editor and author of the report, wrote. "Powerful hurricanes that bring large economic and human losses, massive wildfires, floods and droughts, and record-smashing heat waves."

"We often talk here at Weatherwise about the need to track these events to gauge how our climate is shifting in a warming world," he wrote. "As we enter the next decade of the 21st century, we wanted to take a look back at some of the biggest weather stories in the United States and their impacts." Hurricane Harvey was a Category 4 storm which devastated Texas and Louisiana in August and September, 2017. It was the wettest storm on record, producing an incredible 30-60 inches rain which caused catastrophic flooding—particularly in the Houston-Beaumont area. In fact, at one point more than a third of Houston was underwater. Meanwhile, the 60.58 inches of rainfall recorded near Beaumont was the highest total for a tropical cyclone ever measured in the United States. So extreme was the rainfall produced by Harvey that a study conducted for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers by MetStat estimated that 72-hour totals for the storm would expected to be seen just once every 86,000 years. Other factors that contributed to Harvey's top ranking on the list were the fact that the storm directly caused at least 68 deaths. It also had a huge economic cost totaling around $125 billion, making it the second-costliest on record after Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

"It is tough to overestimate the impact Harvey had on Texas and the region," Le Comte told Newsweek. "It hits on all cylinders when it comes to rarity, given the way the storm made landfall south of Houston, came back out to the Gulf, and became almost stationary as it swirled around, hurling enormous amounts of moisture inland." Harvey is followed on the list by hurricanes Sandy and Maria which made landfall in 2012 and 2017 respectively. Sandy was one of the most intense and damaging storms to ever strike the U.S. East Coast, flooding the Jersey Shore and low-lying areas of New York City and Long Island, causing around $70 billion worth of damage. "Sandy was a close second," Le Comte said. "'Superstorm Sandy' was officially 'Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy' as it had transitioned to a mid-latitude extratropical storm before making landfall on the New Jersey coast. The destruction caused $70 billion in damage, making it the third costliest on record." "I could go on and on about how unique this storm was, but will just mention that Sandy's impact is still being felt now, as there are signs posted at New York City area subway stops advising riders that repairs to the previously flooded subway platforms are ongoing in 2020!" Hurricane Maria, meanwhile—a Category 4 storm—devastated Puerto Rico after causing damage in the U.S. Virgin Islands. In what was the worst natural disaster to strike the island in modern history, the storm is thought to have claimed around 3,000 lives, while severely damaging infrastructure across the territory.

The top five on the ranking is completed by Hurricane Irma which struck the U.S. Virgin Islands and Florida in September 2017; and the intense drought that affected the Corn Belt between June and August 2012. In sixth place comes the tornado outbreak of April-May, 2011, during which hundreds of twisters wreaked havoc across parts of the country, claiming nearly 500 lives. This outbreak included the largest recorded number of tornadoes produced by a single weather system. In seventh place is the drought experienced by the Southern Plains between October 2010 and September 2011, which was blamed for nearly 100 deaths and $14 billion in economic losses. And in eighth spot are the devastating wildfires that affected California between 2017 and 2019. The final events on the list are Hurricane Michael which made landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast in October 2018, and the severe California drought that lasted for four years between 2012 and 2015.

In total, the 10 extreme events on the list resulted in the deaths of more than 4,000 people while costing over $400 billion in damages.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

Looking forward to this in the near future (getting waves that is, not this empty New Zealand beach break. Actually, if I had the money, then yes, I would be looking forward to this empty New Zealand beach break). 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Dreamy

Already Have My Bracket Filled Out

World's Foremost Expert On Wave Pool Surf Forecasting