THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Hope you didn't eat too much or you'll miss the dawn patrol tomorrow!

SURF:

Fun NW earlier in the week was replaced but really fun NW this afternoon for shoulder high surf most everywhere. That swell is peaking tonight and we'll have some leftover chest high surf in the AM along with Santa Ana winds. That fades into the weekend unfortunately and we're back to waist high sets by Sunday. The weather will be nice though so get on it early Friday morning. And here's the tides, sun, and water info:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:32 AM sunrise 
• 4:43 PM sunset

• Water temps are holding at 60. 

• And we've got big tide swings this weekend:
• 6.5' at sunrise
• -0.5 mid afternoon
• 2' at sunset

FORECAST:

Quiet to start the work week but we get more chest high steep NW on Tuesday afternoon (and bigger towards SD). 

After that we finally get a storm that's aimed more from the W and the result is better/bigger surf starting Thursday the 4th and holding into at least Saturday the 6th. Look for head high surf and good conditions again. Models also show more good WNW towards the middle of the month and maybe the start of our rainy season? If anything changes between now and then, make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf.

BEST BET: 

Tomorrow morning before the swell dies or pretty much the 2nd half of next week. 

WEATHER:

Santa Ana wind event is on tap tomorrow with temps near 70 and wind gusts near 20. The OC will have stronger winds so watch your back up there. Saturday the winds start to back off but the warm sunny weather remains. Most of next week will be sunny, mild, and no rain in sight. As mentioned above, models hint at high pressure breaking down the 2nd half of December and maybe our first shot of persistent rain. Let's hope. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK: 

Came across some historical data from the buoys up and down the West Coast (which only has around 25 years of reliable data) and saw some eye popping numbers. Remember any of these swells?

• Oceanside offshore buoy: 17.8' on 2/1/16
• San Nicholas Island buoy: 30' on 1/21/17
• Torrey Pines offshore buoy: 19.4' on 2/1/16
• Scripps Pier buoy: 17' on 2/1/16
• Mission Bay West buoy: 19.8' on 2/1/16
• Point Conception buoy: 32.7' on 2/24/08
• San Pedro offshore buoy: 16.8' on 2/1/16
• And the granddaddy of them all... Ocean Station Papa buoy (Oregon): 49.8' on 12/19/12! 

As you can see above, 2/1/16 was a pretty solid day here in Southern California with most readings between 15-20'. What did THE Surf Report (http://northcountysurf.blogspot.com/2016/01/) say back then? "Models are showing an unusually large NW windswell filling in. Large meaning 15'. Not sure about that, but I think it's going to be big and out of control regardless." Basically we had a storm right on top of us thanks to El Nino and big messy stormsurf. So unfortunately, it wasn't rideable. Opposite of this winter's La Nina (small and clean). What's your preference? Big and stormy or clean and small? Personally, I like big and messy with no one out! 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

This is how my stomach feels after Thanksgiving dinner. 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Thankful

Wish Every Weekend Was A Four Day Weekend

Wear A 5/4/3 To Keep My Giblets Warm

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Get on it! 

SURF:

Had some fun surf most of the week. Nothing big yet this season but plenty of fun waves around town. Today we had peaking NW & SW groundswells for shoulder high sets. That luckily holds into tomorrow morning with a touch less SW. Saturday takes a dip to the chest high range and Sunday is waist to chest high. Looks like a fun weekend of surf as long as you get on it ASAP! Weather should be good too. And here's the tides, sun, and water info:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:24 AM sunrise 
• 4:45 PM sunset

• Water temps are holding in the low 60's

• And the tides this weekend are a little mellower than last weekend:
• 3' at sunrise
• 4.5' at lunch  
• 2' at sunset

FORECAST:

Still nothing big on the horizon but we do have more waves coming. 

We get a reinforcement on Monday for chest high+ waves from the NW and head high surf in SD. That lasts into Tuesday. 

Mid-week looks small, then forecast charts shore more chest high+ surf arriving the Friday after Thanksgiving into the weekend. I can finally put that groveller away. 

After that, models show another NW taking shape next week which may give us more waist/shoulder high surf around the 1st of December. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf. 

