Karina: \ ˈkuh-rē-nuh \ adjective. Definition: More impressive than it looked.
SURF:
Didn't see that coming. Tropical Storm Karina (noticed I said, Tropical Storm, not Hurricane), sent fun waves our way the past couple days and I didn't think much of her earlier in the week. Charts showed her with peak winds of 50 mph (Note- a real hurricane like Maria had 160 mph winds) and Karina was moving away from us. The secret ingredient though? Karina was larger in size than most tropical storms and lasted a couple days in our swell window. The result? Shoulder high sets (and bigger in the OC) and plenty of waves to go around. Karina unfortunately has faded but we still have fun waves on tap this weekend.
First up is a small SW filling in tonight to keep us in waist high+ waves tomorrow with chest high sets towards the OC. We then get a small early season NW on Saturday for more waist high surf with chest high sets towards SD. And then... we start to see a new SW on Sunday for chest high sets. Still no big surf but fun this weekend. And check this out:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 6:37 AM sunrise
- 6:46 PM sunset
- For those of you keeping score, that's 12 hours and 9 minutes of sun and 11 hours and 51 minutes of night. Which means...The first day of fall is Sunday! So next week we'll have more daylight than night: 11 hours and 59 minutes of light and 12 hours and 1 minute of dark skies. When do we start gaining more sun and less night? December 20th.
- And our water temps are holding at 70. Going to make those cool fall morning dawn patrols more tolerable.
- And the tides this weekend are easy to remember:
- 1' at breakfast
- 6' at lunch
- 1' at dinner
FORECAST:
Summer couldn't end quick enough. From red tide, beach closures, flat surf, freezing water, smokey skies, crazy crowds- fall is a welcome change of pace. Karma must be on our side finally because we have good swells lined up in the near future. (If everything comes together, I'll turn on the Emergency Boardriding System at next week's THE Surf Report). The SW from late Sunday rolls into Monday with more waist to chest high surf. One fly in the ointment is that a cold front to the N of us early next week may increase our SW winds down here. Nothing major but just enough to blow out the surf mid-day.
Then next Friday, we should see our first real NW of the season for shoulder high surf in North County SD and head high surf in SD.
And then it looks like summer doesn't want to quit in the southern hemisphere as there's a solid storm forecasted to form in a couple days which would give us head high+ SW around the end of the month. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then.
BEST BET:
This weekend with small but fun SW/NW or next Friday with good NW or... the end of the month with good SW!
WEATHER:
Great weather today as the smoke finally thinned out and air temps hit 80 at the beach. Throw in some surf today and warm water and it seems like all the problems this summer were washed away. Look for another nice day tomorrow before the low clouds/fog return in the nights/mornings this weekend from a cold front passing by to the N. Temps will also drop slightly to the low to mid-70's. High pressure should build slightly the 2nd half of next week for warmer weather and less clouds.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
As you've probably heard by now, we are in a slight La Nina pattern for the upcoming fall/winter. The Cliffs Notes version is a potentially warmer than normal atmosphere winter and less rainfall than normal. Less rainfall is not good for our wildfire situation down here in Southern California of course. Here's the LA Times to shed light on the situation:
A La Niña climate pattern — which often means a busier Atlantic hurricane season, a drier Southwest and perhaps a more fire-prone California — has appeared in the Pacific Ocean. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced the La Niña’s formation on Thursday after meteorologists had watched it brew for months. It’s the cooler flip side of the better known El Niño, which tends to bring increased rainfall to the Golden State.
A natural cooling of certain parts of the equatorial Pacific, La Niña sets in motion a series of changes to the world’s weather that can last months, even years. So far, this one is fairly weak. It’s projected to last through at least February but may not hang around for two or three years, as others have done in the past, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
The changes that happen during La Niñas and El Niños — which along with neutral conditions are called the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO — aren’t sure things, meteorologists say. Different sizes and types trigger varying effects, and some years the usual impacts just don’t show up. It’s more an increased tendency than an environmental edict. Still, when it comes to seasonal forecasts in places such as California, if meteorologists can get only one piece of information, they’d want it to be the ENSO status, said Stanford University climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh.
Here’s a closer look at what this La Niña may have in store.
How does La Niña affect U.S. weather in general?
The jet stream that steers our daily weather shifts a bit in the winter. That generally means a drier winter in the South and Southwest from coast to coast. It usually means things are a bit warmer in the South, too. However, in the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio Valley things get wetter in the winter, and the Northern tier becomes colder.
What about the drought in the West?
Drought conditions are already pretty bad in west Texas, Arizona, Utah and Colorado, Halpert said. This could make things worse. And California has “a tendency to have dry conditions in La Niña years,” Diffenbaugh said.
What does this mean for wildfires?
“La Niña is not a good sign for the wildfire outlook,” Diffenbaugh said. But he added that it’s mostly a potential bad sign for next year’s wildfire season because it makes California’s winter season drier, setting the stage for dry conditions when fires start in 2021.
What about winter snow possibilities?
La Niña has a tendency to shift snowstorms more northerly in winter, Halpert said. Places such as the mid-Atlantic often do not get blockbuster snowstorms in La Niña winters. Overall, winter should be cooler than last year, but “last winter was so warm it would be hard not to be cooler,” Halpert said.
Which is worse, La Niña or El Niño?
That really depends on where you are. Some areas do better in La Niña conditions, some are better with an El Niño, and others do best in a neutral ENSO, said Bruce McCarl, an agricultural economist at Texas A&M University who studies ENSO effects. Places such as Texas and the Southwest do much worse in La Niñas, McCarl said, pointing to a 2011 La Niña when 40% of the cotton crop in the high plains was too small to be harvested. A 1999 study by McCarl found that, in general, La Niñas cause $2.2 billion to $6.5 billion in agricultural damage — far more than El Niños. A neutral ENSO is best for agriculture, the study found.
When were the last La Niña and El Niño?
The last La Niña went from the fall of 2017 to early spring in 2018. Before that, there was a brief La Niña at the end of 2016, coming on the heels of a super-sized El Niño. This year started with a brief, weak El Niño.
Why is it called a La Niña anyway?
La Niña is Spanish for “little girl,” and El Niño means “little boy,” a reference to the Christ child. That’s because the first El Niño was characterized and identified around Christmas by fishermen in South America.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Why is this placed called Skeleton Bay? Thanks for asking. The area's name derives from the whale and seal bones that once littered the shore from the whaling industry, although in modern times the coast harbors the skeletal remains of the shipwrecks caught by offshore rocks and fog. Or- you're a deadman trying to paddle back out against the current at this spot.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Husky (As In Burly, Not The Dog)
Lakers. Take That To Laughlin
Starring In A Reality TV Show Called 'Surfivor'
