North vs. South
SURF:
If you haven't heard by now, Nor-Cal and especially the Sierras are seeing a TON of snow and rain for the near future. For us down here, nothing out of the ordinary but we will have some waves and weather.
First up, a storm above Hawaii is helping break down the stubborn high pressure in the N Pacific and as it does, we'll see an increase in W swell LATE Friday with best waves Saturday/Sunday and shoulder high+ surf. And for the atmospheric river that will hammer Nor-Cal over the weekend, we'll see just a glancing blow late Friday/early Saturday, so look for showers and maybe a touch of NW winds on Sunday. And here are tides, sunrise/sunset, and water temps for the next few days:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- Saturday
- 6:04 AM sunrise
- 5:44 PM sunset
- And then Sunday... Daylight Saving Time!
- 7:03 AM sunrise
- 6:54 PM sunset
- Water temps are still 55-57 degrees (but should be nice this summer with El Nino. What?! More on that below).
- Tides are all over the place this weekend with the time change:
- Saturday:
- about 1' at sunrise
- about 3.5' before lunch
- back down to 1' late in the day
- and up to 2' at sunset
- Sunday:
- about 1' at sunrise
- almost 3' after lunch
- down to 1.5' at dinner
- up to 2.5' at sunset
FORECAST:
Even though high pressure is breaking down over the Pacific and the atmospheric river is taking aim at California, there's not a lot of organized storm activity. With that said, waves over the weekend start to taper off on Monday with dying shoulder high sets from the W.
On its heels is another shot of W swell with more shoulder high surf late Tuesday into Thursday morning. We may though see another round of rain- heavier this time in So-Cal- so that could mess things up. After that, models are all over the place in regards to sun/rain late in the week but in regards to the surf, it's not looking like much. Hopefully that changes in the next few days.
WEATHER:
Lots of interesting weather in Northern California the next week- and a little for us down here. As far as Nor-Cal goes, mountain tops in the Sierras could see over 100" of snow this weekend- with more next week. Winds will also approach 120 mph. Hillsides could also see a FOOT of rain. Did I miss anything? For us in Southern California, a little tamer:
- Friday: showers late. Temps 59/55 (not much change)
- Saturday: showers early. Temps 61/57. Total rainfall up to 1/2"
- Sunday/Monday: sunny. Temps 62/54
- Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. Rain. Might be up to 1". Temps 60/50.
- And who knows after that...
If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!
BEST BET:
Saturday to Monday IF... the rain/wind isn't a nuisance.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Did you hear that? Shhhhh. Listen again- that was La Nina shutting the door on her way out. Adios! After a 3 year run, La Nina is now transitioning to a neutral state- and who knows- El Nino could be our new roomie. Lets have the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration explain:
La Niña—the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern—has left the building! After a year and half of non-stop La Niña, the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system has transitioned to neutral, allowing NOAA to issue its “Final La Niña Advisory”. What can we expect for ENSO through the summer and into next fall and winter? I’ll get to that!
First, though, let’s bid La Niña adieu. The most recent weekly measurement of the sea surface temperature in the Niño-3.4 region (our primary monitoring region for La Niña and El Niño) was a mere -0.2°C (-0.4˚ F) compared to the long-term average. (To calculate a change in temperature in degrees Celsius to Fahrenheit, multiply by 1.8.) Also, the latest monthly value from the OISSTv2.1 dataset was -0.4°C (-0.7˚ F) for this same region. The threshold for La Niña is cooler than -0.5 °C, so we can say the ocean surface has moved away from La Niña.
The atmosphere is a little more complicated, as it tends to be! We still see some indications of a La Niña-like strengthened Walker circulation, with more rain and clouds than average over Indonesia, less over the central Pacific, and enhanced trade winds. However, without the cooler sea surface characteristic of La Niña, it’s likely this pattern will diminish in the coming weeks.
La Niña—the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern—has left the building! After a year and half of non-stop La Niña, the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system has transitioned to neutral, allowing NOAA to issue its “Final La Niña Advisory”. What can we expect for ENSO through the summer and into next fall and winter? I’ll get to that!
First, though, let’s bid La Niña adieu. The most recent weekly measurement of the sea surface temperature in the Niño-3.4 region (our primary monitoring region for La Niña and El Niño) was a mere -0.2°C (-0.4˚ F) compared to the long-term average. (To calculate a change in temperature in degrees Celsius to Fahrenheit, multiply by 1.8.) Also, the latest monthly value from the OISSTv2.1 dataset was -0.4°C (-0.7˚ F) for this same region. The threshold for La Niña is cooler than -0.5 °C, so we can say the ocean surface has moved away from La Niña.
