THE Surf Report

 

I Can See The Finish Line From Here.

SURF:

Nice to see a storm with only 3/4" of rain instead of 3-4". Are we done with winter yet? If this weekend is any indication, yes we are. 

As the storm exits the region tonight, we're left with chest high sets on Friday from dying SW groundswell/NW windswell. For the Saturday/Sunday, the weather will be nice and the swells will be down to the waist high+ range- and slightly bigger towards the OC as the small SW swell will be prevalent. And here are the tides, sunrise/sunset, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:37 AM sunrise
• 7:09 PM sunset

• Water temps are still 57- hoping to see some trunks by June with the building El Nino

• And nothing too exciting with the tides this weekend:
  • about 4.5' at sunrise
  • 0' mid-afternoon
  • and almost 2.5' at sunset

FORECAST:

Looks like another storm will slide down the coast on Monday but this time... not much in the way of rain for us down here- just wind. 

As it moves through, look for overhead NW windswell Monday/Tuesday. 

After that, the surf looks small the 2nd half of the week with maybe a shot of more steep waist high+ NW towards Friday. 

Then charts show a good SSW swell headed our way for late next weekend. The storm isn't that organized, but it does have a good fetch of wind aimed at us. Look for shoulder high swell towards Sunday. Is winter finally behind us?

WEATHER:

We could be finally done with significant rain here in Southern California- until summer when El Nino kicks in with thunderstorms. In the short term, skies will clear out this weekend and we'll have sunny cool conditions. As mentioned above, a weak front will move through Monday with a chance of light precipitation and a bit of a breeze. Behind it- mainly sunny skies and cool conditions the rest of the week. Here's a quick rundown on the upcoming week:

• Friday to Sunday: Mostly sunny and temps 60/48
• Monday/Tuesday: Cloudy & breezy. Temps 58/45
• Wednesday to next weekend: Sunny and mild. Temps 60/50

If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

Tomorrow with small/clean surf or we may have to wait until late next week/weekend until we see any meaningful surf. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Early in our winter, we saw a ton of waves, but not a lot of big surf. Then January hit and we got slammed by large out of control surf. And then the past month we saw more rain- but no large surf again. So why the consistent rain this winter but not consistently large waves? Well, let's first look at what makes surf.

There are 4 factors which are important for swell generation:

1. The size of a storm: If a storm is the size of Texas it will make a bigger swell than if a storm is just the size of Delaware.

2. Duration of the wind: If you get a wind gust that lasts a few seconds, you won't see surf from it. But if you get 50 mph winds blowing for 4 days, it will keep building upon the swell it's creating.

3. Strength of wind. 5 mph winds won't give you enough energy to make good surf- but 150 mph winds sure will (here's looking at you Category 5 hurricane).

4. Direction of the swell: If a swell is coming from the NW- and your beach faces S, then the NW has to bend to fit the S facing beach. And as it does, it loses energy. 

So how does the wind translate to an actual wave? Waves of course are most commonly caused by wind (or American Waves Machines out of Solana Beach). Wind-driven waves, or surface waves, are created by the friction between wind and surface water. As wind blows across the surface of the ocean or a lake, the constant disturbance creates a wave crest. These types of waves are found globally across the open ocean and along the coast. 

Once waves start to form from the wind, this energy passes through water, causing it to move in a circular motion. However, water does not actually travel in waves. Waves transmit energy, not water, across the ocean and if not obstructed by anything, they have the potential to travel across an entire ocean basin.

So back to the storms recently and the lack of large surf here in Southern California. It was all due to high pressure off our coast; storms were getting pushed into British Columbia, then dropping into California. The storm yesterday- and for a lot of them early in the winter- were missing a couple key ingredients from the 4 items mentioned above:

1. The size of a storm: The storm yesterday was fairly large, but...
2. Duration of the wind: The storm yesterday was short lived which inhibited it's growth...
3. Strength of wind. They did have strong winds- but probably the most important missing ingredient...
4. Direction of the swell: Unfortunately, it was due N and bypassing us down here.

