Palm Springs Wave Pool Where Art Thou?
SURF:
Quite the week around here. Clouds. Drizzle. Constant W wind. Small surf. Cool water temps. Chilly air temps. If you weren't a fan of wave pools before, you are now. Palm Springs this weekend? Mid 90's. Would be nice to be in trunks right now, basking in the sun, catching a few shoulder high waves, then grabbing a steak at Mastros to finish off the night. Those wave pools in Palm Springs can't come quick enough (soon though- find out here).
For tomorrow into the weekend, we have an exiting small S groundswell and a new S groundswell behind it. Best spots in the OC will have shoulder high sets, northern SD chest high sets, and southern SD- not much luck. And here are the tides, sunrise/sunset, and water temps for the next few days:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 5:43 AM sunrise
- 7:50 PM sunset
- Water temps are holding at 63. Not cold per se- but not warm either.
- And tides aren't doing much this weekend:
- 3' at sunrise
- 1' mid-day
- 4' at dinner
- down to 3' at sunset
FORECAST:
Not much going on next week, just some leftover small S towards Monday, then small NW windswell mid-week, then maybe slightly better waist high+ NW towards the end of the week.
The southern hemisphere may get active again this weekend which could give us more waist to chest high SSW late next weekend. Long story short- no big surf on the horizon.
WEATHER:
This upcoming week's weather report is brought to you by... last week's weather report. Pretty much a carbon copy of the May Gray as it rolls into June Gloom. Here's a quick rundown on the next 7 days:
- Friday until... who knows. Overcast conditions, MAYBE a sneak peak of sun late in the day (don't hold your breath), and temps in the mid-60's during the day and mid-50's at night.
If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!
BEST BET:
Tomorrow with peaking S south or Saturday with a touch smaller new S swell.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
El Nino is coming! El Nino is coming! I think. Been lots of talk about how the oceans are warming up- and the Pacific in general- but it sure feels cold around here. So what gives? Is it happening or not? Here's the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to shed some light:
The tropical Pacific sure knows how to get out of a rut! Just two months after declaring the demise of an almost interminable La Niña, above-average surface temperatures have reclaimed the tropical Pacific, and temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific are expected to continue to rise. Consequently, an El Nino Watch remains in place, with El Niño conditions likely to develop within the next couple of months and then persisting- greater than 90% chance- into the winter.
We care about the potential development of El Niño—the warm phase of ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the whole El Niño-La Niña system)—because of the cascade of global impacts that arise from its occurrence, including the expected temperature and precipitation patterns. We’ll revisit many of these impacts in the coming months, but we’ll start by focusing on all the details of these rapidly developing conditions in the tropical Pacific.
On The Doorstep
The tropical Pacific sure knows how to get out of a rut! Just two months after declaring the demise of an almost interminable La Niña, above-average surface temperatures have reclaimed the tropical Pacific, and temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific are expected to continue to rise. Consequently, an El Nino Watch remains in place, with El Niño conditions likely to develop within the next couple of months and then persisting- greater than 90% chance- into the winter.
We care about the potential development of El Niño—the warm phase of ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the whole El Niño-La Niña system)—because of the cascade of global impacts that arise from its occurrence, including the expected temperature and precipitation patterns. We’ll revisit many of these impacts in the coming months, but we’ll start by focusing on all the details of these rapidly developing conditions in the tropical Pacific.
On The Doorstep
The April average sea surface temperature in the Nino 3.4 region (our primary monitoring region for ENSO) was 0.1 °C above the long-term (1991–2020) average. This value is up 0.2 °C from March and is the first time the monthly Niño-3.4 temperature was warmer than average since April of 2020.
When we zoom into the weekly time frame, we find that the latest Niño-3.4 measurement from our highest-resolution dataset (OISSTv2.1) was 0.4 °C above the long-term average, even higher than the latest monthly average. This is just a mere 0.1 °C away from the 0.5 °C threshold that is necessary (but not sufficient) for declaring El Niño conditions. Subsurface ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific also increased over the past month, providing a source of warmer water that can sustain a developing El Niño. How can La Niña seem like a distant memory so quickly?
Although the tropical Pacific Ocean looks ready to burst through that door to El Niño, the tropical atmosphere seems a bit more hesitant, remaining firmly in ENSO-neutral territory. As in March, the April Southern Oscillation Index and the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index were close to zero, indicating that the Walker circulation remains at near-average strength. For El Niño conditions, we would expect negative values of these indexes, which would indicate (1) a weakening in the surface pressure difference that normally exists between the western and central-eastern Pacific and (2) a reduction of the east-to-west surface trade winds that are the key component of the Walker circulation. (For La Niña conditions, we get the opposite – positive index values indicating a strengthened Walker circulation and stronger east-to-west trade winds across the tropical Pacific Ocean.)