BEST BET: 

Friday with good combo swell. Or Monday with new but slightly smaller NW. Or... if you're not in a turkey coma after Thanksgiving, next Friday with more fun NW. Or December 1st? Good to see waves again. 

WEATHER:

Still no rain in sight but hopefully that will change soon. For the time being, we've had a weak cold front moving by to the N today, so expect hazy skies and cool fall like weather again for Friday. That's replaced this weekend by weak high pressure with temps in the mid-70's at the beaches and mild sea breezes. Next week? High pressure breaks down slightly for more cool temps and sunny skies towards Tuesday. After that, models diverge and we may have more cool conditions or MAYBE a chance of showers on Thanksgiving- hope that's the case. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK: 

As you've read numerous times in THE Surf Report, La Niña and El Nino (aka El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO) play a significant role in our weather and surf as it relates to Southern California. You probably know by now that we're in the middle of a La Niña weather pattern (below average rain, below average surf, below average water temps- but our friends back east of course had a record setting hurricane season). So how long with this thing last? And will it get any worse? Here's some insight from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:

La Niña strengthened over October, with both the tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere clearly reflecting La Niña conditions. Forecasters estimate at least a 95% chance La Niña will last through the winter, with a 65% chance of it hanging on through the spring. The October sea surface temperature anomaly (departure from the long-term average) in the eastern tropical Pacific was -1.3°C, substantially cooler than the La Niña threshold of -0.5°C. This is the eighth-strongest negative October value on record, which dates back to 1950.

One of the ways we monitor the atmospheric response to ENSO is through satellite images of the amount of thermal radiation leaving the Earth’s surface. Clouds block this outgoing long-wave radiation, so when the satellites see less outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) than average, it means more clouds and rain than average. Conversely, when the satellite picks up more OLR, the skies are clearer than average. During La Niña, we’d expect to see less rain than average over the central tropical Pacific and more rain over Indonesia—the strengthened Walker circulation, La Niña’s atmospheric response; the models show this pattern clearly.

Another component of the strengthened Walker circulation is stronger Pacific trade winds, the near-surface winds that blow from east to west near the equator, and stronger west-to-east winds high up in the atmosphere. Both strengthened wind patterns were observed during October, providing more evidence that the ocean-atmosphere coupling we expect during both phases of ENSO is present. This coupling is a feedback mechanism that strengthens ENSO. In the case of La Niña, cooler-than-average waters in the tropical Pacific mean the difference between the warm western Pacific and the cooler central Pacific is greater than average. This greater difference leads to the stronger Walker circulation, and the stronger trade winds further cool the surface water in the central Pacific and also pile up warm water in the west. Several computer models are suggesting that this La Niña is likely to be a stronger event, with an anomaly during November–January cooler than -1.5°C.The substantial atmospheric coupling supports these predictions, as does the amount of cooler water under the surface. These cooler subsurface waters, which are also evidence of the coupled system, will provide a source of cooler-than-average water for the surface over the next few months. October’s average subsurface temperature was the 7th-coolest October since 1979. The Climate Prediction Center is now providing a probabilistic outlook for the strength of El Niño and La Niña events. While forecast probabilities are provided for every season, it is the November–January season that has the largest chance (54%) of the tropical eastern Pacific being -1.5°C. This would make it a strong event; of the 23 La Niña events since 1950, seven have had maximum cooler than -1.5°C.

As we’ve observed in past La Niña's, it appears to be relatively rare in our observed record (starting in 1950) for La Niña to develop following a neutral or slightly warm winter like we had in 2019–2020. It turns out that the previous La Niña events we’ve observed so far have all been preceded by either El Niño or La Niña. 2020 stands out, following a winter where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures were slightly warm, but not quite El Niño. Since we only have about 70 years of observations, it’s hard to say exactly how unusual this is—we’d need to do more studies with climate models to find out.We pay so much attention to ENSO because it affects global weather and climate; a stronger La Niña event means these effects are more likely. We’ve already seen hints of some of the weather and climate patterns we’d expect during La Niña. The most obvious one of these is the extraordinarily active Atlantic hurricane season. La Niña leads to reduced shear (the change in wind from the surface to the upper levels) in the atmosphere over the Atlantic, allowing hurricanes to grow and strengthen.

