Sun's Out! (Kind Of). Fun's Out! (Sort Of).
SURF:
Actually saw the sun for a couple hours this week. So that was exciting. Also saw some light showers around Southern CA too, so that was... exciting?
The OC was the real winner though this week with fun S swell that basically bypassed SD.
For today, we have new SSW swell filling in which is better for SD's chances but still not much size. On Friday, look for waist high surf with chest high sets at the best spots. We also have small NW windswell which will bump up the surf. Saturday and Sunday look to be the same. There could be a CHANCE of short lived sun on Saturday afternoon, but don't count on it. And here's the sun/tides/water for the weekend:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 5:41 AM sunrise
- 7:53 PM sunset
- Water temps are ALMOST 65. Which is average for this time of year- but not exactly El Nino unfortunately.
- And tides aren't doing much this weekend:
- 0' at sunrise
- 3.5' late morning
- 2.5' mid-afternoon
- and up to 5' at sunset
FORECAST:
The key phrase for the upcoming week: Get it while you can.
We had a small storm form a couple days ago off Antarctica which will bring more waist to chest high SSW Late Monday into Tuesday. And just like this weekend, we have NW windswell building too. Those swells will last into Wednesday. After that, it's looking quiet around here. Next SW storm on the maps may form around the 7th which would give us surf mid-month. This could be slightly bigger than this week's surf- I'm hoping at least shoulder high. And maybe we'll see sun by then!
WEATHER:
If you like low clouds, have I got the weather forecast for you! As mentioned above, there MIGHT be a sneak peak of sun Saturday afternoon, but surrounding that? June Gloom. Low pressure today strengthens again earlier in the week with more thunderstorms in the mountains/deserts- and thicker low clouds for us. Here's a quick rundown on the next 7 days:
- Friday: Mostly cloudy. Temps 65/55
- Saturday: Cloudy and a touch of sun late afternoon if we're lucky. Temps 65/55.
- Monday through next week: Overcast (but you already knew that). Temps 65/55.
Until low pressure leaves the area and our water temps warm up. we're stuck with this weather pattern. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!
BEST BET:
Tomorrow with small but fun combo swell or Tuesday with small but fun combo swell.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
As mentioned last week, El Nino conditions are building in the Pacific and it's looking to be a doozy (eventually- more on that below). Regardless of what our cooler than average water temps feel like along the CA coast, the National Atmospheric and Atmospheric Administration this week released their summer hurricane forecast for the Eastern Pacific and it's impressive. Here's what they had to say (and I apologize- it's a long one- so scroll to the bottom and just read the summary if you're prone to boredom):
NOAA's 2023 eastern Pacific Hurricane Season outlook indicates an above-normal season (55% chance). There is a 35% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The eastern Pacific hurricane region covers the eastern North Pacific Ocean east of 140°W and north of the equator.
The 2023 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:
• 14-20 Named Storms (15 is average)
• 7-11 Hurricanes (8 is average)
• 4-8 Major Hurricanes (4 is average)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 90%-155% of the median. ACE is a metric used to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. These predicted ranges are centered on the 1991-2020 averages of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially runs from May 15th through November 30th. The peak months of the season are July-September (JAS).
NOAA's 2023 eastern Pacific Hurricane Season outlook indicates an above-normal season (55% chance). There is a 35% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The eastern Pacific hurricane region covers the eastern North Pacific Ocean east of 140°W and north of the equator.
The 2023 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:
• 14-20 Named Storms (15 is average)
• 7-11 Hurricanes (8 is average)
• 4-8 Major Hurricanes (4 is average)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 90%-155% of the median. ACE is a metric used to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. These predicted ranges are centered on the 1991-2020 averages of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
The eastern Pacific hurricane season officially runs from May 15th through November 30th. The peak months of the season are July-September (JAS).
Reasoning Behind The Outlook:
Two main climate factors are expected to contribute to an above-normal 2023 hurricane season across the eastern (and central) Pacific hurricane basins, as follows:
The latest monthly sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies reflect ENSO-neutral conditions, on the path to the predicted El Niño, and a negative PDO structure, while also showing the North Atlantic SSTs as above-normal for much of the basin. Dissimilar from the past 2 years, positive SST anomalies are measured in the far tropical eastern Pacific near Peru. However, SST anomalies in the regions where many of the tropical storms and hurricanes form (110°W-140°W) are still below normal. The predicted SST anomaly patterns indicate above-average SSTs across the eastern Pacific hurricane region, though there is some evidence of influence from the negative PDO related circulation pushing cooler waters southward. The cooler waters are expected to occur mainly west of 110°W. SSTs across the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) are above normal, and warmer than last year at this time. Historically, this combination tends to be associated with near- or above-normal hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific, as El Niño does tend to have a larger influence, though El Niño concurrent with a negative PDO is not that common (39 of 880 months since Jan 1950).
