2 Out Of 4 Ain't Bad!
SURF:
Summer is slowly creeping our way. I'm sure by they time we'll hit September, we'll be in full swing!
The past couple days saw 2 out of the 4 criteria I use for a classic summer day: Less wind and sun. For the Fourth of July weekend? I'm hoping for 2.5 or 3 out of 4.
Small storms off Antarctica last week is sending fun SSW chest high surf our way for Friday and Saturday (good for 1 point). Water temps aren't consistently 70 degrees yet (no points there) and the coast may be partly sunny (another 0.5 points or a full point if entirely sunny), and the winds should be manageable (add 1 more point)!
On its heels is a better storm for the Sunday to Tuesday timeframe with shoulder high surf. If the sun could just stay out this weekend at the beaches, I may just turn on the Emergency Boardriding System. It's all up to you Mr. Sun. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 5:45 AM sunrise.
- 8:00 PM sunset.
- Water temps are hovering around the 68 degree mark. If the sun peaks through this weekend, you might be able to wear trunks and a jacket. If it doesn't- short sleeve full. We also had NW wind today (bad) but the sun was out early (good), so water temps will most likely stay 68 all weekend unless the winds back off and the sun stays out.
- And tides are only an issue in the evenings:
- 3' at sunrise
- 2' at lunch
- 5' at dinner
- And back to 3.5' at sunset
FORECAST:
As mentioned above, the fun SSW swell rolls into the beginning of the week with shoulder high sets through Tuesday.
On its heels is a fairly impressive storm off New Zealand which is marching through the Pacific as we speak and will hit our shores later on Wednesday and lasting through the 2nd half of next week. Look for head high+ SW from it. And if the weather behaves, the EBS will be officially turned on.
Models show more activity in the southern hemisphere for chest to shoulder high surf late next weekend.
As far as the tropics go, our water in the Eastern Pacific has been on the cool side and anything that forms off Mainland Mexico, fizzles before it hits Baja. Good for Cabo, bad for Cardiff.
WEATHER:
Lots of hot weather in the western states- if your name isn't San Diego. Low clouds along the coast has moderated temps and sunshine with mild 75 degree temperatures. For the holiday weekend, looks to be more of the same. The only variable is if the sun comes out AND stays out. Let's just say that if we see partly sunny skies this weekend, I consider that a success. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!
BEST BET:
Really fun SSW 4th of July and Tuesday- and GOOD SW the 2nd half of next week!
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Hot enough for ya? As you've heard by now, the western US is literally melting. Over a six-day period during the middle of June 2021, a dome of hot air languished over the western United States, causing temperatures to skyrocket. From June 15-20, all-time maximum temperature records fell at locations in seven different states (CA, AZ, NM, UT, CO, WY, MT). In Phoenix, Arizona, the high temperature was over 115 degrees for a record-setting six consecutive days, topping out at 118 degrees on June 17.
Not to be outdone, Tucson, Arizona, set daily record highs on six consecutive days from June 12-17, with June 15-16 tying for the fourth- and tenth-hottest days on record. The heat lasted from sun-up to sun-down: the temperature at 8 am on June 17 was 98 degrees in Tucson. But if you wanted to experience the hottest temperature anywhere in the country on June 17, then you had to head to Death Valley, where temperatures hit 128 degrees (let's just call it 130 for fun. That's incomprehensible).
The heat extended much farther than the Southwest. Salt Lake City, Utah, tied its all-time record when temperatures hit 107 degrees on June 15, the last day of a three-day streak of high temperatures over 100 degrees. From June 13-19, high temperatures averaged 100 degrees. Billings, Montana, also tied its all-time high of 108 degrees.
Not to be outdone, Tucson, Arizona, set daily record highs on six consecutive days from June 12-17, with June 15-16 tying for the fourth- and tenth-hottest days on record. The heat lasted from sun-up to sun-down: the temperature at 8 am on June 17 was 98 degrees in Tucson. But if you wanted to experience the hottest temperature anywhere in the country on June 17, then you had to head to Death Valley, where temperatures hit 128 degrees (let's just call it 130 for fun. That's incomprehensible).
The heat extended much farther than the Southwest. Salt Lake City, Utah, tied its all-time record when temperatures hit 107 degrees on June 15, the last day of a three-day streak of high temperatures over 100 degrees. From June 13-19, high temperatures averaged 100 degrees. Billings, Montana, also tied its all-time high of 108 degrees.