So even though the storm yesterday was large and had strong winds (as well as dumping rain/snow on California again)- we didn't see large surf from it due to the lack of wind blowing for days on end as well as the steep swell angle. 

On the flip side, for the large swells in January, we got 4 out of 4 stars with these:

1. The storms were large
2. They blew for days on end in the open ocean
3. Winds were strong
4. And the storms were due W of us (which may be likely with our potential storms during our upcoming El Nino winter)

BEST OF THE BLOG:

Thanks to everyone that has signed up so far for the North County Board Meeting Golf Tournament on Friday, May 12th at Goat Hill Park. Sponsored by our friends at Venture LLP, we're benefiting the Carlsbad Educational Foundation this year. As a reminder, it's first come first serve (and we're filling up fast), so please reach out ASAP to Rich Clark at rich@logicopy.com or Michael Glenn at northcountyboardmeeting@gmail.com to reserve your spot, hole sponsorship, or prize donation. Thank you as always for the support. 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

I've got two tickets to paradise. Won't you pack your bags, we'll leave tonight.

Keep Surfing, 

Michael W. Glenn

Prevailing

Picking Aztecs Over The Owls

Used 1 of the Tickets to Paradise With Eddie 'Shreddie' Money

THE Surf Report

 

I Know Spring Must Be Around Here Somewhere...

SURF:

Spring officially started this week but if you took a look outside, it sure seems like winter is an unwelcome house guest. And as luck (?) would have it, we're due for more rain next week. But that's neither here nor there as I'm solely focused on the weekend right now. For Friday, look for sunny skies finally and cool weather to go along with a continuing shoulder high NW wind/groundswell combo. 

For Saturday/Sunday, we get a small reinforcement out of the NW again for more chest high surf- and nice weather. And here are the tides, sunrise/sunset, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:45 AM sunrise
• 7:04 PM sunset

• Water temps are trying to hold on to the high 50's but all this wind isn't helping.

• And nothing too exciting with the tides this weekend:
  • 0' at sunrise
  • 3' after lunch
  • and almost 2' at sunset

FORECAST:

Monday starts off with a new short lived SSW swell for waist high surf in SD and chest high sets in the OC. In regards to winter hanging around at the beginning of spring, we have yet another cold front forecasted to move through late Monday into Tuesday. 

Look for NW windswell to fill in late Wednesday and drop Thursday for shoulder high surf. Next weekend looks to be smaller in the waist high range with the odd chest high set from the NW towards SD. Maybe spring will finally arrive by next weekend with mild conditions...

WEATHER:

Looks like spring will finally arrive one week late- after the last storm blows through. Before that though, we'll have nice mild conditions Friday through Monday. Then hopefully the last of the storms move through Tuesday/Wednesday. Early indications is that it won't be much- maybe 1/2" and manageable winds. After that, we should have nice weather next weekend. Here's a quick rundown on the upcoming week:

• Friday to Monday: Mostly sunny and temps 60/50
• Tuesday/Wednesday: Showers- maybe another 1/2-1". Breezy. Temps 60/55
• Thursday: Clearing and cool. Temps 55/50
• Next weekend: Sunny and mild.

If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

This weekend with manageable chest high surf and nice conditions. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

As you've probably heard by now, La Nina is out the door and we're headed towards an El Nino by late summer. Historically, that means warmer water temps (hurricane surf and trunks all summer) and bigger winter storms (more rain and solid surf). Besides El Nino conditions, the overall ocean seems to be a bit warmer than it should be. Bad for the world- good for surfers? Here's the 411 from the Washington Post:

Earth’s ocean temperatures have risen so fast in recent weeks that one indicator shows surface waters have already reached their highest temperatures on record — a worrisome sign ahead of a predicted El Niño climate pattern that could further accelerate planetary warming.

Around mid-March, ocean-temperature monitoring data shows that average surface water temperatures surpassed 21 degrees Celsius (about 70 degrees Fahrenheit) around the globe, excluding polar waters, for the first time since at least 1981, when the data set originated. That is warmer than what scientists observed at this time of year in 2016, when a strong El Niño drove the planet to record warmth.

