Thursday, September 10, 2020

THE Surf Report- Early Edition


How you holding up?

SURF:


That was one wild week. We had SW swell, NW swell, cold water, warm water, crowds, smoky skies, S winds, N winds, and the kitchen sink thrown in for good measure. Things have quieted down a bit today but we still have a touch of SW in the water. 


We have a new small SW filling in tomorrow (the 3rd in a row that started last week) for waist high+ surf with chest high waves towards the OC. This weekend is more of the same- just waist high+ SW/NW and semi clean conditions. And here's some numbers for you to digest:
  • Sunrise and sunset:
    • 6:31 AM sunrise   
    • 6:57 PM sunset  
  • And our water temps have rebounded to the low 70's again! Hallelujah. No major NW winds are forecasted in the near future so those temps should hold at least from the high 60's to the low 70's through the weekend. 
  • And the tides this weekend are mostly medium to high:
    • 4' at breakfast
    • 3' at lunch
    • 5' at dinner
FORECAST:
After a slow weekend, the surf starts to pick up slightly next week. Monday/Tuesday look small then we get building NW windswell late in the day on Wednesday for chest high sets. 


That's met by a small SW on Thursday for more consistent chest high combo swell. 


On its heels is a long period early season NW swell for chest high sets towards SD around next Friday.


And after THAT... models show a good storm forming off New Zealand this weekend which may give us head high SW the around the 21st. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then.

BEST BET: 
Might as well wait until the 2nd half of next week when more NW windswell, NW groundswell, and SW groundswell should arrive. SHOULD being the key word here- because anything goes with our climate nowadays. 

WEATHER:


You like tropical clouds? Check. Smoky skies? Check. Desert-like heat? Check. Low clouds and cool temps? Check. Strong S winds or N winds? Check. Check. Check. Check. Check! We had a little bit of everything last week. In fact, Southern California has recorded 3 unfortunate records in regards to temperatures in the past month (more on that below in the News of the Week). Whether you believe in Global Warming or not, there's no doubt something is causing us to warm up and it's not looking good. Another oddity is the wildfires raging out of control in the West have given us additional cloud cover- which has dropped our temperatures by a few degrees. This weekend, high pressure will still be in control and we'll just have the usual low clouds/fog in the nights/mornings (as well as hazy skies from the smoke) and temps in the mid-70's again at the beaches. Models show a low pressure system moving by to the N the 2nd half of next week and we'll have slightly cooler temps and more low clouds/fog. Hopefully the low pressure will clear the air of our smoke. And no big heat wave in the near future fortunately.

NEWS OF THE WEEK: 

As mentioned above, we've hit some milestones recently here in California (and the Earth for that matter)- that we should not be proud of. As you're well aware, we're warming up. So much so that August 2020 will be remembered for its extreme heat and violent weather: The U.S. endured heat waves, hurricanes, a devastating derecho and raging wildfires out West. Meteorological summer — June through August’s end — was a standout: It ranked 4th hottest and in the driest one-third of all summers in the historical record. Here are more highlights (or lowlights I guess) from NOAA’s latest monthly U.S. climate report: 

The average temperature for August across the contiguous U.S. was 74.7 degrees F (2.6 degrees above the 20th-century average) and ranked third-hottest August on record. Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Utah each had their warmest August on record. In particular, Phoenix, Arizona, had its hottest month ever recorded, with an average temperature of 99.1 degrees F. For meteorological summer (June through August), the average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 73.6 degrees F — 2.2 degrees above the average. Summer 2020 ended with the ranking of 4th-hottest summer on record. 