And the cherry on top? One of, if not the worst, heat wave in the region’s modern records impacted the Pacific Northwest of the United States and western Canada during late June 2021, not just breaking records but smashing them over an incredibly hot four-day period. And unlike the heat wave across the Southwest mentioned above, this time the dangerous heat was felt across a region not known for such extremes.
A week after a heatwave broke records across the Southwest and northern Mountain West, a second, even more anomalous, heatwave occurred across the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada. It sent records toppling. Over a four-day period, June 26-29, daytime high temperatures skyrocketed to well over 100 degrees Fahrenheit, setting all-time records at dozens of locations.
Portland, Oregon’s, average high temperature over this period was 112 degrees Fahrenheit, the hottest three-day period on record by an astonishing 6 degrees. All three days—108 on June 26, 112 on June 27, and 116 on June 28—set all-time heat records for the city. Seattle, Washington, also had back-to-back days that set all-time heat records: 108 on June 28 after reaching 104 the day prior. In fact, in the previous 126 years, Seattle had only hit 100 degrees three times. It reached that mark in three consecutive days in June!
The heat reached right to the coast, too, as Quillayute, Washington, on the Pacific Ocean reached an all-time record of 110 degrees Fahrenheit, a “mere” 45 degrees above-average, beating the previous record by a mind-boggling 11 degrees! The heat was so intense that roads buckled across the Northwest.
And the heat didn’t stop at the US/Canada border. Western Canada also baked under an oppressive amount of heat. According to Environment Canada, Lytton, British Columbia reached 116 degrees Fahrenheit (46.1C) on June 27, setting a new all-time heat record for ALL OF CANADA! That record lasted for all of one day, as the temperature soared to 118 degrees (47.5C) on June 28. And THAT record lasted for all of one day as it reached a shocking 121 degrees (49.5C) on June 29. The previous all-time heat record for the entire country before this past weekend (113 degrees Fahrenheit or 45 degrees C) was broken by 8 degrees. Heck, according to Environment Canada, on June 29, six other locations also exceeded the previous all-time heat record for Canada. To put this into perspective, the temperature in Lytton was hotter than has ever been recorded in Las Vegas, Nevada (117), except Lytton is located 1000 miles north, at 50 degrees north latitude.
As with most questions about the atmosphere, there are multiple answers. The most direct cause of the blistering heat was a high-pressure system, stronger than ever observed in the region, that sat over the region for several days, unwilling to move like a stubborn dog on a walk. The cloudless skies and sinking air associated with the high pressure helped record temperatures build.
Adding to the heat in some locations was the prevailing winds, which in the Northern Hemisphere always blow clockwise around high pressure. Due to the topography of the region—mountains and high plateaus—easterly winds bring air from high elevation to lower elevations, which causes it to compress and heat up. These winds are called downslope winds, and they are known to kick temperatures up a notch all along the West Coast.
And finally, while there has not been an attribution study yet on this heat wave, climate change likely had an influence as well. As noted in the article on the previous record temperatures, heatwaves across the contiguous United States have occurred more often and lasted longer since the 1960s. According to NOAA’s Climate Extremes Index, the percent area of the Pacific Northwest that has experienced summertime extreme temperatures has drastically increased over the last twenty years. For the first 90 years of the record, an extreme heat footprint of larger than 50% of the area happened only three times. In the past 20 years, it has happened six times.
According to the 2018 National Climate Assessment, a scientific report by 13 U.S. federal agencies, heat waves have climbed from two per year in the 1960s to six per year by the 2010. The season for heat waves has also grown 45 days longer than it was in the 1960s, the report notes.
It is all part of an overall warming trend: The seven warmest years in the history of accurate worldwide record-keeping have been the last seven years, and 19 of the 20 warmest years have occurred since 2000. An analysis from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, a group of European climate researchers, found that the hottest year on record was 2020, tied with 2016. So we have that going for us.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
There's a lady who's surfs all that glitters is cold,
And she's buying a stairway to heaven.
When she gets there she knows, if the shores are all closed,
With a board she can get what she came for.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Presentable
My Uncle's Name Is Sam
During My Years On The ASP, Rob Was The Bain Of My Existence
Michael W. Glenn
Presentable
My Uncle's Name Is Sam
During My Years On The ASP, Rob Was The Bain Of My Existence
