THE Surf Report

 

Well, Well, Well. Look What The Cat Dragged In...

SURF:

For people who say that the weather in California is boing, well... they're right. But that's beside the point. This past week and the upcoming weekend will change all that. Then we get back to boring. But let's first talk about the surf this upcoming weekend. We've got some leftover SW in the water for Friday with chest high sets, along with a slight bump in NW windswell. So pretty boring- but the exciting (?) part will be the winds. 

As Tropical Storm Kay's low pressure approaches, it will interact with our prolonged high pressure and winds will trend offshore tomorrow in the 20-30 mph range with gusts to 40 mph+. Couple issues with the wind: 1. That might be too strong to paddle into waves and 2. Strong offshores will bring upwelling and a drop in our water temps. Goodbye 80 degree water! Another issue with Kay? Chance of thunderstorms along the coast Friday/Saturday. Not worth paddling out and getting electrocuted. For Saturday, winds will still be brisk but maybe only 20 mph with gusts to 30. As far as surf from Kay, the storm basically has been due SE of us (not good for SSW facing Southern California) and half of it has been over land. 

When Kay finally loses steam near our border, it's expected to drift W- away from land- and winds will still be around 40 mph in the center of the storm. That should be good enough for short interval shoulder high sets in northern SD and maybe head high+ in the OC. Sunday starts to see smaller chest high sets and more manageable winds. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:29 AM sunrise  
• 7:01 PM sunset  

• That was the craziest water temps I have EVER experienced. And I've been surfing for 38 years. We had 75 degrees on the weekend of August 24th. Then it dropped to 62 September 1st. Then Scripps hit 82 degrees yesterday. And this weekend after all the wind? Maybe back to 70 on Monday?! My guess is as good as yours.

• And here's the tides for the weekend:
• 2' at sunrise
• just over 5' late morning
• late afternoon 1'
• and up to 3' at sunset

FORECAST:

If the weekend is too wild for you, then next week is right up your alley. Tropical Depression Kay will linger offshore for a couple days so Monday/Tuesday look to have leftover chest high sets from the SW and less tropical moisture overhead. 

By Wednesday, we have new southern hemi swell filling in for shoulder high sets. That should last into Friday. Behind that, the southern hemisphere remains active- but models show it being a bit disorganized and storms due S of us (not ideal) but we could see some more S swells around the 3rd week of September.

WEATHER:

Where do I start? The record temperatures of the past week will give way too... plague, locust, fire, and brimstone. Of cours that's not true, but it will feel a bit odd the next few days. Let's start with tonight as Tropical Storm Kay approaches. High pressure to our N will interact with Kay's low pressure to the S and the winds between the high and low will make a 'Santa Ana' type offshore flow late tonight through Saturday. And if you know anything about Santa Anas, expect warm temperatures as the winds blow over the mountains, compress, and warm up as they get to the coast. Some models even predict 80 mph winds in the mountains and up to 50 along the coast. Wow. And though the cloudy wet storm will be approaching, temps will be in the low 90's along the coast Friday with showers and possible thunderstorms late in the day. For Saturday, showers/t-storms continue and the winds subside slightly to 20 mph+. Temps will also drop to the high 70's. As far as Sunday/Monday go, Kay will be well offshore from us but tropical clouds may linger and winds will get back to normal around here with temps in the mid-70's. Further out, we finally see low pressure return to the Pacific NW and temps by mid-week should be low 70's at the beaches. And for those of you keeping score at home, the northern Rockies will see their first dusting of snow this weekend AND another round early next week. Get those snowboards waxed! If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

Oh boy- tough call here. Maybe early tomorrow IF... the strong offshores and thunderstorms don't kick in until late in the day. Or wait until Sunday when the winds and threat of thunderstorms subside, but leftover Kay swell lingers. OR... just wait until things get back to normal (boring) around here and surf fun SW on Wednesday. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As Hurricane Kay was strengthening earlier this week and hugging the coast of Cabo, there was a lot of chatter about the potential storm hitting Southern California. There were 4 things working against it though:

1. Minimum water temps for a hurricane need to be 80 degrees and once it got to central Baja, temps dipped blow that.
2. The storm was brushing against the Baja Peninsula which was limiting the amount of moisture/energy it could gather from the ocean. 
3. The hot temperatures we've been experiencing in the western US was from a strong ridge of high pressure. That same high has kept Kay at bay. 
4. The chance of a hurricane or even a tropical storm for that matter hitting southern California is slim to none. 