The conditions are surprising and alarming to some meteorologists and climate scientists, although they say it is far too early to assume that a record year of oceanic or planetary warmth is ahead. The data suggests, at least, that the planet, already beset with extreme warmth, is entering an expected stretch of accelerating heat.

The ocean temperature observations coincide with the release Monday of a definitive report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change asserting that drastic action is needed to slow global warming that has already irrevocably harmed ecosystems and communities. Earth’s temperatures are on a clear upward trajectory, already rising by at least 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since humans began burning fossil fuels to power industry.

The ocean data comes from a network of buoys, ships and satellites from which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration collects daily data on the first few meters of ocean depth. The database — known as the NOAA 1/4° Daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature — shows a steady warming trend in sea surface water since the 1980s, with each of the past several years of data ranking well above all older data.

And it shows that 2023 is on pace at least to be yet another year among the warmest on record for the oceans. (Sea surface temperatures can vary according to weather, but across all depths, Earth’s oceans are gradually warming each year as they absorb more and more of the planet’s heat.)

“Global sea surface temperatures just reached uncharted territory in modern records and likely much longer,” Mika Rantanen, a researcher at the Finnish Meteorological Institute, wrote on Twitter.

Sea surface temperatures are predicted to rise further, at least in the Pacific Ocean, as forecast models suggest El Niño is more likely than not by late summer or early fall. El Niño is associated with higher-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.

El Niño can accelerate the steady rise in global temperatures because those warm Pacific waters translate to increased evaporation, which leads to increased cloud cover, which blocks sunlight from reaching Earth’s surface and encourages the trapping of heat in the atmosphere. It is known for discouraging Atlantic hurricane development but triggering extreme droughts and floods elsewhere.

The recent trend of rising ocean temperature is “probably the beginning of” a transition to El Niño from the relative cooling influence of La Niña, said Gavin Schmidt, a climatologist and the director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. La Niña, which is marked by cooler-than-normal equatorial Pacific surface waters, had persisted for the past three years but ended last month.

But Boyin Huang, a NOAA oceanographer who focuses on sea surface temperature analysis, said that even if El Niño brings warmer Pacific waters, other oceans can counterbalance that trend. That means it’s too early to draw any conclusions about record sea surface warmth.

“There are other factors in other regions,” Huang said. It also remains to be seen what other data sets show about conditions so far this year, including ones that also factor in the rapidly warming polar regions. Other observations are reported only monthly.

“I wouldn’t necessarily expect that this means 2023 will be a record-breaking year,” Schmidt said, although he added that it will “obviously be in the top 10” for sea surface warmth. If “a fully fledged El Niño” arrives this year, however, climate scientists expect that a record-setting 2024 could follow.

As sea surface temperatures have ticked up in recent months, so has the temperature averaged over the Earth’s entire surface. The planet’s average temperature has increased from around 0.2 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average in January to around 0.6 degrees above that level in mid-March. Conditions have been especially warm in Asia, eastern North America and Greenland.

Climate scientists expect that 2023 will be among the planet’s warmest years on record and think there is a 65 percent chance it ranks in the top five. Last year was Earth’s sixth-warmest year on record.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

Wanted to say thanks to everyone that showed up to the North County Board Meeting last Friday at Broad Street Dough Co. Good turnout + good donuts = a good way to start the weekend. Wanted to also let you know the next NCBM event will be a Surf Meeting on Friday, April 14th. More details to come as we get closer to the date.

And the news you've all been waiting for... SAVE THE DATE! Our annual charity golf tournament is happening Friday, May 12th at Goat Hill Park again. Sponsored by our friends at Venture LLP, we'll be benefiting the Carlsbad Educational Foundation this year. As a reminder, it's first come first serve (and we sell out), so please reach out ASAP to Rich Clark at rich@logicopy.com or Michael Glenn at northcountyboardmeeting@gmail.com to reserve your spot, hole sponsorship, or prize donation. Thank you as always for the support and get ready to hack! 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

South of here. Like 2,000 miles south of here. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Keen
Picking Aztecs Over The Tide
No Wave Is Too Big

THE Surf Report

 

Most. Rain. Ever.*

SURF:

*Or at least it feels that way. For the amount of rain we've received, you'd think the surf would be bombing; but sometimes the two don't add up. The atmospheric river that's blasted us like a firehose is just that- basically a hose shooting water at us- but not an organized low pressure system. 