The most recent forecast from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center indicates El Niño conditions are likely through the hurricane season. The ENSO influence on eastern Pacific hurricane activity is highly dependent upon the background SST patterns across the eastern Pacific hurricane region and the Atlantic MDR. The combination of El Niño and above-normal temperatures in the Atlantic MDR tends to favor increased eastern Pacific hurricane activity, often resulting in a near- or above-normal hurricane season. El Niño combined with a warm Atlantic MDR and negative PDO, can result in a wide range of outcomes, centered just slightly above the 1991-2020 averages. El Niño and a high activity era in the East Pacific, which we may be entering, results in even high named storm, hurricane, major hurricane, and ACE totals.
Expected 2023 Activity:
NOAA's 2022 eastern Pacific Hurricane Season outlook indicates an above-normal season is most likely (55% chance). There is a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The 2023 eastern Pacific hurricane season is predicted to produce (with 70% probability for each range) 14-20 named storms, of which 7-11 are expected to become hurricanes, and 4-8 of those hurricanes are expected to become major hurricanes. These ranges are centered above the official NHC 1991-2020 seasonal averages of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
An important measure of the total seasonal activity is NOAA’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the combined intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season. This 2023 outlook indicates a 70% chance that the ACE range will be 90%-155% of the median. An ACE value of 80%-120% of the median indicates a near-normal season. Values above this range reflect an above-normal season, and values below this range reflect a below-normal season.
The Outlook Reflects 2 Main Factors:
The predicted SST anomaly patterns indicate near to above-average SSTs across the eastern Pacific hurricane region, and above-average SSTs across the Atlantic MDR. In the region where most tropical cyclones form in the eastern Pacific, SSTs are currently below normal. The uncertainty in the outlooks for the SSTs to reverse sign is reflected in the relatively moderate probabilities in this outlook. For the Pacific, these conditions also project onto the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In the Atlantic, SSTs project onto the warm (positive) phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). Historically, this combination of climate patterns tends to be associated with near-normal or above-normal activity in the eastern Pacific hurricane region. The exact interplay and net result of the interbasin relationships is uncertain and still a focus of ongoing research, and that uncertainty is reflected in the relatively moderate probabilities in this outlook. These conditions do not come about often, with only 39 of 880 months since Jan 1950 having an El Niño during July/August/September aka ‘JAS’ (JAS Niño 3.4 < -0.5°C) combined with a PDO < -0.1 during JAS. The exact interplay and net result of the interbasin relationships is uncertain and still a focus of ongoing research.
The most recent forecast from the CPC favors El Niño (91% chance) conditions during JAS with negligible odds for the development of La Nina (~0%). Historically, El Niño events usually mean more activity for the East Pacific, and often for the Central Pacific. During high activity eras in the East Pacific, typically associated with low activity eras in the Atlantic - which we are not in now, ENSO-neutral can produce about as many storms as El Niño. The conclusion the team drew from that is that during uncertain eras, ENSO can have an outsized impact, but that other factors can increase the uncertainty.
El Niño Favored
ENSO-neutral conditions are present at this time. As of May 22, 2023, the weekly SSTs are currently near average across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and the SST index for the Niño 3.4 region is +0.5°C. The weekly Niño 3.4 index had been between -0.5°C and +0.5°C since February of 2023. The Niño 3.4 index has shown a significant warming trend since December 2022. The wind and outgoing longwave radiation patterns over the central Pacific are also reflecting a breakdown of the atmospheric response to La Niña forcings, and more influence from intraseasonal modes. Looking forward, the official CPC ENSO outlook indicates a very high confidence in the development of El Niño conditions during JAS 2023. The model-predicted SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region generally indicate El Niño (Niño 3.4 index greater than +0.5°C) conditions throughout the hurricane season. The dynamical model average (dashed black line) indicates El Niño through the summer and autumn of 2023, with only one modeling system indicating ENSO-neutral. When using a larger pool of models, that includes multiple dynamical models, multiple statistical models, and unique combinations 21 of 24 models indicate El Niño, with 3 indicating warm but neutral conditions. NOAA’s Climate Forecast System (CFS) and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) are predicting El Niño. The CFS predicts below-normal shear over the East Pacific while the NMME predicts well above-normal shear for the same region. The shear predicted by the NMME this year is stronger than what was predicted last year (further from climatology) for much of the hurricane development region of the eastern Pacific.