Although October is a little early for clear La Niña impacts, global precipitation and temperature patterns during the month did give some hints of a La Niña effect, including more rain in Indonesia, drier conditions in southeastern China and the U.S. Southwest, and cooler weather in Canada and into the U.S. Northern Plains. 

So as it looks now, we should see smaller surf/less rain/colder water temps though probably next summer. At that point, we should be back to neutral status next fall. And if models are correct, hopefully aimed towards El Nino next winter...

PIC OF THE WEEK:

If you're wondering, the answer is 'yes' to all of your questions: Yes, no one is out. Yes, it's 10'. Yes, that left is SUPER long. And no, I'm not telling you where that is. (Ok, that's 3 yes's and a no). 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Tremendous

One Of Clooney's 14 Friends

Little Known Fact: Have Never Wiped Out

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

You win some, you lose some, you win some. 

SURF:

Good to see some surf last weekend. And good to see some rain! Just not at the same time unfortunately. But I'll take any surf at this point. Which brings me to this weekend: It will be a slight repeat of last weekend. We've got a little bump from the surf and a weaker cold front. So expect suspect conditions and fun surf. 

On Friday, we've got a new SW filling in for chest high sets in North County SD along with a weak cold front moving through. Winds will most likely be around 15 mph on Friday afternoon into Saturday.

We also have a steep NW filling in late Saturday into Sunday for chest high waves in SD with cleaner conditions. And here's the tides, sun, and water info:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:18 AM sunrise 
• 4:48 PM sunset
• FYI: This is pretty much the earliest the sun will set until December 20th, but... the mornings will be darker as the sunrise will inch towards 6:47 AM. 

• Thanks to all the NW wind from the storms last weekend, water temps are 60! 

• And the tides have a drastic 7' swing this weekend. Make sure to check out the lagoons and tide pools:
• 6' at sunrise
• -1' mid afternoon  
• back up slightly to 1' at sunset 

FORECAST:

The steep NW sticks around SD for Monday then we see a good NW arrive late next Wednesday into Thursday for shoulder high surf. We also get more late season SW arriving towards Thursday too. We should see some chest high sets from that. Along with the NW, should be good. We also have another weak cold front on the charts Wednesday/Thursday but it shouldn't screw up the surf that much. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then.

BEST BET: 

Saturday morning if the wind isn't that bad for the SW. Or Sunday in SD with small but fun NW and cleaner conditions. Or if the cold front isn't that bad next week, then Wednesday/Thursday with shoulder high surf from NW/SW combo swell. 

WEATHER:

Not a bad storm last weekend to start the fall season. Winds gusted to 47 mph in Solana Beach and the So-Cal mountains hit 74 mph- a category 1 hurricane! Most locations along the coast also received 1/2 to 3/4" of rain and we're just below average in our rain department. Could be worse. As mentioned above, look for a weak cold front Friday evening for cooler weather and breezy conditions. Temps may at best hith the low 60's. Sunday the sun returns and warmer weather prevails with temps near 70 and that lasts until Wednesday before another weak cold front moves through for breezy conditions again and temps in the mid-60's. Next weekend is forecasted to be sunny and warm with a potential Santa Ana event...

NEWS OF THE WEEK: 

Are we just living with the fact that Great White sharks are now just part of our line ups along with shortboarders, longboarders, knee boarders, SUP's, bodyboarders, skimboarders, Beater Boards (TM), bodysurfers, kayakers, surf skis, Wavestormers (TM), inflatables, jet skis, and foilers? The answer is most likely yes: Researchers working in Southern California tagged 38 sharks this year, more than triple last year’s total. Here's Smithsonian Magazine to explain:

Researchers in Southern California are seeing more great white sharks than ever before, reports local broadcast network KCAL-TV. Chris Lowe, a shark expert at California State University Long Beach, tells KCAL-TV that his lab tagged a record 38 great whites—more than three times the number they tagged last year. “This year there were just more sharks around, and the question is why,” says Lowe.