For the weekend, our main source of surf actually will be from the southern hemisphere. Nothing big- but spring is next week- so not unexpected. Look for small SW to arrive late Friday and last into Sunday morning. Best spots in the OC will see chest high sets and far N County SD will be waist high+. And here are tides, sunrise/sunset, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:55 AM sunrise
• 6:59 PM sunset

• Water temps are slowly inching up to the high 50's in SD. 

• Tides have a big swing this weekend:
• 5.5' at sunrise
• down to -1.3' mid-afternoon
• and up to 3' at sunset

FORECAST:

Not much going on Monday, then the next storm rolls in late in the day. As it does, winds will increase from the S, then switch to NW by Wednesday. 

In between it all is storm surf in the well overhead range- and lots of rain again. 

The 2nd half of the week drops and cleans up, then models show another WNW bearing down on us late in the weekend with most likely rain and wind again. The winter that keeps on giving!

WEATHER:

Not a strong storm this yesterday but LOTS of rain. Most spots along the coast received 2-3" of rain and the Sierras of course received multiple feet of snow. If you've never snowboarded Mammoth Mountain in July, this is going to be your year. But let's focus on the near term. Friday through Sunday look to be mild before the next big rain maker arrives late Monday and lasts into Thursday morning. I'm guessing we could see another 2-3" of rain again. If you haven't fixed the leaks in your roof yet, it's probably too late. Here's a quick rundown on the upcoming week:

• Friday to Sunday: Mostly sunny and temps 65/50
• Monday: Increasing showers late. Temps 60/53
• Tuesday/Wednesday. Rain- maybe another 2-3". Windy. Temps 55/45
• Thursday to Saturday: Cool and sunny. Temps 65/55
• Sunday: More rain late in the day?!

If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

Head towards the OC this weekend for small SW. Or if you're up for a challenge (and don't mind getting sick from dirty water), try your luck on Tuesday/Wednesday when it's big and messy...

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

After 20 years of on again off again drought, it's nice to see us above average in the rainfall department. With the 2-3" of rain this week, how's our seasonal totals looking? Let's take a gander:

• Los Angeles: 20.45" so far. That's 196% of normal. FYI- the seasonal average of 12.23" we've already hit that target and blown by it. And this time last year? Only 8.83" of rain! 
• Newport Beach: 15.43" so far. That's 160% of normal. And the seasonal total? 11.18". And last year we were at an unbelievably low 5.75"
• Oceanside: 16.24" so far which is 166% of normal for this time of year. Seasonal total we were aiming for? 11.86". And last year at this time was also awful with just 6.11".
• San Diego: 11.82" so far which is 148% of normal. Season total is 9.79" and last year at this time was  5.08".

And if you're wondering, the rainiest year on record for San Diego was 1941 with almost 25" of rain. So if you think this year is wet- just double our total so far this year and that's what you'd get for 1941. Impressive. 

In regards to the rain next week- and possibly late next weekend- if we get another 2-3", totals would be:

• Los Angeles: possibly 23" (and the rainiest year on record was 1883-1884 with 38")!
• Newport Beach: possibly 18"
• Oceanside: possibly 19"
• San Diego: possibly 15"

On a side note, the Central Sierra Snow Lab has recorded 55.66 feet this season — the seventh snowiest winter on record. The highest-ever amount of snowfall recorded in California was hit in 1938 at 68.24 feet. With the storm(s) next week, they should hit 60 feet. And just think- we're headed towards an El Nino next winter. More snow and rain! 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

California between storms.

