THE Surf Report

 

Summer Is A State Of Mind

SURF:

June Gloom isn't unusual this time of year- but the persistence is. It would be one thing to have at least have some surf in SD with all these clouds lately. 

But no surf, clouds, wind, and cold water? C'mon! 

For the weekend, we had small SSW filling in today for waist high surf in SD and chest high+ in the OC. We also have small background NW. Nothing major- but if the sun comes out- it may look appealing. And here's the sun/tides/water temps for the weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset on June 21st- the 1st day of summer!:
• 5:40 AM sunrise 
• 8:00 PM sunset 
• And if you happen to be in the surf town of Tofino, British Columbia next week, sunrise and sunset are...
• 5:18 AM
• 9:32 PM. Epic!

• Water temps:
• May not seem like it, but we're SLOWLY inching towards the mid-60's in some spots along the CA coast today. Maybe one day we can put those 4/3's away and break out the 3/2's.

• And tides are low/high early/late and medium in the middle:
• 0' at sunrise
• 3.5' late morning
• 2.5' early afternoon
• and up to 5' at sunset

FORECAST:

Next week changes slightly for the better, I think. 

We've got a new straight S swell again headed our way late Monday (better for Orange County as usual) but we also have some NW wind/groundswell filling in at the same time. Best combo spots could be chest high Tuesday/Wednesday. I'll believe it when I see it. Models though do show yet another low pressure system moving into Southern CA so it could be breezy. Behind that, forecast charts show a storm off Antarctica forming this weekend which could give us chest high+ SW around the 24th-26th timeframe. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter.

WEATHER:

We're still not our of the woods yet with below average air temps and low clouds. We may though see a little more afternoon sunshine though and temps near 70 at the beaches this weekend. That would be a fresh change. As mentioned above, we could have another weak low pressure system moving in early next week for a deeper marine layer and breezy conditions. The 2nd half of next week looks to be cool/cloudy. Here’s what we have for the upcoming week:

•    Friday to Sunday: Maybe some afternoon sun. Temps 70/60
•    Monday to Wednesday: Cloudy/breezy. Temps 65/60.
•    Thursday through next weekend: Mostly cloudy. Temps 68/60.

BEST BET:

If you can handle some bumpy conditions, next Tuesday/Wednesday with NW wind/groundswell and smaller straight S swell. Or just wait until next weekend with better SW.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Got a smorgasbord today. Let's start with our weather the past 6 months. We had a La Nina weather pattern in place over most of the Pacific which should have been below average rain and below average air/water temps. The temps part was correct as we've been below average for the past 6 months when it comes to our air temperatures. Low pressure above, an occasional shower, the subsequent WNW wind, and the resulting upwelling has been something to behold for 2023. Stubborn low pressure has given us cloudy skies and upwelling offshore which cools our land temps. Until high pressure builds and we get more SSW winds to pool up the ocean water in Southern CA, we'll look and feel more like April around here than August. On the flip side, the abundance of snow and rain this winter, along the cooler temps this spring, is delaying our wildfire season. 

In regards to our water temps, we should be consistently at 65 degrees by now, but we're sitting at 62-63. Here's just a sampling of water temps around California today: Santa Cruz 61 degrees, Del Mar 61 degrees, and for the heck of it- snow fed Lake Tahoe isn't much better at 58. As mentioned above, the constant W or NW wind off our coast has brought the cold water to the surface and it's keeping us in cloudy skies, colder than average water temps, and cooler than average air temps. What does that mean for hurricanes this summer? Right now, the 'El Nino' region off South American in the Eastern Pacific equator region is on fire (awesome). That warm water though can't migrate towards us due to our WNW winds (bummer). Until those winds back off, we're stuck with a barrier off Baja of water temps cooler than 80 degrees- the threshold for hurricane formation. 

Of course our weather and surf has been extreme the past decade- it's all or nothing. It wouldn't shock me later this summer for our water to be over 80 degrees, hurricanes to move up the coast off Baja, and thunderstorms to be a normal occurrence. 

And as a reminder, it may not seem like summer is just around the corner, but we are hitting the longest day of the year on Wednesday the 21st. The summer solstice occurs at the moment the earth's tilt toward the sun is at a maximum. Therefore, on the day of the summer solstice, the sun appears at its highest elevation with a noontime position that changes very little for several days before and after the summer solstice. In fact, the word solstice comes from Latin solstitium or sol (the sun) + -stit-, -stes (standing). The summer solstice occurs when the sun is directly over the Tropic of Cancer, which is located at 23.5° latitude North, and runs through Mexico, the Bahamas, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, India, and southern China. The sun will be directly over the Tropic of Cancer at 7:47 AM PDT.  For every place north of the Tropic of Cancer, the sun is at its highest point in the sky and this is the longest day of the year. 

You may be wondering why the longest day of the year is not normally the warmest day of the year. There is a lag between the longest day of the year and the warmest average temperatures for most of the mid and high latitude locations. The sun angle is high before and after the summer solstice with a maximum number of daylight minutes.  As the sun begins to move lower in the sky the length of daylight decreases.

This lag in temperature occurs because even though the minutes of daylight are decreasing, the earth's surface and atmosphere continues to receive more energy than just what it receives from the sun.  Average temperatures continue to climb until the sun drops lower in the sky. While the effect is evident in the daily temperature plot, it is more readily apparent by looking at changes in the monthly average temperature. 

So there you have it- cool temps now- warmer temps later this summer! 

BEST OF THE BLOG:

 

Looking to shake off some rust and get back in the water? Look no further- the North County Board Meeting's got a Surf Meeting TOMORROW- Friday the 16th! And if that's not enough, our friends at Sharp Eye Surfboards will be joining us. Come see the latest and greatest shapes that top pros like Kanoa, Jake, Filipe, Rio, and others are riding to victory. We'll be meeting at George's, just south of the Chart House in Cardiff, at 8 AM. Grab a bite, network, support your local community, catch a couple waves, and start the weekend off right. Look for the tent as always and hit me up at northcountyboardmeeting@gmail.com with any questions. Thanks for the support and we'll see you Friday! 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

 

The pros are in El Salvador this week. Think I'll turn pro. 

Keep Surfing, 

Michael W. Glenn

Prepared

Replacing Messi at PSG

Surfboard Test Pilot