2 Steps Up, 1 Step Back
SURF:
What a great week around here. Where do I begin? We had abundant sunshine, the wind stop blowing from the NW, our water temps inched upwards, and we had fun small combo swell. Things are looking up! For the weekend, we have a weak little low pressure system moving by to the N and we'll get a bit more clouds on Friday, but that's about it. The result will be waist high SW/NW combo swell, similar to today. And here's the sun/tides/water temps for the weekend:
- Sunrise and sunset this weekend:
- 5:42 AM sunrise
- 8:00 PM sunset
- Water temps:
- We FINALLY have SW winds pooling up our water into the CA bight. Result? Slowly warming water temps. Even though we're still slightly cooler than we should be, most buoys today are 63-65 in So-Cal.
- And tides are pretty mellow this weekend:
- 2' at sunrise
- 0.5' mid-morning
- about 4' at 4 PM
- and 3' at sunset
FORECAST:
Things are looking up around here. After a slow but sunny weekend, we have a few storms on the charts which will give us fun surf next week- and maybe into the 4th of July.
First up is a medium sized storm off Antarctica a couple days ago which will send chest high sets to S and SW facing beaches on Tuesday. Charts also show another weak cold front moving by to the N on Tuesday also, so we may see a little NW windswell too.
After that, another good storm is forecasted to spin up this weekend in the southern hemisphere which could give us chest high+ SSW swell at the end of the month.
And the real eye opener- if the models aren't wack (which they have been recently when it comes to Mainland Mexico) is a hurricane that COULD give us good surf around the 3rd.
The big if though (and it's a big if) is that the water temps off Mainland Mexico are above average right now (good for storm formation) but as the hurricane moves towards Baja, the waters are colder than average (bad for storm formation). Hopefully the storm is large and it can last as it moves into our storm window. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter.
WEATHER:
When it comes to the sun, better late than never I guess. June Gloom is expected, but not from January to June. As mentioned above, we have a couple weak low pressure systems forecasted to move by to the N on Friday and Tuesday which will make the low clouds a little harder to burn off. But from Saturday to Monday? Sunny skies and temps in the low 70's along the coast. For the 2nd half of next week, that strong high pressure in Texas you've probably read about, that may move ever slow slightly towards the west. If so, we could have a warm up along the coast by next weekend and into the 4th of July. In summary, here’s what we have for the upcoming week:
- Friday: A little more stubborn low clouds. Temps 65/58
- Saturday to Monday: Mostly sunny. Temps 70/60
- Tuesday: More low clouds. Temps 68/60.
- Wednesday and beyond: Mostly sunny and slightly warmer temps...
BEST BET:
Pretty much Tuesday and beyond. OR... if our 1st hurricane of the season materializes AND stays in our swell window... early July 3rd fireworks?
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
With the potential for Hurricane Adrian to form next week, thought it was time to dive deeper into hurricanes and in particular, how they form.
Hurricanes are powerhouse weather events that suck heat from tropical waters to fuel their fury. These violent storms form over the ocean, often beginning as a tropical wave—a low pressure area that moves through the moisture-rich tropics, possibly enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity.
As this weather system moves westward across the tropics, warm ocean air rises into the storm, forming an area of low pressure underneath. This causes more air to rush in. The air then rises and cools, forming clouds and thunderstorms. Up in the clouds, water condenses and forms droplets, releasing even more heat to power the storm. As far as water temperatures go, the usual threshold is a storm won't form in sea surface temperatures less than 80 degrees.
When wind speeds within such a storm reach 74 mph, it’s classified as a hurricane. The terms “hurricane” and “tropical cyclone” refer to the same kind of storm: a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation.
During just one hurricane, raging winds can churn out about half as much energy as the electrical generating capacity of the entire world, while cloud and rain formation from the same storm might release a staggering 400 times that amount.
Whipping up a hurricane calls for a number of ingredients readily available in tropical areas:
Hurricanes are powerhouse weather events that suck heat from tropical waters to fuel their fury. These violent storms form over the ocean, often beginning as a tropical wave—a low pressure area that moves through the moisture-rich tropics, possibly enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity.
As this weather system moves westward across the tropics, warm ocean air rises into the storm, forming an area of low pressure underneath. This causes more air to rush in. The air then rises and cools, forming clouds and thunderstorms. Up in the clouds, water condenses and forms droplets, releasing even more heat to power the storm. As far as water temperatures go, the usual threshold is a storm won't form in sea surface temperatures less than 80 degrees.
When wind speeds within such a storm reach 74 mph, it’s classified as a hurricane. The terms “hurricane” and “tropical cyclone” refer to the same kind of storm: a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation.
During just one hurricane, raging winds can churn out about half as much energy as the electrical generating capacity of the entire world, while cloud and rain formation from the same storm might release a staggering 400 times that amount.
Whipping up a hurricane calls for a number of ingredients readily available in tropical areas:
- A pre-existing weather disturbance: A hurricane often starts out as a tropical wave.
- Warm water: Water at least 80 degrees over a depth of 50 meters powers the storm.
- Thunderstorm activity: Thunderstorms turn ocean heat into hurricane fuel.
- Low wind shear: A large difference in wind speed and direction around or near the storm can weaken it.
Mix it all together, and you’ve got a hurricane—maybe. Even when all these factors come together, a hurricane doesn’t always develop. Same goes for our surf potential here in Southern California:
- The storm can't be 'hiding' behind Baja California
- And even if the storm moves into our 'swell window' (i.e. away from the shadow of Baja), best case is to have the storm moves towards us and not aimed at Hawaii
- The duration of the storm is important- if the winds blow for 6 hours it won't generate much swell. But if a storm blows for 6 DAYS, look out.
- Size of the storm is important.
- And of course wind speed- stronger the better.
And the moment you've all been waiting for... the Eastern Pacific Hurricane names for 2023!
- Adrian
- Beatriz
- Calvin
- Dora
- Eugene
- Fernanda
- Greg
- Hilary
- Irwin
- Jova
- Kenneth
- Lidia
- Max
- Norma
- Otis
- Pilar
- Ramon
- Selma
- Todd
- Veronica
- Wiley
- Xina
- York
- Zelda
The list of names will re-cycle every six years (the 2023 list will be used again in 2029) UNLESS... a storm is so severe that the World Meteorological Organization's Hurricane Committee votes to retire that name from future lists. And in case you're wondering, as of March 2023, 96 storm names have been retired.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Jeffrey's Bay: The right as to which all other rights are measured.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Adored
Collaborating With Pharrell At LV
Shark Whisperer
Michael W. Glenn
Adored
Collaborating With Pharrell At LV
Shark Whisperer