Keep Surfing, 

Michael W. Glenn

Ambitious

Picking Aztecs Over The Paladins

Cashed Out My 401k And Bought A Louis Vuitton Boardbag

THE Surf Report

 

North vs. South

SURF:

If you haven't heard by now, Nor-Cal and especially the Sierras are seeing a TON of snow and rain for the near future. For us down here, nothing out of the ordinary but we will have some waves and weather. 

First up, a storm above Hawaii is helping break down the stubborn high pressure in the N Pacific and as it does, we'll see an increase in W swell LATE Friday with best waves Saturday/Sunday and shoulder high+ surf. And for the atmospheric river that will hammer Nor-Cal over the weekend, we'll see just a glancing blow late Friday/early Saturday, so look for showers and maybe a touch of NW winds on Sunday. And here are tides, sunrise/sunset, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• Saturday
  • 6:04 AM sunrise 
  • 5:44 PM sunset 
• And then Sunday... Daylight Saving Time!
• 7:03 AM sunrise
• 6:54 PM sunset

• Water temps are still 55-57 degrees (but should be nice this summer with El Nino. What?! More on that below).

• Tides are all over the place this weekend with the time change:
• Saturday:
  • about 1' at sunrise
  • about 3.5' before lunch
  • back down to 1' late in the day
  • and up to 2' at sunset
• Sunday:
• about 1' at sunrise
• almost 3' after lunch
• down to 1.5' at dinner
• up to 2.5' at sunset

FORECAST:

Even though high pressure is breaking down over the Pacific and the atmospheric river is taking aim at California, there's not a lot of organized storm activity. With that said, waves over the weekend start to taper off on Monday with dying shoulder high sets from the W. 

On its heels is another shot of W swell with more shoulder high surf late Tuesday into Thursday morning. We may though see another round of rain- heavier this time in So-Cal- so that could mess things up. After that, models are all over the place in regards to sun/rain late in the week but in regards to the surf, it's not looking like much. Hopefully that changes in the next few days. 

WEATHER:

Lots of interesting weather in Northern California the next week- and a little for us down here. As far as Nor-Cal goes, mountain tops in the Sierras could see over 100" of snow this weekend- with more next week. Winds will also approach 120 mph. Hillsides could also see a FOOT of rain. Did I miss anything? For us in Southern California, a little tamer:

• Friday: showers late. Temps 59/55 (not much change)
• Saturday: showers early. Temps 61/57. Total rainfall up to 1/2"
• Sunday/Monday: sunny. Temps 62/54
• Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. Rain. Might be up to 1". Temps 60/50.
• And who knows after that...

If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

Saturday to Monday IF... the rain/wind isn't a nuisance.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Did you hear that? Shhhhh. Listen again- that was La Nina shutting the door on her way out. Adios! After a 3 year run, La Nina is now transitioning to a neutral state- and who knows- El Nino could be our new roomie. Lets have the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration explain:

La Niña—the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern—has left the building! After a year and half of non-stop La Niña, the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system has transitioned to neutral, allowing NOAA to issue its “Final La Niña Advisory”. What can we expect for ENSO through the summer and into next fall and winter? I’ll get to that!

First, though, let’s bid La Niña adieu. The most recent weekly measurement of the sea surface temperature in the Niño-3.4 region (our primary monitoring region for La Niña and El Niño) was a mere -0.2°C (-0.4˚ F) compared to the long-term average. (To calculate a change in temperature in degrees Celsius to Fahrenheit, multiply by 1.8.) Also, the latest monthly value from the OISSTv2.1 dataset was  -0.4°C (-0.7˚ F) for this same region.  The threshold for La Niña is cooler than -0.5 °C, so we can say the ocean surface has moved away from La Niña.

The atmosphere is a little more complicated, as it tends to be! We still see some indications of a La Niña-like strengthened Walker circulation, with more rain and clouds than average over Indonesia, less over the central Pacific, and enhanced trade winds. However, without the cooler sea surface characteristic of La Niña, it’s likely this pattern will diminish in the coming weeks.