While slim to none seems like it never would happen, it still opens the door to a small chance. So has a hurricane or tropical storm ever hit Southern California? Well actually they have. Here's the stats from NASA:

• The San Diego hurricane of 1858: This is the only tropical cyclone ever known to have affected California as a hurricane. Independent scholar Michael Chenoweth and researcher Christopher Landsea of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reconstructed the storm in a paper published in 2004 in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, using newspaper reports, daily weather observations by U.S. Army surgeons, ship observations and U.S. Coast Survey notebooks. The storm formed in the eastern Pacific Ocean in late September and intensified into an estimated Category 1 hurricane with highest winds of about 85 miles per hour (74 knots). By Oct. 2, its untypical north-northeasterly course had steered it just off the coast of San Diego, where cooler waters and strong wind shear weakened it slightly. Luckily, just before making landfall, the storm made a turn to the west-northwest, and then dissipated near Santa Catalina Island. Despite the near miss, instrument records in San Diego indicate the area experienced hurricane or near-hurricane force winds of approximately 75 mph (65 knots), heavy rain and considerable property damage. Heavy rainfall was also reported in San Pedro, Los Angeles and Visalia — up to 7 inches (18 centimeters) in places. There were few reports of significant winds in the Los Angeles region, however. The researchers reported that based upon historical records and modeling results, such a storm can be expected in the San Diego area about every 200 years, most likely during an El Nino event.

• The Tropical Cyclones of the El Nino of 1938-39: In Sept. 1939, just weeks after "The Wizard of Oz" premiered at movie theaters, Southern Californians may have thought they were in Kansas as well, as the first of four tropical cyclones affected the region during the El Nino of 1938-39. The first two storms – remnants of hurricanes – tracked northeastward across northern Baja California into southwest Arizona, bringing heavy rainfall to parts of Southern California: up to 7 inches (18 centimeters) for the first storm and up to 4 inches (10 centimeters) for the second. A third storm dissipated in southern Baja California but brought up to 3 inches (8 centimeters) of rain to parts of the Southland. Then, on Sept. 25, an unnamed storm made landfall near San Pedro with winds near 50 mph (43 knots), becoming the only tropical cyclone to ever make landfall in Southern California as a tropical storm in recorded history. In addition to the winds, the storm brought up to 5 inches (13 centimeters) of rain to the Los Angeles basin and as much as 12 inches (30 centimeters) of rain to the surrounding mountains. The storm caused heavy flooding and killed at least 45 people, mostly at sea. Low-lying coastal regions from Malibu to Huntington Beach were flooded, and thousands of people were stranded in their homes. There was heavy street flooding — up to 3 feet (1 meter) in places. Ten homes were washed away by waves in Belmont Shore. There was significant agricultural damage. The pier at Point Mugu was destroyed. There was significant disruption of communications throughout the region. The fact that the storm came on suddenly, leaving many people unprepared, led to the establishment of a Southern California forecast office for the United States Weather Bureau in 1940.

• Hurricane Kathleen: In mid-September of 1976, during an El Nino year, Hurricane Kathleen made landfall in northern Baja California and moved into California and Arizona, still at tropical storm strength. Sustained winds of 57 mph (91 kilometers per hour) were reported in Yuma, Ariz. The storm brought 6 to 12 inches (15 to 30 centimeters) of rain to Southern California's central and southern mountains. Ocotillo, Calif. suffered catastrophic damage, with 70 to 80 percent of the town destroyed. Twelve deaths were blamed on the storm in the United States. The Associated Press reported hundreds of homes were destroyed or damaged in the United States by Kathleen, which was described as a one-in-160-year event.

• Hurricane Linda: Sept. 1997, also an El Nino year, brought one colossal near-miss to Southern California with Hurricane Linda, the strongest eastern Pacific hurricane on record. This Category 5 hurricane at one point had maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (161 knots). For a couple of nerve-wracking days, National Hurricane Center forecasters warned the storm could barrel into Southern California, most likely as a tropical storm. Fortunately, the storm turned westward away from land. Still, Linda brought significant rainfall across parts of Southern California and waves up to 18 feet (5.5 meters), and caused several million dollars in property damage.

• Hurricane Nora: Also in Sept. 1997, in the wake of Hurricane Linda, Hurricane Nora crossed into California and Arizona from Baja California as a tropical storm, bringing heavy rains to parts of southeast California and Arizona. The storm caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage, especially to agriculture.

So you're saying there's a chance Kay could still hit us...

PIC OF THE WEEK:

This is what hard offshores look like IF... the wind is only blowing 20-30 mph. NOT the 50 mph gusts expected tomorrow afternoon! 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Heroic
#6,983,452,891 In Line For The Monarchy
If Baseball Players Wear Ball Caps, What Do Surfers Wear? White Caps! I'll Be Here All Week. Make Sure To Tip Your Waitress.