Note that even if the monthly average Niño-3.4 index soon exceeds the 0.5 °C threshold for El Niño, forecasters will not declare onset of El Niño unless the tropical atmosphere is clearly responding in the expected way, including a weakening of the Walker circulation.
Peering Ahead
Forecasters have high confidence in an upcoming El Niño not only because of the rapidly changing tropical Pacific Ocean conditions but also because of the strong agreement from the latest computer model predictions. The current forecast from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), a set of state-of-the-art computer climate models, indicates that the Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature is very likely to climb above the El Niño threshold within a couple of months and remain in El Niño territory for the remainder of the forecast period.
In short, the signs of El Niño development that we saw last month have only grown stronger this month. Additionally, we’ve pushed one more month through the dreaded spring predictability barrier. Taken together, these signals have allowed forecasters to increase their forecast confidence this month, with the likelihood of El Niño approaching 90% by summer and exceeding 90% through next fall and winter.
The possibility of a significant El Niño is also growing; the current chance for a strong El Niño (Niño-3.4 index greater than 1.5 °C) is approximately 55%, which is up almost 15% since last month. We may have a better handle on the potential strength of this event, assuming it develops (still a 5-10% chance it doesn’t!), once we fully get past the spring predictability barrier.
Global Simmering
Warm ocean conditions are not just limited to the tropical Pacific. Despite some unusually cold ocean temperatures off the West Coast of the U.S., the remarkably warm global ocean has grabbed recent headlines.
For some additional perspective on this widespread warmth, I reached out to Dr. Boyin Huang, an oceanographer of the National Centers for Environmental Information with expertise in sea surface temperature reconstructions. Dr. Huang kindly provided the following of near-globally averaged sea surface temperature time series for two of our most used sea surface temperature datasets, monthly ERSSTv5 and daily OISSTv2.1.
First, we note that while the two datasets are not identical, both the ERSST and OISST datasets confirm that the global oceans are currently sizzling. However, they do have minor disagreements about record warmth. Although the global (non-polar) ocean surface temperatures have been warmer than at any point over the past 40 years in the OISST dataset since mid-March, the ERSST dataset has trailed the record warmth of 2016, at least until recently. However, Dr. Huang confirms a point of agreement: both datasets indicate that the global ocean surface was warmer in April 2023 than in any previous April.
How would a developing El Niño relate to the global ocean temperatures? First, global average temperature tends to be higher in El Niño years than in La Niña or ENSO-neutral years. Given how warm the oceans are already, a developing El Niño would only increase the chance of record-breaking global ocean temperatures (and global average temperature over both ocean and land), which likely would have important ecological consequences, including for fish and corals.
Another factor to consider is that the widespread ocean warmth may make it a little more challenging for the warm temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific to induce a tropical atmospheric response (maybe a reason for the current ENSO-neutral looking tropical atmosphere?). The reason is that the response of the tropical atmosphere depends on surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific relative to the surrounding regions. If those surrounding tropical regions are also warmer than average, then the bar is even higher for the Niño-3.4 region surface temperature anomalies to induce an atmospheric response.
The bottom line is that in terms of a push on the tropical atmosphere, we need to consider that the Niño-3.4 index may punch below its weight while it’s hovering in borderline El Niño territory, as it is now. However, if the central-eastern Pacific continues to warm up, we can expect that the atmosphere will feel that push eventually.
Coming Up
One of biggest implications of a developing El Niño in the shorter term is its potential influence on the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons. In brief, Atlantic hurricane seasons tend to be less active during El Niño, while the Pacific season is often enhanced. That means this month’s ENSO forecast is likely one of the factors that will be considered in the hurricane outlook. In the meantime, keep your eyes peeled on the tropics, and don’t blink – conditions are evolving quickly.
In Summary:
- One important factor of a building El Nino is warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region (basically the tropical eastern Pacific)- which is occurring.
- Another important factor is the atmosphere needs to be warmer than average in the Nino 3.4 region so storms can gather increased energy. Currently the atmosphere in that region is neutral- but heading towards El Nino conditions.
- And for us here in Southern California, we'd like to see warmer than average water temperatures for a variety of reasons:
- It would be nice to wear boardshorts right about now!
- Less coastal clouds = more sunshine.
- Really warm water off Baja results in major hurricanes results in good surf for us.
- BUT... we've had constant WNW winds all winter/spring so our water temps are cooler than usual which is resulting in more clouds, fullsuits, and no chance of an early hurricane season unfortunately.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Media Darling
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Michael W. Glenn
Media Darling
Turned Down The Part Of 'Ken' In The New Barbie Movie
Taylor's Currently Filming Me At Seaside For Momentum IV
