Summertime And The Livin's Easy
SURF:
Having fun yet? These past few weeks have been a 4 out 4 on my 'Surf Scale' (patent pending). We've had:
- Waves
- Manageable winds
- Warm water
- Sunshine
Looks like the near term will be a 3 out of 4 (lack of solid swell) and maybe a 4 out of 4 in the long term (more on that in the forecast below).
For the weekend, we have a new small S swell filling in on Friday with a continuation of waist high surf mid SD County for the weekend, chest high sets in far N SD County, and the odd shoulder high wave in the OC. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 5:53 AM sunrise.
- 7:56 PM sunset.
- Water temps are feeling fantastic at 72-74 degrees.
- And tides are only an issue late afternoon this weekend:
- 2.5' at sunrise
- up slightly 1.5' mid morning
- 5' late afternoon
- And back down to 3' at sunset
FORECAST:
Still no big surf on the horizon, but we do have a new fun SW swell arriving Wednesday for chest high surf and shoulder high waves in the OC. That should last mid-week.
There's also a chance of hurricane Guillermo forming this weekend- and if it does- MAYBE a fun chest high swell for us mid-week (and better for the OC of course)? And while we're on the subject hurricanes, Felicia is currently spinning well off SW Baja. 3 problems for us:
- Felicia isn't that big
- Felicia isn't that strong
- Felicia is headed away from us
So don't expect any surf from Felicia.
For late next week and beyond, the forecast maps haven't looked all that impressive, but there's still storms forming off Antarctica. We should see more chest high SW around Saturday the 24th and Monday the 26th.
WEATHER:
May get a little tropical weather this weekend into next week. High pressure is forecasted to move towards the upper Rockies and as it does, monsoon moisture from the Gulf of California will make its way into our region this weekend. At this time, the mountains, deserts, and MAYBE the inland valleys could see a stray thunderstorm, while the coast could see those awesome tropical clouds overhead. Monday/Tuesday has clearer skies, then the 2nd half of next week, the tropical clouds should return. If anything changes between now and then, make to follow North County Surf on Twitter!
BEST BET:
If you live in the OC, this weekend with nice weather and fun chest high S swell. For the rest of So-Cal, pretty much the 2nd half of next week with fun chest high surf, tropical weather, and warm water. Kind of like Hawaii-lite.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Just when it looked like we'd be in a neutral pattern (or even a small chance of El Nino this winter), La Nina may again rear its ugly head (no offense). Here's the latest from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):
As things stand with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), neutral conditions are currently present in the tropical Pacific and favored to last through the North American summer and into the fall. But forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have issued a La Niña Watch, which means they see La Niña likely emerging (~55%) during the September-November period and lasting through winter.
I know you’re all excited for me to talk about La Niña, but I’m a killjoy, so bear with me for a second while I talk about the current state of the Pacific. In June, ocean surface temperatures were near the 1991-2020 average across the equatorial Pacific, including the all-important Nino3.4 region which we use to monitor the state of ENSO. Specifically, the June sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region was 0.25 degrees Celsius below average, well within the ENSO-neutral range. Ocean temperatures in this region have been quickly returning to near-average conditions over the last several months, increasing by nearly half a degree Celsius since April and over a degree Celsius since last winter’s La Niña peak.
As things stand with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), neutral conditions are currently present in the tropical Pacific and favored to last through the North American summer and into the fall. But forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have issued a La Niña Watch, which means they see La Niña likely emerging (~55%) during the September-November period and lasting through winter.
I know you’re all excited for me to talk about La Niña, but I’m a killjoy, so bear with me for a second while I talk about the current state of the Pacific. In June, ocean surface temperatures were near the 1991-2020 average across the equatorial Pacific, including the all-important Nino3.4 region which we use to monitor the state of ENSO. Specifically, the June sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region was 0.25 degrees Celsius below average, well within the ENSO-neutral range. Ocean temperatures in this region have been quickly returning to near-average conditions over the last several months, increasing by nearly half a degree Celsius since April and over a degree Celsius since last winter’s La Niña peak.
But as we have said, so many, many times: there is more to ENSO than just the surface of the ocean. Putting on our snorkels, let’s dive beneath the surface of the Pacific, where things aren’t as near average but still firmly indicative of an ENSO stuck in neutral. Waters were slightly warmer than average, except for the eastern Pacific where cooler-than-average waters developed near the thermocline—the layer of water that marks the transition between the warmer upper ocean and colder deeper ocean. But overall, nothing to write home about.
To finish off this trilogy of signs about our current ENSO-neutral Pacific, we look to the skies! After all, ENSO is a coupled atmosphere/ocean climate phenomenon. And for the past month, that atmosphere has been pretty darn neutral. Winds at both low and high levels of the atmosphere were pretty normal, and while thunderstorm activity was reduced near the dateline, things were mostly average elsewhere.
It might seem odd, then, with things seeming so… blah… that a La Niña Watch has been issued. To clarify, a La Niña Watch means conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña within the next six months. So, what’s in the climate model “tea leaves” that has helped scientists feel comfortable enough to start throwing the La Niña label around?
The answer, in part, lies in a strong computer model consensus. While most of the models we look at predict ENSO-neutral to continue to last through fall, many models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) favor a transition to La Niña during the fall and into winter. The NMME is incredibly helpful to forecasters in predicting the future state of ENSO, especially when we are past the notorious spring barrier, a time when model accuracy wanes.
Is it all that unusual to have two La Niña winters back-to-back? Nope! In fact, of the twelve first-year La Niña events, eight (!) were followed by La Niña the next winter, two by neutral, and two by El Niño. Honestly, with those numbers, it would have been more surprising if we thought neutral conditions would continue all year.
Putting all of those 12 first-year La Niñas together with 2020-2021, it’s evident how much this last year doesn’t stand out. Though, twelve past cases are not a ton to rely on by itself. This La Niña Watch is buoyed by much more than that.
One specific reason why and when any change to ENSO is important is the potential influence on the Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricane season. As noted on the ENSO Blog in the past, La Niña can help make atmospheric conditions more conducive for tropical cyclones to form the Atlantic, and less conducive in the Eastern Pacific. If 2021 so far is any indicator, it could be an active year: through the beginning of July, five named storms in the Atlantic have already formed, a new record—breaking the previous record set just last year. In August, the Climate Prediction Center will issue an updated hurricane outlook, so stay tuned for more info on that.
So what does that mean for Southern California? Could be a repeat from last winter since La Nina was also in charge:
- Below average rainfall
- Colder air temps
- Colder water temps
- Most likely below average surf
- Periods of consistent swells then dry spells for awhile
If last winter's surf is any indication, we didn't see any monster surf and it was off and on- we saw stretches of fun/good surf and stretches of NO surf. Oh well.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Last week was a right point, this week it's a left. Goofies rejoice!
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Decision Maker
Emmy Snub
US Olympic Surf Team (Board Caddy)
Michael W. Glenn
Decision Maker
Emmy Snub
US Olympic Surf Team (Board Caddy)