One measure of the atmospheric component of ENSO is the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI), which measures the relationship between surface air pressure in the western and eastern Pacific. When this index is positive, it indicates that the Walker circulation is amped up. In February, after nearly a year at or above 1.0, the EQSOI was just 0.1 This tells us that at least one element of the atmospheric La Niña response has weakened.

We’re often going on and on here at the ENSO Blog about how ENSO is a seasonal phenomenon, meaning the ocean and atmosphere criteria must be met for several consecutive months in order to qualify as La Niña or El Niño. The same is not true for neutral conditions, however. Once the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system is showing signs of decoupling, such as a monthly Niño-3.4 index value warmer than -0.5 °C, we can say that neutral conditions have likely arrived.

The forecaster consensus is indeed very confident that neutral conditions will remain through the spring. We know what you’re really interested in, though—will El Niño develop? If we can anticipate an El Niño, we can anticipate an increased likelihood of its impacts on weather and climate.  In contrast, a continuation of neutral conditions means the tropical Pacific Ocean will not be an actor on the world’s climate stage.  The lack of El Niño or La Niña means that there is no seasonal-scale influence from the Pacific to push around the global atmospheric circulation and influence seasonal climate patterns. 

Many of our computer climate models are predicting a transition into El Niño sometime later this year. However, right now is a very tricky time of year for the models, due to the “spring predictability barrier.” ENSO events peak in the winter and tend to decay and transition in the spring, so models often don’t have a lot of strong signals to go on. (Why do ENSO events peak in the winter?? This is a really complicated topic that we don’t have a simple, satisfactory answer to… (yet!)

Our forecaster consensus does reflect the increased chance of El Niño, with chances around 60% by the fall. However, the spring predictability barrier, together with the still somewhat-La Niña-ish atmosphere and the lack of strong physical signs such as a large amount of warmer-than-average subsurface water in the tropical Pacific, mean we’re not yet hoisting an El Niño Watch.

One fun little nugget of information is that, in our historical record dating back to 1950, we have not gone more than four years in a row without an El Niño. If we don’t have an El Niño in 2023–24, that will be five years! However, 73 years is a short record for a phenomenon that has decade-to-decade variability, so this is more of an interesting factoid than anything.

Meanwhile, in Peru, we've noticed warming off the coast in recent weeks. ENFEN (Peru’s commission on ENSO) recently issued a notice about the potential for a Coastal El Niño, an event which can have very significant consequences for rainfall in Peru. Coastal El Niño events can also spread west, preceding El Niño conditions in the Niño-3.4 region, so it’s something to keep an eye on. 

The Madden-Julian Oscillation, an area of increased storms that travels eastward around the equator over the course of one to two months, is in a phase that directly impacts Peru. Taken with the warm ocean surface, this is a dangerous combination that may result in even heavier rainfall than what has already started to fall onto the northern coast of Peru.

But what about us here in California? Well, as La Nina has taught us, don't expect everything to go according to plan (i.e. La Ninas tend to be dry in So-Cal with not much surf. As we found out THIS winter, we've had a ton of rain and a couple monster swells). What I'm hoping will happen though with the coming El Nino is:

• warm water temps this summer
• increased hurricane activity off Baja
• more rain next winter
• bigger surf

Keep your fingers crossed. 

BEST OF THE BLOG:

From the North County Board Meeting files: Wanted to give a BIG thanks to C3bank, American Wave Machines, Patriot Risk & Insurance Services, and West Peak Sparkling Spirits for a great event last month. And thank you to all who attended. Hope you learned a lot about AWM's amazing technology and you get to surf one of their pools in the near future.

And... on to our next event! The weather & waves will be suspect in the coming weeks so we'll be meeting at Broad Street Dough Co. in the Encinitas Lumberyard again. This time on Friday, March 17th from 8-9 AM. If you haven't been to Broad Street yet, it's a great group of people who make great donuts and a great cup of Joe. Come on down to support your community, talk a little surf while you're at it, and get the low down on the 8th annual golf tournament...

Thanks for the support and we'll see you on the 17th!

PIC OF THE WEEK:

A little shout out to our friends up north. Like an hour north. 

