Trust Your Instincts
SURF:
Still not the biggest surf this past week but we did have a touch of tropical swell from Eugene. A sign of things to come? (More on that below). At least the waves, water, and weather cooperated; fun times all around.
For the weekend, we have new small SW on the rise for chest high sets. That should last through Sunday. Along with warm water and manageable winds, it's going to be a good weekend. And here are the tides, sun, and water temps for this weekend:
- Sunrise and sunset this weekend:
- 6:10 AM sunrise
- 7:37 PM sunset
- Water temps:
- We've been sitting around 73 degrees all week with a high of 75 last Monday. Our peak water temps usually occur around the end of August AND we're in the middle of El Nino, so further warming of a couple degrees should occur...
- And here's the tides for the weekend:
- 3' at sunrise
- 4' mid-morning
- 2.5' after lunch
- and 6' at sunset
FORECAST:
As you've seen the past decade, it's all or nothing around here. Whether it's a ton of rain all at once, or a massive NW swell- then nothing for months- I have this gut feeling we're due for a big swell soon. As you've seen this summer, we've had no big storms in the southern hemisphere (sorry Wedge) and every forecasted hurricane swell has fizzled. Something has to change, right?
On that note, models today show a mid-sized storm off Antarctica which will give us chest high+ SW around the 18th with bigger sets in the OC.
Forecast charts show hurricane activity forming next week- which they've done all summer- but nothing has materialized. But something has to give- and we're headed towards peak hurricane season- so I'm betting on this one. If anything materializes, we could see good hurricane surf around the 23rd. Everyone think positive and let's break the curse! If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter.
WEATHER:
Looks like the tropical clouds will vanish in the coming days and we'll be left with low clouds in the AM and sunshine by mid-day. In summary, here’s what we have for the upcoming week:
- Friday through most of next week: Mostly sunny skies and temps 75/65.
BEST BET:
Looks like steadily increasing swells: This weekend from the SW, slightly better S swell on the 18th, and MAYBE real hurricane surf by the 23rd.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
My alma mater San Diego State University may be know for a lot of things (i.e. parties, its recent run in March Madness, Tony Gwynn, Gregory Peck, and parties), but recent studies from the university have concluded that climate change is impacting the ocean's top fish predators. And not in a good way.
New research published in Science Advances shows climate change is causing widespread habitat loss for some of the ocean’s top fish predators, driving these species northward. The shift is expected to significantly impact the food web, fisheries and coastal communities.
“Climate change is expected to cause the status quo for where these species are and how they live to fundamentally change,” said lead author Camrin Braun, an assistant scientist and marine ecologist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI).
The research was led by WHOI, with collaboration from San Diego State University, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and several other U.S. institutions.
The researchers studied 12 large fish species — including several types of sharks, tuna and billfish — inhabiting the waters of the Northwest Atlantic coast from Haiti to the Maritime provinces of Canada, as well as the Gulf of Mexico, areas undergoing rapid changes in sea surface temperatures.
These species spend a lot of time traveling — sometimes across entire ocean basins,” said SDSU biologist and conservation ecologist Rebecca Lewison. “They play important ecological roles in regulating other species, in changing the abundance of other species.”
The study modeled two types of shifts in the fishes’ habitat due to climate change: shifts that have already occurred and predicted future habitat shifts based on climate models. Satellite data from NASA plays an important role in tracking these shifts .
Sea surface temperatures are expected to rise by 1-10 degrees F by 2100, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
“Certain species are very sensitive to changes in ocean temperature,” said Lewison. “What that often means is that a part of the ocean that was one temperature has now shifted consistently to another, and that's how fish lose habitat.”
The study revealed that suitable habitat for most of the species studied — including yellowfin tuna, shortfin mako sharks and white marlin, among others — is expected to decrease in the coming years. Some species could lose up to 70% of their habitat. But the habitat of a few species, like blue marlin, is actually expected to expand somewhat over time.
Some species may be more adaptable than others, according to Lewison. However, the habitats of all of the species in the study show a significant northward shift in habitat, to cooler waters.
“Ocean temperatures off of Florida hit all-time highs recently,” said Lewison. “These highly migratory species do not want to be in that water.”
The northward shift could spell problems for the fisheries that depend on these species for their livelihoods.