If that's not bad enough, we have 3 weather records that were broken the past few weeks that happened here in California. First record as you know, Death Valley reported a high temperature of 130 degrees F. If that reading is verified by climate scientists, a process that could take months, it would be the highest temperature ever reliably recorded on earth. In the popular imagination, Death Valley is the hottest place on earth and is no stranger to heat. Sitting 282 feet below sea level in the Mojave Desert in southeastern California near the Nevada border, it is the lowest, driest and hottest location in the United States. It is sparsely populated, with just 576 residents, according to the most recent census. Brandi Stewart, the spokeswoman for Death Valley National Park, said that the valley is so hot because of the configuration of its lower-than-sea-level basin and surrounding mountains. The superheated air gets trapped in a pocket and just circulates. “It’s like stepping into a convection oven every day in July and August,” she said.

So to recap, August across the US was the 3rd hottest on record and earth may have seen it's hottest temperature ever, in our own backyard. But what about west of the mountains here in Southern California? Well, that's record #2. CNN reported this week that Los Angeles County recorded its highest-ever temperature last Sunday as the weekend heat fanned wildfires across California and put additional strain on the state's power network. The record temperature was at Woodland Hills, according to Dave Bruno, senior meteorologist for the National Weather Service. "We reached 121 degrees Fahrenheit; that is the highest-ever temperature at a station, beating 119 degrees on July 22, 2006," The temperature is also the highest recorded in the Los Angeles County warning area, which includes Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties, a tweet from the National Weather Service Los Angeles said Sunday. Basically, anything W of the mountains here in Southern California (including Orange and San Diego Counties). "Woodland Hills is the last place to get the effects of sea breeze. It's tucked in the west corner of the San Fernando Valley," Bruno explained. "This record heat was in a perfect or imperfect situation. High temperatures from surface to atmosphere, weak offshore flow and just enough to keep away the sea breeze." 


And if that's not unsettling enough, the high temperatures come as firefighters battle wildfires around the state- record #3 unfortunately- the worst year on record in terms of the amount of land scorched. CBS News reports that California has yet to reach the peak of this year's fire season — but deadly wildfires across the state have already burned more acres than any year on record. According to Cal Fire, 2.2 million acres have burned so far, and the season is far from over. Two of the three largest fires in California's history are currently burning in the San Francisco Bay Area. The SCU Lightning Complex has burned more than 396,000 acres and is 95% contained as of Tuesday, and the LNU Lightning Complex has burned more than 375,000 acres and is 91% contained as of Tuesday. The Creek Fire, which erupted Friday, has already become the third-largest that is currently active, burning more than 152,000 acres. It is 0% contained as of Wednesday morning. The fires have killed at least eight people and destroyed upwards of 3,300 structures, Cal Fire said. Most of the state remains under Red Flag Warning as strong winds and low humidity continue, exacerbating ongoing flames. The previous record for acres burned was set just two years ago. It included the deadliest wildfire in the state's history- the Camp Fire, which swept through the community of Paradise and killed 85 people. Cal Fire said that the Golden State has seen over 2,650 more fires and a nearly 2,000% increase in the acres burned year-to-date compared with 2019. By this time last year, 4,927 fires burned through 117,586 acres. Lynne Tolmachoff, a spokeswoman for Cal Fire, said it's "unnerving" to have reached a record for acreage burned when September and October usually are the worst months for fires because vegetation has dried out and high winds are more common. Due to the drought across the West Coast, "peak" fire season is predicted to last through the middle of September, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. The end of the month will see a break in activity thanks to cooler temperatures, but winds could stir up more problems again in October.


So to recap:
  • The US had its 3rd hottest August on record
  • The US had its 4th hottest summer on record
  • Planet Earth unofficially had its hottest temperature ever in Death Valley at 130 degrees Fahrenheit
  • Southern California had its hottest temperatures ever west of the deserts at 121 degrees Fahrenheit
  • And California has seen the 2 of its top 3 biggest fires on record and already hit a record for most scorched acres
I tell you, between the high cost of living, the heat, the fires, and dealing with the Kardashians, California is not an easy place to live. 
 
PIC OF THE WEEK:


My great great great grandpa took this picture of Seaside Reef when he discovered it back in 1878. He was the first person to surf it and even has video to prove it. As soon as I find my Betamax, I'll show it to you. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn
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