Who Said Normal Is Boring?
SURF:
It's quiet around here. Almost too quiet. Fun combo surf earlier in the week has trended down to the waist high+ range with sunny cool conditions. Typical NW winds for this time of year have also dropped our water temps down to the high 60's and the cold front that moved through Nor-Cal the past few days will bring the expected warm up down here this weekend. Fall is acting like... fall.
For our surf, we had some good activity in the southern hemisphere last week which will kick in SW swell this weekend. Look for chest high sets by Saturday afternoon with NW windswell expected to join the mix Saturday/Sunday. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 6:38 AM sunrise
- 6:42 PM sunset
- Trunks no more? Unless you're ok with 67 degree water temps.
- And we have a little more action in the tides this weekend:
- 3' at sunrise
- about 5' mid-morning
- just over 1' mid-afternoon
- and back up to 4' at sunset
FORECAST:
The SW continues Monday with a secondary boost early in the week. That swell is also joined by more NW windswell/groundswell to kick the surf up a notch to the shoulder high range by mid-week.
On it's heels, we may even see a better NW groundswell by Thursday for chest high+ surf. Conditions should also be good too with mainly NW wind in the afternoons and sunny skies.
After that, models show a chest high+ SW forming this weekend off Antarctica that may give us more swell next weekend. In summary: nothing big in the next 7 days but plenty of waves.
WEATHER:
As is expected this time of year, storms are taking shape in the N Pacific as we gear up for winter- but can't quite make it all the way down here to So-Cal. What we get instead is high pressure behind the storm, setting up shop in the western US, and warm temps along the coastal strip. Look for sunny skies this weekend and temps in the high 70's. High pressure peaks early next week for temps in the mid to low 80's at the beaches before we get back to normal in the mid 70's late next week. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!
BEST BET:
Saturday though Saturday with varying degrees of fun SW, NW, or both!
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
There's been some big waves science has discovered throughout history- the largest being the one caused by an asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs- a whopping 5,000' feet tall (and you thought 50' Nazare' was big). We had pretty big surf ourselves recently, the one caused by the initial tsunami wave created by the eruption of the underwater Hunga Tonga Ha'apai volcano in January 2022. Scientists predict this one reached almost 300', around nine times taller than the one from the highly destructive 2011 Japan tsunami. Here's Science Today to explain:
An international research team says the eruption should serve as a wake-up call for international groups looking to protect people from similar events in future, claiming that detection and monitoring systems for volcano-based tsunamis are '30 years behind' comparable tools used to detect earthquake-based events.
Dr Mohammad Heidarzadeh, Secretary-General of the International Tsunami Commission and a senior lecturer in the University of Bath's Department of Architecture & Civil Engineering, authored the research alongside colleagues based in Japan, New Zealand, the UK and Croatia.
By comparison, the largest tsunami waves due to earthquakes before the Tonga event were recorded following the Tōhoku earthquake near Japan in 2011 and the 1960 Chilean earthquake, reached 30'+ in initial height. Those were more destructive as they happened closer to land, with waves that were wider.
An international research team says the eruption should serve as a wake-up call for international groups looking to protect people from similar events in future, claiming that detection and monitoring systems for volcano-based tsunamis are '30 years behind' comparable tools used to detect earthquake-based events.
Dr Mohammad Heidarzadeh, Secretary-General of the International Tsunami Commission and a senior lecturer in the University of Bath's Department of Architecture & Civil Engineering, authored the research alongside colleagues based in Japan, New Zealand, the UK and Croatia.
By comparison, the largest tsunami waves due to earthquakes before the Tonga event were recorded following the Tōhoku earthquake near Japan in 2011 and the 1960 Chilean earthquake, reached 30'+ in initial height. Those were more destructive as they happened closer to land, with waves that were wider.
Dr Heidarzadeh says the Tonga tsunami should serve as a wake-up call for more preparedness and understanding of the causes and signs of tsunamis cause by volcanic eruptions. He says: "The Tongan tsunami tragically killed five people and caused large scale destruction, but its effects could have been even greater had the volcano been located closer to human communities. The volcano is located approximately 70 km from the Tongan capital Nuku'alofa -- this distance significantly minimized its destructive power.
"This was a gigantic, unique event and one that highlights that internationally we must invest in improving systems to detect volcanic tsunamis as these are currently around 30 years behind the systems we used to monitor for earthquakes. We are under-prepared for volcanic tsunamis."
The research was carried out by analysing ocean observation data recordings of atmospheric pressure changes and sea level oscillations, in combination with computer simulations validated with real-world data.
The research team found that the tsunami was unique as the waves were created not only by the water displaced by the volcano's eruption, but also by huge atmospheric pressure waves, which circled around the globe multiple times. This 'dual mechanism' created a two-part tsunami -- where initial ocean waves created by the atmospheric pressure waves were followed more than one hour later by a second surge created by the eruption's water displacement.
This combination meant tsunami warning centers did not detect the initial wave as they are programmed to detect tsunamis based on water displacements rather than atmospheric pressure waves.
The research team also found that the January event was among very few tsunamis powerful enough to travel around the globe -- it was recorded in all world's oceans and large seas from Japan and the United States' western seaboard in the North Pacific Ocean to the coasts within the Mediterranean Sea.
Separate research led by the University of Bath atmospheric physicist Dr Corwin Wright published in June found that the Tonga eruption triggered atmospheric gravity waves that reached the edge of space.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
If I had to choose 10 words to describe Encinitas, it would be (in no particular order):
- flower fields
- cycling
- the Cardiff Kook
- Swamis temple
- surfing
- taco shops
- yoga
- Coté Brothers
- La Paloma
- dive bars
And if I had to squeeze in an 11th, it would be... wine? Seems as though the OG 3rd Corner Wine Shop & Bistro in the Lumberyard has been getting some company lately. If you haven't been to the new back patio of Good On Ya, do so. And if you're in Leucadia, take some time to unwind at Mrkt Space (yes, I spelled that correctly). And for those of you who buy wine in bulk, let me introduce you to Total Wine & More on El Camino Real (next to Target). And the beauty of this place? They have wine 'sampling stations' on weekend evenings. (For those of you over 40, you'll know how awesome this is). And new to the block? Little Victory Wine Market. Opened recently by fellow surfer Jeremy Simpson and his wife Kirsten Potenza, it's the perfect place to grab a bottle of rose' and a couple snacks on your way to enjoy the sunset. Get the 411 on their new location, only at the North County Surf blog!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Hurricane Fiona unfortunately devastated Puerto Rico the past few days with over 20" of rain and Category 1 winds of 85 mph which left a majority of the island without power- and continues to do so even though the storm has left. Fiona now sits off Bermuda with winds in excess of 130 mph and is headed towards Canada- which if it makes landfall- could be the strongest hurricane on record to hit the country with winds over 100 mph. In more peaceful times, here's what Nova Scotia looks like when storms stay offshore. Here's hoping that's the case again later this week.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
State Of The Art
Land Baron
Doing My Part To Reduce, Re-use, Recycle By Wearing Boardshorts Everyday