Keep Surfing, 

Michael W. Glenn

Ripped

I've Got Two Tickets To Paradise

Starring In The Ultimate Surfer Season 2

THE Surf Report

Everyone Knows It's Windy.

SURF:

With apologies to The Association, everyone, and I mean EVERYONE knows it's windy. And rainy. And snowy. What a wild winter- and there's more in store. But let's get back to the lecture at hand- the surf this weekend. 

We're in-between storms, so just expect some waist high SW groundswell/NW windswell Friday/Saturday and only waist high semi-bumpy NW windswell Sunday from a weak front passing by to the N. And here are tides, sunrise/sunset, and water temps for the next few days:

• Sunrise and sunset:
•  6:12 AM sunrise 
•  5:49 PM sunset 

• Water temps are 55/56 in SD, 54/55 in the OC, and 52-54 in LA. And San Fran is STILL high 40's.

• Tides are starting to move again this weekend:
• about 5' at sunset
• about -0.5' around 2 pm
• and up to 3' at sunset

FORECAST:

High pressure is still in control over the eastern Pacific, so storms are:

1. forming off Japan
2. then riding over the high pressure above Hawaii
3. hitting British Columbia
4. then dropping like a rock into California

What does that mean for us? Similar to our storm pattern in December- a lot of NW windswell and no groundswell to speak of. Next up? 

Another storm headed into northern California late Sunday and more head high windswell for us building late Monday, peaking Tuesday, and dropping Wednesday. 

After that, things go quiet until late next weekend when we may actually see a head high W groundswell. Be on your best behavior! Don't want to blow our chances...

WEATHER:

No real rain for the foreseeable future, so let's enjoy the sun while we can. Nice weekend ahead with cool temps, then a weak cold front will move by to the N on Sunday/Monday. Maybe a chance of light showers but NOTHING like we've seen recently. Tuesday should be cool and breezy, then we're back to mild weather. Here's a quick summary of the week ahead:

• Friday: sunny and temps in the high 50's, mid-40's
• Saturday: same as above
• Sunday: a little more clouds and high 50's/mid-40's again
• Monday: chance of showers, high 50's/mid-40's
• Tuesday: clearing and breezy, high 50's/mid-40's
• Mild the 2nd half of next week.

If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

BEST BET:

Tough to say- small but clean this weekend. Or bigger but windy on Tuesday. OR.. dropping swell on Wednesday BUT cleaner. My choice is Wednesday! 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

There's been so much weather this winter that I have whiplash. (I thought for sure it was from my Tom Curren head snaps, but doctor confirmed it wasn't). Whatever the final verdict is, there's been a ton to digest. In particular:

• Mammoth Mountain averages 400" of snowfall a year and it's already at 525" (that's almost 44')
• Snow Valley Resort above LA averages 80" of snow per year and is sitting at 180" so far...
• San Diego is at 9.86" of rain this year (La Nina might I add) and the SEASONAL total is 9.79"- with more storms coming. 
• Peak wind gusts from this last storm were 65-80 mph in the So-Cal mountains and up to 50 mph along the coast. 

All of this wild weather should be ending soon, right? I mean, we're less than 3 weeks from spring and our rainiest months are January and February. Well... the long range outlook is showing more storms headed our way for mid-March. That's good for our drought, but it could lead to some unexpected problems. Here's the LA Times to explain:

Soggy, snow-capped California faces the likelihood of yet another month of wet weather, but what remains uncertain is whether this late winter precipitation will augment weeks of record-setting snowpack, or cause it to vanish should warmer rains arrive.

Last week, a frigid storm transformed portions of the state into a white landscape while toppling trees, prompting power outages, spurring water rescues and leaving some residents trapped by heavy snow. 

Now, with forecasts calling for more rain and snow in March — including the potential for at least one more atmospheric river system — California is girding for what comes next. 

"If we were to get heavy rain with a warm system and a lot of tropical moisture feeding into it, that would melt all of the snow that just fell in the mountains," said David Sweet, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard. 