But scientists emphasize an important qualifier: The great whites cruising the Southern California coast are babies and juveniles that tend to be between four and ten feet long. These skittish young sharks stick close to shore to avoid predators and snack on stingrays and fish. They also mostly avoid people, even as they’re becoming more numerous.

“Despite the fact that shark populations are going up and more people are using the water than ever before, we’re not really seeing more people actually being bitten by sharks,” Lowe tells Reuters. “In fact, in some years, the rate has gone down. So what that tells us, as a scientist, is that we’re not on their menu at all. But occasionally accidents happen.”

Previous research from Lowe’s lab identified Southern California spots—including Ventura, Oxnard, Santa Monica Bay, Huntington Beach and Dana Point—as nurseries for the famously toothy predators, reported Cheri Carlson of the Ventura County Star in 2017. Typically the immature great whites just spend the summer off Southern California, when the water is relatively warm, before heading south to Mexico and Baja as winter chills the sea. But this year Lowe says the sharks are sticking around.

“Normally they’d be leaving by now, but instead we are seeing more sharks than ever,” Lowe tells the Guardian's Katherine Gammon. Lowe tells Laylan Connelly of the San Jose Mercury News that his team doesn’t have enough data to draw any hard conclusions yet, but water temperature is part of what dictates whether the sharks stay or leave. “If our water temperature doesn’t cool down, the sharks that normally leave have no reason to leave. So we’re just going to wait and see,” Lowe says.

This year’s monitoring also revealed groups of young sharks spending time in places farther north, where the water was once too cold for them to linger. “To us, that’s a harbinger of climate change,” Lowe tells the Mercury News, “that’s a classic sign of species moving north and tracking conditions that are more suitable.”
But even as climate change shuffles the growing sharks’ favorite haunts, the population’s growing size is a good sign for the sharks and California’s marine ecosystems. More sightings mean that protections for great whites enacted by the state in 1994 have worked. The Marine Mammal Protection Act has also likely helped the sharks by protecting the favorite food of adults: marine mammals.

“It’s taken this long to finally start seeing the results of protection, [but] they’ve finally reached a tipping point,” Michael Domeier, a shark researcher at the Marine Conservation Science Institute, told Surfline's Dashel Pierson in 2017 following numerous sightings in Orange County. “This is not a fluke. It’s our new reality. And we just have to get used to it.” But a two-year drone study conducted by Lowe on the behavior of great whites near Southern California shores found they were mostly indifferent to people nearby. Lowe tells the Guardian that sharks may actually be making the beaches a bit safer by keeping the stingray population down.

So keep your feet up, no diving, no surfing in the dark, and make sure to surf with a buddy; which shouldn't be hard since there's no such thing as an empty line up in Southern California. 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

A little offshore reef with just you and your friends? What else could you want?

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Scintillating

People On The Street Mistake Me For Zack From Saved By The Bell  

Just Purchased Lowers. I Need Everyone Out Of The Water In 15 Minutes. Go on. Scat. 

THE Surf Report- Early Edition

Stuck in the middle with you. 

SURF:

I sure had high hopes for North County San Diego the past few days. With building SW/NW swells, what could go wrong? Well, the SW was fun in the OC and the NW was fun in SD, and around here? The swells finally made their presence today- two days late. But fear not! The swells are still building tonight BUT... we have some weather to deal with. Looks like we have our first real storm of the season headed our way tomorrow evening which will increase the winds and rain. So even if you brave the wind, the water will be dirty since it's the first rain of the season and there's A LOT of junk about to runoff into our ocean. But let's stay positive and talk about the good stuff: 

The SW will continue to build on Friday along with NW wind/groundswell. Look for chest high surf in the AM and head high (possibly windy) surf in the PM. Best bet is to get it before lunch. Saturday the NW peaks with well overhead surf (and a continuation of the SW) but we'll have rain, wind, and dirty water. Sunday is more of the same with overhead surf from the NW/SW, bumpy conditions, and dirty water from a 2nd low pressure system. If you like junky overhead combo swell, then this weekend is going to be epic! And here's the tides, sun, and water info:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:13 AM sunrise. 
• 4:52 PM sunset

• Water is hovering in the mid-60's. 

