THE Surf Report

 

I Wish Every Day Was Summer.

SURF:

Still not the biggest surf this past week BUT WE DID HAVE SURF. Fun combo swell for most of the week, along with warm water and sunny skies, resulted in what we call... summer. For the weekend, our current SW swell will slowly fade while the NW windswell will peak tomorrow. By Sunday, we're back to waist high waves in N County SD. And here are the tides, sun, and water temps for this weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset this weekend:
• 6:06 AM sunrise 
• 7:43 PM sunset 

• Water temps:
• Hot spot of the day today was Oceanside, coming in at comfortable 75 degrees. Most everywhere else in SD and southern OC was low 70's. As mentioned above, we do have NW windswell peaking on Friday, and our water temps may take a slight dip- just giving you a heads up. And in case you're wondering, our water temps usually peak in late August, so we still could be headed towards the mid to high 70's for our water temps. That's if the NW wind behaves the next few weeks.

• And here's the tides for the weekend:
• 0' at sunrise
• 5' at lunch
• down to 1.5' at sunset

FORECAST:

The week starts off slow, then we see a slight bump from soon to be Hurricane Eugene. Models a few days ago showed Eugene being strong but have since backed off on that prediction. Regardless, it could be our first hurricane swell of the season- for SD at least. By Tuesday, look for waist high surf in SD, stomach high surf in northern SD, and hopefully shoulder high surf in the OC. 

As far as the southern hemisphere goes, we had a small storm form off of New Zealand today which will give us more waist high+ SW around the 11th. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter. 

WEATHER:

Tropical weather the past few days has been a real treat around here. Along with the warm water, if you squinted real hard, you could pretend San Diego was Honolulu. For this weekend, high pressure is in control and will keep the tropical clouds away and our air temps up. Next week the high backs off and the monsoon returns. In summary, here’s what we have for the upcoming week:

• Friday to Monday: Mostly sunny. Temps 78/68
• Tuesday through next week: More monsoon weather in the mountains/deserts and AM low clouds along the coast. Temps 75/65

BEST BET:

Tuesday with small Eugene S swell or next weekend with small SW groundswell.

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

Considering this has to be the smallest 6 months I've ever seen around here, researchers have recently published data that shows the surf is actually getting bigger (take that with a grain of salt). I want to believe it of course- so I'll entertain what they have to say. Here's the Associated Press with the rest of the story...

Waves are getting bigger and surf at least 13 feet (about 4 meters) tall is becoming more common off California’s coast as the planet warms, according to innovative new research that tracked the increasing height from historical data gathered over the past 90 years.

Oceanographer Peter Bromirski at Scripps Institution of Oceanography used the unusual method of analyzing seismic records dating back to 1931 to measure the change in wave height.

When waves ricochet off the shore, they collide with incoming waves and cause a ripple of energy through the seafloor that can be picked up by seismographs designed to detect earthquakes. The greater the impact, the taller the wave is.

Bromirski was also surprised to find extended periods of exceptionally low wave heights prior to about 1970 and none of those periods since.

“Erosion, coastal flooding, damage to coastal infrastructure is, you know, something that we’re seeing more frequently than in the past,” Bromirski said. “And, you know, combined with sea level rise, bigger waves mean that is going to happen more often.”

Changes in waves are showing up in other ways, too. “There’s about twice as many big wave events since 1970 as there was prior to 1970,” Bromirski said.

Until now, scientists relied on a network of buoys by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that collect data on wave height along U.S. coasts, but that data along the California coast only went back to 1980.

“Until I stumbled upon this data set, it was almost impossible to make that comparison with any kind of reliability,” Bromirski said.

To go back further, Bromirski gathered a team of undergraduate students to analyze daily seismic readings covering decades of winters. It was a slow, painstaking process that took years and involved digitizing drums of paper records. But he said it was important in learning how things have changed over nearly a century along California’s coast.

They found that average winter wave heights have grown by as much as a foot since 1970, when global warming is believed to have begun accelerating. Swells at least 13 feet tall (about 4 meters) are also happening a lot more often, occurring at least twice as often between 1996 to 2016 than from 1949 to 1969.

The study, published Tuesday in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, adds to the evidence that climate change is causing massive shifts in the world’s oceans. Other studies have shown waves are not only getting taller but also more powerful.

Damage from intense storms and massive surf is already playing out. This winter, California’s severe storms and giant waves collapsed bluffs, damaged piers and flooded parts of the state’s picturesque Highway 1.

Bromirski said that is a harbinger of the future. Scientists say global warming may even be accelerating, ushering in even bigger waves.

As sea levels rise and storms intensify, bigger waves will cause more flooding in coastal communities, erode away beaches, trigger landslides and destabilize remaining bluffs, he said.

These issues are of particular concern along the California coast, where sea cliffs have already started crumbling and brought down homes in recent years. Because of sea level rise, projections at the end of the 21st century indicate even moderate waves might cause damage comparable to that of extreme weather events, according to the study.

Oceanographer Gary Griggs at the University of California Santa Cruz said while a jump of a foot in wave height over more than 50 years is not huge, the findings are consistent with what scientists know is happening to the world’s oceans as they warm: They are becoming increasingly violent due to more extreme storms and wreaking havoc along coasts.

Griggs, who was not involved in the research, said it adds to growing scientific data showing how fast the world is warming and how quickly seas are rising.

“We know hurricanes are more intense and last longer, and now we’ve got, you know, waves increasing in power. So those are all consistent,” he said. “The challenge ... is sort of how to really respond to that.”

PIC OF THE WEEK:

 

Waves for everyone! Everyone that can afford a boat trip or a luxury resort that is. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Newsworthy
Let Bezos Borrow My Yacht For His Engagement Party
Father of Modern Surfing