Aleutians vs. Antarctica
SURF:
Wasn't that a good time last weekend. I actually forgot how to surf overhead waves. Dodged a few sets, took a few on the head, finally got into a rhythm, and then it was like riding a bike again- if you were going downhill really fast. The surf is a bit tamer today but we have fun waves from the southern hemisphere showing up later tomorrow into Sunday.
A pair of good late season storms formed last week and should give us chest high surf from the SW this weekend with better waves towards the OC. Models also show NW windswell from the outer waters filling in Saturday evening into early Sunday morning- so best combo spots could be shoulder high. Also of note, we could see a Santa Ana conditions on Sunday (which will kill the NW windswell) so get on it early! And here are the tides, sun, and water temps for this weekend:
- Sunrise and sunset this weekend:
- 7:03 AM sunrise
- 6:02 PM sunset
- Water temps:
- Around 65-67
- Big tide swings this weekend:
- about 4' at sunrise
- 6.5' just after 9 AM
- about -0.7' around 4 PM
- and back up to 1' at sunset
FORECAST:
Monday holds with some chest high sets from the SW towards the OC, then we get a reinforcement from Antarctica again on Tuesday. It most likely won't be as big as Saturday's combo swell, but we still could see chest high sets from the SW into Wednesday.
After that, the Aleutians come to life later in the week and I'm hoping to see fun to good WNW swell by Sunday the 5th and into the following week. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter.
WEATHER:
Nice weather Friday/Saturday (after the low clouds burn off)- then a warm up next week with Santa Ana winds possibly. Here's what we have on tap:
- Friday/Saturday: More patchy fog and afternoon sun. Temps 67/60
- Sunday: Santa Anas kick in. Sunny skies and temps 70/55.
- Monday through Wedensday at least: More sun and low humidity. Temps 75/60.
- Will high pressure weaken slightly next weekend? Who knows. But most likely no rain yet.
BEST BET:
- Saturday with fun SW and nice weather.
- Early Sunday with combo swell and offshore winds.
- Even late next weekend once the NW swells kick back in!
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
As you know, Southern California had a less than stellar hurricane season due to the persistent NW winds blowing off our coast, resulting in a cold water 'barrier' blocking storms from reaching our swell window. But that doesn't mean the Pacific wasn't active when it came to cyclones. On the contrary- another category 3 or stronger hurricane this season would match a record for major hurricanes in the eastern Pacific. As evident by Major Hurricane Otis this week devastating Acapulco, we can't get to winter fast enough. Here's the San Francisco Chronicle explaining how El Niño continues to fuel an intense Pacific hurricane season:
Hurricane Otis made landfall in Mexico on Tuesday night, rapidly intensifying to a category 5 hurricane, the strongest Pacific Ocean hurricane to make landfall in Mexico in modern history. Otis was the eighth major hurricane in the East Pacific in 2023. Another category 3 or stronger hurricane this season would match a record for major hurricanes in the eastern Pacific. Scientists say warmer than normal ocean temperatures — due to El Niño conditions and human-caused climate change — have fueled the region’s active hurricane season.
Hurricane Otis made landfall in Mexico on Tuesday night, rapidly intensifying to a category 5 hurricane, the strongest Pacific Ocean hurricane to make landfall in Mexico in modern history. Otis was the eighth major hurricane in the East Pacific in 2023. Another category 3 or stronger hurricane this season would match a record for major hurricanes in the eastern Pacific. Scientists say warmer than normal ocean temperatures — due to El Niño conditions and human-caused climate change — have fueled the region’s active hurricane season.
Matthew Rosencrans, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s lead for this year’s seasonal hurricane outlook, says atmospheric and oceanic conditions are primed for hurricane development and growth in the eastern Pacific Ocean this year. “Along 10 to 15 degrees north, where these (hurricanes) have formed in the east Pacific, wind shear has been quite low,” Rosencrans said. “And that’s a traditional El Niño response.” Wind shear, which describes how winds change speed and direction in the atmosphere, is the kryptonite for hurricanes. Strong winds in the upper atmosphere rip apart the hurricane’s eye and prevent it from strengthening. The Pacific hurricane season, which runs from May 15 to Nov. 30, averages eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes. According to the Climate Prediction Center, Otis was the 10th east Pacific hurricane this season.
Rosencrans says ocean temperatures have also been above normal this year. Hurricanes, which are fueled by tropical ocean temperatures in the 80s and 90s, are more likely to rapidly intensify as they encounter pockets of above-normal water temperatures. “El Niño changes the sea-surface temperatures,” Rosencrans said. “When I look at sea-surface temperature plots now in the last month, there’s only a small area of below normal sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, but everywhere near the coastline is now above normal.”
A 2013 study found that of the top 25 Mexican Pacific landfall events, 10 occurred during El Niño conditions, compared with just five during La Niña. In June and July, sea-surface temperatures off the west coast off Baja California were 1 to 1.5 degrees below normal, but temperatures have spiked since. In August, warm sea-surface temperatures aided Hurricane Hilary in maintaining hurricane strength within 200 miles of Southern California before weakening to a tropical storm. Hilary prompted the first-ever National Weather Service tropical storm hazards along the U.S. West Coast.
The active east Pacific hurricane season, including the unusual behavior of Hilary’s track and Otis’ strength, are realizations of what scientists have observed and projected due to the impacts of human-caused climate change. According to Susana Camargo, a professor at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, a research institute in New York, Otis’ activity was in line with predicted hurricane behavior due to climate change: stronger hurricanes that intensify faster. “All of the characteristics of Otis fit that picture,” Camargo said.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
When I win the lottery, I'm going to sail around the world and discover new surf spots! But first- I need to learn how to sail. And the open ocean seems a bit terrifying. And that whole scurvy thing is a bit of a deterrent. Guess I'll save my money instead and just stick to Beacons and Fish 101.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Deluxe
My Life Is A Rom-Com
Pioneered The Short John & Booties Look
Michael W. Glenn
Deluxe
My Life Is A Rom-Com
Pioneered The Short John & Booties Look