• And the tides this weekend aren't doing much:
• 3' at sunrise
• 4.5' after lunch
• 2.5' at sunset 

FORECAST:

After a messy weekend of surf, HOPEFULLY it's cleaner (the wind AND water) by Monday. We still should have head high sets from both the NW/SW early Monday then dropping quickly by the afternoon. 

Tuesday into Wednesday continues to drop then we get more SW groundswell and NW windswell late Wednesday. Both swells aren't big but we should get chest high combo surf by Thursday. We do though have another (weaker) cold front expected to arrive mid-week so that may screw up the swell (again) Thursday. After that, we have a lull for maybe a week, then models show a couple more storms taking shape in the N and S Pacific but we'll have to wait and see. Make sure to check out Twitter/North County Surf if anything changes between now and then.

BEST BET: 

As the swells build on Friday, the winds will too so plan accordingly. Best bet is early Friday. And if you like storm surf- and there isn't much rain by Saturday morning- get on it early as the rest of the weekend the water should be filthy. Next week, Wednesday into Thursday could be fun if the next cold front isn't as strong as anticipated. 

WEATHER:

Winter is here! In fall! Our first real storm of the season is headed down the coast today and it should be a good one. Look for semi clean conditions Friday morning then get progressively worse as we head into the afternoon. Winds will be gusty by nightfall and the storm surf will be picking up. Models actually show Point Conception and the Channel Islands hitting 20' Friday night/Saturday morning. Rain will back off by Saturday evening before another weaker system fills in behind it on Sunday. All in all, we should see 1/2" in the OC and up to 1" in SD. Temps this weekend will drop from 80 today to 60 by Sunday. Monday should be a transition day, Tuesday sunny and cool, then maybe another much weaker cold front for late Wednesday into Thursday? And for you powder hounds, Big Bear may receive up to 6" of snow. So stoked. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK: 

Sure the rainy season only started on October 1st, but we're already significantly behind thanks to La Nina. Here's where we stand as of today for precipitation:

• Newport Beach: 0" so far and we should be at 1.03". Normal for the entire season is 13.30"
• Oceanside: 0.04" so far and we should be at 0.93". Normal for the entire season is 13.66"
• San Diego: 0.12" so far and we should be at 0.67". Normal for the entire season is 10.34"

Now... if this weekend's storm drops anywhere between 1/2" to 1", we should be able to catch up and put the risk of wildfires at bay for a while. 

And while we're talking about the storm this weekend... here's what happened on this day in meteorological history!

• 1987: Heavy rain and thunderstorms that started on 11/4 and ended on this day brought 2.02 inches to Palomar Mountain and 1.16 inches to San Diego. Numerous roadways and intersections were flooded around San Diego. A roof collapsed in San Diego. Minor mud slides occurred on I-8 at SDSU, Mission Valley, and near Temecula. Flash flooding stranded 8,000 in Death Valley. Funnel clouds were observed over March Field near Riverside and several waterspouts were seen off the coast of Los Angeles.
• 1961: Strong Santa Ana winds that started on this day and ended on 11/6 fanned fires in Bel Air, Brentwood, and Topanga Canyon. It was 74° at 10 pm in LA with a dewpoint of 5°. 103 fire fighters were injured. $100 million in economic losses included 484 buildings (mostly residential) and 6,090 burned acres.
• 1960: Heavy rains induced flash flooding and landslides in Orange and Santa Barbara Counties. A young boy was trapped and subsequently drowned by rising waters in a drainage canal. Two men were injured when boulders sliding down a hillside overturned their truck.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

I don't want to holiday in the sun. I want to go to the new Belsen. I want to see some history 'cause now it got a reasonable economy (and some surf too. That doesn't even rhyme but whatever. England is firing and that's all that matters). 

Keep Surfing,

Michael W. Glenn

Steadfast

In This Moment Of Uncertainty, I Look To The Kardashians For Guidance

Da Cat Gave Me A Fish With A Swallow Tail That Worked Like A Dog At Turtle Bay