The atmosphere is a little more complicated, as it tends to be! We still see some indications of a La Niña-like strengthened Walker circulation, with more rain and clouds than average over Indonesia, less over the central Pacific, and enhanced trade winds. However, without the cooler sea surface characteristic of La Niña, it’s likely this pattern will diminish in the coming weeks.
One measure of the atmospheric component of ENSO is the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI), which measures the relationship between surface air pressure in the western and eastern Pacific. When this index is positive, it indicates that the Walker circulation is amped up. In February, after nearly a year at or above 1.0, the EQSOI was just 0.1 This tells us that at least one element of the atmospheric La Niña response has weakened.
We’re often going on and on here at the ENSO Blog about how ENSO is a seasonal phenomenon, meaning the ocean and atmosphere criteria must be met for several consecutive months in order to qualify as La Niña or El Niño. The same is not true for neutral conditions, however. Once the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system is showing signs of decoupling, such as a monthly Niño-3.4 index value warmer than -0.5 °C, we can say that neutral conditions have likely arrived.
The forecaster consensus is indeed very confident that neutral conditions will remain through the spring. We know what you’re really interested in, though—will El Niño develop? If we can anticipate an El Niño, we can anticipate an increased likelihood of its impacts on weather and climate. In contrast, a continuation of neutral conditions means the tropical Pacific Ocean will not be an actor on the world’s climate stage. The lack of El Niño or La Niña means that there is no seasonal-scale influence from the Pacific to push around the global atmospheric circulation and influence seasonal climate patterns.
Many of our computer climate models are predicting a transition into El Niño sometime later this year. However, right now is a very tricky time of year for the models, due to the “spring predictability barrier.” ENSO events peak in the winter and tend to decay and transition in the spring, so models often don’t have a lot of strong signals to go on. (Why do ENSO events peak in the winter?? This is a really complicated topic that we don’t have a simple, satisfactory answer to… (yet!)
Our forecaster consensus does reflect the increased chance of El Niño, with chances around 60% by the fall. However, the spring predictability barrier, together with the still somewhat-La Niña-ish atmosphere and the lack of strong physical signs such as a large amount of warmer-than-average subsurface water in the tropical Pacific, mean we’re not yet hoisting an El Niño Watch.
One fun little nugget of information is that, in our historical record dating back to 1950, we have not gone more than four years in a row without an El Niño. If we don’t have an El Niño in 2023–24, that will be five years! However, 73 years is a short record for a phenomenon that has decade-to-decade variability, so this is more of an interesting factoid than anything.
Meanwhile, in Peru, we've noticed warming off the coast in recent weeks. ENFEN (Peru’s commission on ENSO) recently issued a notice about the potential for a Coastal El Niño, an event which can have very significant consequences for rainfall in Peru. Coastal El Niño events can also spread west, preceding El Niño conditions in the Niño-3.4 region, so it’s something to keep an eye on.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation, an area of increased storms that travels eastward around the equator over the course of one to two months, is in a phase that directly impacts Peru. Taken with the warm ocean surface, this is a dangerous combination that may result in even heavier rainfall than what has already started to fall onto the northern coast of Peru.
But what about us here in California? Well, as La Nina has taught us, don't expect everything to go according to plan (i.e. La Ninas tend to be dry in So-Cal with not much surf. As we found out THIS winter, we've had a ton of rain and a couple monster swells). What I'm hoping will happen though with the coming El Nino is:
- warm water temps this summer
- increased hurricane activity off Baja
- more rain next winter
- bigger surf
Keep your fingers crossed.
From the North County Board Meeting files: Wanted to give a BIG thanks to C3bank, American Wave Machines, Patriot Risk & Insurance Services, and West Peak Sparkling Spirits for a great event last month. And thank you to all who attended. Hope you learned a lot about AWM's amazing technology and you get to surf one of their pools in the near future.
And... on to our next event! The weather & waves will be suspect in the coming weeks so we'll be meeting at Broad Street Dough Co. in the Encinitas Lumberyard again. This time on Friday, March 17th from 8-9 AM. If you haven't been to Broad Street yet, it's a great group of people who make great donuts and a great cup of Joe. Come on down to support your community, talk a little surf while you're at it, and get the low down on the 8th annual golf tournament...
Thanks for the support and we'll see you on the 17th!
A little shout out to our friends up north. Like an hour north.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
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Starring In The Ultimate Surfer Season 2