Typically, California's snowpack provides about one-third of the state’s water supply and has long been relied upon for its steady, slow melting during the hot, dry months of summer. A deluge of warm rain, however, could cause melting snow to fill rivers too quickly and trigger widespread flooding. "We need to stick that in the back of our mind and think, 'Boy, I sure hope that doesn't  happen,'" Sweet said.

 

Forecasters say it's still too early to say precisely how the rest of winter will play out, but the latest 30-day outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, issued Tuesday, shows above-normal chances of precipitation in all of California through March, as well as a higher likelihood of cold temperatures. That could bode well for the state's ample snowpack.

"We have considerable confidence that wet weather is likely for the next two weeks and an active pattern [of wet weather] could very well remain for the rest of the month," Jon Gottschalck, chief of the climate center's operational prediction branch, said in an email.

In the coming days, the western United States is expected to be "dominated by upper-level low pressure," Gottschalck said, which will probably deliver more low temperatures and low-elevation snow to California. That means "much of the precipitation, at least in the next week, will add to the snowpack. But the arrival of more precipitation in the weeks that follow could be some cause for concern.

UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said about 20% of forecast models are currently depicting a very strong and warm atmospheric river storm in California around mid-March. A series of nine atmospheric river storms hammered California in early January, breaching levees and contributing to nearly two dozen deaths.

Should such an event occur in the wake of extensive snow, "that could indeed pose [a] significant flood threat," Swain said on Twitter. However, he said that is "speculation at this early juncture" because the present odds of such a warm storm are about 1 in 5. 

The recent winter storm already dropped heaps of cold rain and snow in parts of California. Many Southland peaks received more than 50 inches of fresh powder, with the Mountain High ski resort in Wrightwood recording 93 inches, according to the National Weather Service. Daily rainfall records were set at Los Angeles International Airport and in Burbank, downtown Los Angeles and several other parts of the region. 

If similar conditions continue, the season has the chance to become one of California's snowiest on record, Swain said.  Across the state, snowpack remains incredibly healthy — 186% of normal for the date as of Tuesday, according to state data. In the southern Sierra, it's 224% of normal. Reservoirs are notably healthier too, with Lake Shasta nearly doubling its volume from two months ago.

The immediate forecast in the Sierra is continued icy conditions, including "a very cold pattern with multiple feet of snow this weekend," said Wendell Hohmann, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Reno. 

"The atmospheric river signals are pretty far out there, so predictability is pretty low and confidence is therefore pretty low on that," Hohmann said, "but it does kind of open the door for us to keep an eye on it at this point, see how it evolves."

In addition to flooding, a warm rain-on-snow event could pose challenges from a water supply perspective. Earlier-than-usual snowmelt, especially in the Sierra, can make it harder for the state's water managers to plan ahead, and can have negative effects on hydropower and ecology, experts say.

Sweet, of the weather service, said he primarily focuses on short-term forecasts but has also been keeping an eye on the longer-range models, which are "starting to hint" at the possibility of such a system.

As it stands, the forecast for more precipitation of any kind comes amid a winter that has already defied expectations in California. In October, seasonal outlooks pointed to a drier-than-normal season driven by a rare third appearance of La Niña. The fact that conditions ended up so wet speaks to the challenges of long-term forecasting, Sweet said "We still don't have an absolute razor-sharp focus, or way of looking at the extended forecast, and being really sure of it," he said.

Despite its hazards, the wet weather has had many upsides in California. Improved snowpack and reservoir levels have allowed the state's water managers to tentatively increase State Water Project allocations to 35%. In December, they said they would be able to give only about 5% to 29 agencies, which together serve about 27 million Californians.

The U.S. Drought Monitor also moved nearly all of California out of its worst two categories — exceptional and extreme drought — this year for the first time since 2020. 

As of this week, about 33% of the state remains in severe drought, the third-worst category, according to the Drought Monitor. About 52% of the state is categorized in moderate drought and 15% as "abnormally dry." One small county — Del Norte, in the state's far northwest corner — has moved out of drought completely. 

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