“Fishermen are noticing that there are shifts, that there are changes,” said Lewison. “They're noticing in certain places they have to travel farther to the fishing grounds, and that a lot of these warming episodes are really having a big impact.” The changes could mean some vessels out of certain ports may lose access to certain species, causing fisheries and fishing communities to suffer, she added.
Lewison said the research team was careful to ensure that the work resonated with the fishing community and the data they collected were representative and accurate.
Historically, strategies for managing fish have been static. But it’s important to treat marine systems as dynamic and changing, and in some places that change is happening faster than expected, said Lewison. The good news is that this study and others like it are providing the scientific data needed for marine conservation and fisheries management efforts.
“Dynamic ocean management is a new approach that a lot of management agencies — both in the US and overseas — have been embracing,” she said. “When we think about climate change, it’s easy to think about changes that are coming in the future. One of the important things about our research is that it demonstrates that climate change is here now. We are already dealing with it both on land and in the oceans. And there is so much data and science we can use to support climate readiness and climate resilience.”
New research published in Science Advances shows climate change is causing widespread habitat loss for some of the ocean’s top fish predators, driving these species northward. The shift is expected to significantly impact the food web, fisheries and coastal communities.
“Climate change is expected to cause the status quo for where these species are and how they live to fundamentally change,” said lead author Camrin Braun, an assistant scientist and marine ecologist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI).
The research was led by WHOI, with collaboration from San Diego State University, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and several other U.S. institutions.
The researchers studied 12 large fish species — including several types of sharks, tuna and billfish — inhabiting the waters of the Northwest Atlantic coast from Haiti to the Maritime provinces of Canada, as well as the Gulf of Mexico, areas undergoing rapid changes in sea surface temperatures.
These species spend a lot of time traveling — sometimes across entire ocean basins,” said SDSU biologist and conservation ecologist Rebecca Lewison. “They play important ecological roles in regulating other species, in changing the abundance of other species.”
The study modeled two types of shifts in the fishes’ habitat due to climate change: shifts that have already occurred and predicted future habitat shifts based on climate models. Satellite data from NASA plays an important role in tracking these shifts .
Sea surface temperatures are expected to rise by 1-10 degrees F by 2100, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
“Certain species are very sensitive to changes in ocean temperature,” said Lewison. “What that often means is that a part of the ocean that was one temperature has now shifted consistently to another, and that's how fish lose habitat.”
The study revealed that suitable habitat for most of the species studied — including yellowfin tuna, shortfin mako sharks and white marlin, among others — is expected to decrease in the coming years. Some species could lose up to 70% of their habitat. But the habitat of a few species, like blue marlin, is actually expected to expand somewhat over time.
Some species may be more adaptable than others, according to Lewison. However, the habitats of all of the species in the study show a significant northward shift in habitat, to cooler waters.
“Ocean temperatures off of Florida hit all-time highs recently,” said Lewison. “These highly migratory species do not want to be in that water.”
The northward shift could spell problems for the fisheries that depend on these species for their livelihoods.
“Fishermen are noticing that there are shifts, that there are changes,” said Lewison. “They're noticing in certain places they have to travel farther to the fishing grounds, and that a lot of these warming episodes are really having a big impact.” The changes could mean some vessels out of certain ports may lose access to certain species, causing fisheries and fishing communities to suffer, she added.
Lewison said the research team was careful to ensure that the work resonated with the fishing community and the data they collected were representative and accurate.
Historically, strategies for managing fish have been static. But it’s important to treat marine systems as dynamic and changing, and in some places that change is happening faster than expected, said Lewison. The good news is that this study and others like it are providing the scientific data needed for marine conservation and fisheries management efforts.
“Dynamic ocean management is a new approach that a lot of management agencies — both in the US and overseas — have been embracing,” she said. “When we think about climate change, it’s easy to think about changes that are coming in the future. One of the important things about our research is that it demonstrates that climate change is here now. We are already dealing with it both on land and in the oceans. And there is so much data and science we can use to support climate readiness and climate resilience.”
BEST OF THE BLOG:
PIC OF THE WEEK:
It's official! I've finally opened the first surf camp on Mars! No one's going to be there until Bezos, Branson, and Musk figure out that whole space tourism thing- but with a left like this all to myself- I can wait.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Buzz-worthy
Cruise Ship Entertainer
On That New Malibu Saltwater Diet
Michael W. Glenn
Buzz-worthy
Cruise Ship Entertainer
On That New Malibu Saltwater Diet
