Goodbye NW, hello SW!
SURF:
As is expected this time of year, the NW swells back off and the SW swells start to build (as well as the rain leaving and the fog returning).
Fun week of surf, even if it wasn't big. This weekend we're in the middle of Groundhog Day with leftover SW swell and a touch of NW windswell for waist high surf and chest high sets. On the bright side, water temps are consistently over 60 degrees (jinx!), with most spots in SD and the OC showing 61-63. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the upcoming weekend:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 6:25 AM sunrise
- 7:15 PM sunset
- Seems like eons ago when the sun set at 4:45 around here
- Water temps are 63 in SD (and 52 in SF, 75 in HI, 85 in Guam, and 39 in Alaska if anyone is interested)
- And the tides this weekend aren't much:
- 2.5' at sunrise
- 4.5' mid-morning
- 0.5' mid-afternoon
- and 3' at sunset
FORECAST:
Got a couple fun SW swells lined up for the next 2 weeks.
Monday starts off slow then we get a small bump in the SW on Tuesday for more waist to chest high surf. That fills in further and peaks on Thursday for shoulder high surf and bigger sets towards the OC. One minor problem though- we could see a weak cold front moving through on Tuesday for a chance of DRIZZLE (crazy) and bumpy conditions of course. Should clean up by Wednesday though.
Once that swell winds down late in the weekend, charts show a chest high SW arriving again towards the 19th which will linger into the 21st. Fun waves all around, water temps inching up slightly, and no major storms in sight. Spring has sprung.
WEATHER:
Average spring weather the past week as you've probably noticed with night/morning low clouds/fog and temps at the beaches around 70. That sticks around this weekend then we see a weak cold front move through on Tuesday for drizzle, SW winds, and overcast skies. Wednesday will be a transition day and then we're back to... low clouds/fog in the nights/morning and temps near 70. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!
BEST BET:
Friday with leftover small combo swell, or Wednesday/Thursday with new SW and hopefully clean conditions, or clean conditions around the 19th and more SW again.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
You've heard of weather forecasts of course. And since you're a surfer, you've heard of surf forecasts (like yours truly). But have you heard of rip tide forecasts? Probably not. But it's a thing. And it's new thanks to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Here's how it works:
For the first time, NOAA is launching a national rip current forecast model, aimed at saving lives of beach-goers around the country. This new model can predict the hourly probability of rip currents along U.S. beaches up to six days out.
NOAA’s National Ocean Service and National Weather Service collaboratively developed and implemented the model, which leverages wave and water level information from the recently upgraded National Weather Service’s Nearshore Wave Prediction System. Similar to predicting weather or precipitation, the model predicts the likelihood of dangerous seaward currents on a sliding scale - from 0 to 100%.
“Safety for beach-goers and boaters is taking a major leap forward with the launch of this new NOAA model,” said Nicole LeBoeuf, acting director of NOAA’s National Ocean Service. “Extending forecasting capabilities for dangerous rip currents out to six days provides forecasters and local authorities greater time to inform residents about the presence of this deadly beach hazard, thereby saving lives and protecting communities.”
For the first time, NOAA is launching a national rip current forecast model, aimed at saving lives of beach-goers around the country. This new model can predict the hourly probability of rip currents along U.S. beaches up to six days out.
NOAA’s National Ocean Service and National Weather Service collaboratively developed and implemented the model, which leverages wave and water level information from the recently upgraded National Weather Service’s Nearshore Wave Prediction System. Similar to predicting weather or precipitation, the model predicts the likelihood of dangerous seaward currents on a sliding scale - from 0 to 100%.
“Safety for beach-goers and boaters is taking a major leap forward with the launch of this new NOAA model,” said Nicole LeBoeuf, acting director of NOAA’s National Ocean Service. “Extending forecasting capabilities for dangerous rip currents out to six days provides forecasters and local authorities greater time to inform residents about the presence of this deadly beach hazard, thereby saving lives and protecting communities.”
“Improved model resolution will enable forecasters to issue more accurate and detailed rip current forecasts further into the future,” said Allison Allen, Chief, Marine, Tropical, and Tsunami Services Branch, NOAA’s National Weather Service. “This information enables public safety personnel to better prepare for hazardous beach conditions and inform the public of potential for danger before they head to the beach.”
The forecast model covers a majority of the U.S. East and Gulf Coast and portions of California, Hawaii, Guam and Puerto Rico. Additional coastline coverage will be expanded in the future.
“Rip currents account for an estimated 100 deaths in the United States each year,” said Gregory Dusek, NOAA scientist who developed the model. “Before this, forecasters were manually predicting rip currents on a large section of the ocean twice a day and only a day or two into the future. The earlier prediction has potential to substantially increase awareness and reduce drownings.”
Further improvements are on the horizon and the application of webcam imagery and artificial intelligence identification of rip currents is showing promise across the research community. Partners in this work include the Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association (SECOORA), the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the United States Lifesaving Association (USLA) and academia.
As a surfer, it was only the waves and weather we had to account for to make sure we had the best session possible. Now throw in rip tide predictions to the mix. The only thing missing is a crowd forecast! Make sure to click HERE to use the rip tide forecast!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
This picture literally looks like a long lost photo you find on the wall in some dive bar in Western Oz. And if you ask the one eyed bartender where it is, he'd say 'It's gonna cost ya...'
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Unperturbed
Guiness Record Holder World's Longest Toe Nails
Spoiler Alert: I Win Kelly Slater's Ultimate Surfer Coming This Summer To ABC!
Michael W. Glenn
Unperturbed
Guiness Record Holder World's Longest Toe Nails
Spoiler Alert: I Win Kelly Slater's Ultimate Surfer Coming This Summer To ABC!
