It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year
SURF:
With apologies to singer/songwriter Andy Williams, the holidays are NOT the most wonderful time of the year. Early fall is. Why? Our water is still warm. The south winds of summer/NW winds of winter haven't kicked in. The tourists are gone. AND we've got combo swell! What else could you want?!
For the weekend, we've got background SW swell with new NW filling in on Friday for more chest high surf. That last into Saturday morning then we're back to waist high+ surf on Sunday. Conditions should also be nice with sunny afternoons and mild sea breezes. And here's the tides, sun, and water temps for the next few days:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 6:43 AM sunrise
- 6:33 PM sunset
- less than 12 hours of sunlight if you hadn't noticed...
- Water is still holding on to 70 give or take
- And tides are straightforward this weekend:
- 2' at sunrise
- 5.5' mid-day
- down to 0.5' at sunset
FORECAST:
Got a couple more swells on the horizon from the NW and SW next week.
First up is a fun-sized SW arriving on Monday for more chest high surf.
Following that is an early season NW for more chest high surf arriving later in the week on Thursday. The entire Pacific looks active for the next couple weeks so we should see more SW/NW late next weekend into the following week. As far as the tropics go, they're still trying to spit out hurricanes. At this point in time though, they'll most likely crash into mainland Mexico.
WEATHER:
Nothing exciting on the weather front except for some late season thunderstorms in the mountains. Which I’ll take when compared to Hurricane Ian. A couple weak systems are heading into the Pacific NW the next few days so we’re just left with a bit more low clouds/fog in the nights/mornings. Look for sunny skies by mid-day and temps in the low 70’s. Night time lows will only drop a few degrees to the mid-60’s. And let’s just be honest here- we won’t see any real weather around here until January! If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!
BEST BET:
Nothing big on the horizon but fun surf Friday, Monday, and Thursday.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Let's talk about rain. Or the lack thereof (see: San Diego), or way too much (see: Hurricane Ian), or- where does it even come from?
Let's start with the basics. How do rain droplets form? The clouds floating overhead contain water vapor and cloud droplets, which are small drops of condensed water. These droplets are way too small to fall as precipitation, but they are large enough to form visible clouds. Water is continually evaporating and condensing in the sky. If you look closely at a cloud you can see some parts disappearing (evaporating) while other parts are growing (condensation). Most of the condensed water in clouds does not fall as precipitation because their fall speed is not large enough to overcome updrafts which support the clouds.
For precipitation to happen, first tiny water droplets must condense on even tinier dust, salt, or smoke particles, which act as a nucleus. Water droplets may grow as a result of additional condensation of water vapor when the particles collide. If enough collisions occur to produce a droplet with a fall velocity which exceeds the cloud updraft speed, then it will fall out of the cloud as precipitation. This is not a trivial task since millions of cloud droplets are required to produce a single raindrop. A more efficient mechanism (known as the Bergeron-Findeisen process) for producing a precipitation-sized drop is through a process which leads to the rapid growth of ice crystals at the expense of the water vapor present in a cloud. These crystals may fall as snow, or melt and fall as rain.
Let's start with the basics. How do rain droplets form? The clouds floating overhead contain water vapor and cloud droplets, which are small drops of condensed water. These droplets are way too small to fall as precipitation, but they are large enough to form visible clouds. Water is continually evaporating and condensing in the sky. If you look closely at a cloud you can see some parts disappearing (evaporating) while other parts are growing (condensation). Most of the condensed water in clouds does not fall as precipitation because their fall speed is not large enough to overcome updrafts which support the clouds.
For precipitation to happen, first tiny water droplets must condense on even tinier dust, salt, or smoke particles, which act as a nucleus. Water droplets may grow as a result of additional condensation of water vapor when the particles collide. If enough collisions occur to produce a droplet with a fall velocity which exceeds the cloud updraft speed, then it will fall out of the cloud as precipitation. This is not a trivial task since millions of cloud droplets are required to produce a single raindrop. A more efficient mechanism (known as the Bergeron-Findeisen process) for producing a precipitation-sized drop is through a process which leads to the rapid growth of ice crystals at the expense of the water vapor present in a cloud. These crystals may fall as snow, or melt and fall as rain.
Now that's what's SUPPOSED to happen in San Diego- to the tune of 10+" or rain a year. But as our 'rainy' season concludes tomorrow (the timeframe is October 1st to September 30th), we ended on a low note- our 3rd straight year of drought. So just how bad was it? Let’s take a look at the final tallies:
- Newport Beach: 6.92” of rain, normal is 11.18”. Only 63% of average
- Oceanside: 7.15” of rain, normal is 11.86”. Only 62% of average
- San Diego: 6.08” or rain, normal is 9.45”. Only 64% of average
On the flip side, Hurricane Ian in Florida the past few days has been one of the biggest to ever hit the state. Officials are still assessing the damage, but preliminary reports are:
- Sustained winds of over 140 mph before it hit the central west coast of Florida
- Storm surge of 6-8'
- Over 15” of rain in some locations
- And the size of the storm was enormous as it covered a majority of the state of Florida
- The wind was blowing so hard in some locations, that it was pushing water out of bays and it looked like a negative tide or what happens before a tsunami arrives
- As the storm formed south of Cuba, the swells it created were blocked by the island- so there wasn’t a lot of waves initially in Florida as Ian approached. But as the storm cleared Cuba and raced towards Florida, in a short span of time and limited fetch area, swells jumped from 0 to 25’ within the day.
- Storm surge was also a massive problem as the Florida coastline is low lying. For comparison’s sake, we’ve had a few El Nino storms over the years in which 2” of rain causes a good amount of flooding (Mission Valley comes to mind). Now think if the flooding was a storm surge instead, and it was in the range of 6-8’. Unimaginable.
- And a common occurrence here in southern California is the dreaded upwelling. NW winds will blow along our SW shores, push the warmer top layer of water back, and up comes the colder water. This summer we had some drastic 15 degree swings in a week. With Hurricane Ian yesterday, Florida also had a drop of water temps with some locations dropping upwards of 7 degrees in 1 day.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
With the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, the kingdom has now been handed down to King Charles III. I know everyone talks about the monarchy's jewels, Buckingham Palace, pomp and circumstance, etc., but it's surf like this in England that the new leader should be most excited about. Long live the King!
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Mystifying
Got The Hamburglar In My Happy Meal
Still Use Paraffin 'Cause My Surfing's So Hot
Michael W. Glenn
Mystifying
Got The Hamburglar In My Happy Meal
Still Use Paraffin 'Cause My Surfing's So Hot