Eastern North Pacific High- And Low-Activity Eras
In addition to year-to-year fluctuations, eastern Pacific hurricane activity exhibits strong variability on decadal and multi-decadal time scales. Periods of decreased activity (such as 1971-1981 and 1995-2013) are called low-activity eras, and periods of increased activity (such as 1982-1994 and 2014-2019) are called high-activity eras, though it’s not clear if the recent lull is indeed an end to a high-activity era, or simply a pause, given 2022 being a normal year. These are different from the high- and low-activity eras in the Atlantic hurricane region. The differences in seasonal activity between these two eras for the eastern Pacific are considerable. High-activity eras average about 4.5 more named storms, 2.8 more hurricanes, 2.3 more major hurricanes, and 56 more ACE points, than low-activity eras. During high-activity eras, above-normal seasons occur about three times more frequently (63% of seasons compared to 20%), and below-normal seasons are about four times less frequent (11% compared to 43%).
High- and low-activity eras in the eastern Pacific hurricane region are strongly related to global patterns of SST anomalies that change slowly and last for many years. It is upon these patterns that the inter-annual ENSO signal overlays. One such pattern is called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO spans most of the North Pacific Ocean, and is associated with decadal fluctuations in hurricane activity. The positive (negative) phase of the PDO tends to be associated with high- (low-) activity eras. Another SST pattern is the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and when linked to wind patterns can be more broadly described as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), measured through the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The cold (warm) phase of the AMO increases the likelihood of a high- (low-) activity era. The AMO helps to explain the inverse relationship in activity between the eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins, with a warm AMO/positive AMM favoring increased Atlantic activity and decreased eastern Pacific activity. The AMO is positive this year with warm SSTs this year in the North Atlantic. The SST pattern in 2022 was also similar, but the eastern Pacific experienced above-normal activity.
The 1982-1994 high-activity era was associated with a cold AMO and a positive PDO, while the period from 2014-2019 exhibited higher activity and primarily featured a strong positive PDO, there is uncertainty about the classification of the activity regime in the Pacific. Such a short period of years would not define an activity era. This lull in activity could just be more consistent with repeat La Niña events overriding the multi-year signals. The intervening 1995-2013 low-activity era featured a warm AMO and negative PDO. Of the years when the August PDO was negative, approximately 70% of those years were near normal or below normal for activity (16 of 22 since 1971). The current value of the PDO is -2.15, and the SST patterns from this spring are similar to many low-activity years.
There is medium confidence that the current negative PDO pattern will persist through the hurricane season. One reason is that SST forecasts made several months ahead tend to have limited skill. Another reason is that the current negative PDO signal partly reflects the synoptic-scale wind and pressure patterns during the past months, influenced by La Nina, which is forecast to completely fade. ENSO changes typically lead PDO changes by months to seasons, with studies showing ENSO leading PDO by 6 to 24 months. In addition, JAS Niño 3.4 values and JAS PDO values are correlated at about 0.50, and the predictions for Niño 3.4 are well above zero (i.e., El Niño) in many models. The official ENSO outlook probabilities indicate the relatively high likelihood of El Niño. During El Niño years in high-activity eras, tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific has almost a zero percent chance of a below-normal season based on data back to 1970. During El Niño years in low-activity eras, historical data indicate a 20% chance of a below-normal season. The current outlook, to account for uncertainty in the activity era classification, includes a 10% chance for a below-normal season.
In summary:
• We should at worst have an ‘average’ hurricane season and at best a firing summer for surf (55% chance).
• The Accumulated Cyclone Energy is expected to basically be 100-150% of normal.
• There’s a 90% chance of El Nino from July through September.
• Sea surface temperatures in a majority of the Pacific are way above normal, leading to increased energy for storms. BUT.. temperatures off the CA/Baja coasts are slightly below normal due to this week low pressure (i.e. NW winds) we’ve had all winter/spring. That ‘blocks’ storms from growing and getting close to us which limits surf size. The low pressure system though is forecasted to break down this summer and in return, our water temps will warm up- but don’t expect anything out of the ordinary here in So-Cal until July I’m guessing.
• The last 2 eras of active storm activity were 1982-1994 and 2014-2019. Currently we’re in a low area of activity (which is obvious the past few years if you’re a surfer). If the El Nino forms as predicted, will we be entering a phase of above normal storm activity for years to come? Let’s hope so.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Sophisticated
Just Found Out Al Pacino Is My Great Grandad
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Michael W. Glenn
Sophisticated
Just Found Out Al Pacino Is My Great Grandad
Starting An Alternate Surf Tour With AI Judges
