Change Is In The Air.
SURF:
So good to see swell this past week. I forgive you Winter/Spring/Summer 2023.
As you probably know, solid WNW filled in today and most spots were overhead in northern SD with southern SD seeing 10' faces. And for you Maverick's fans out there, the iconic big wave spot had some 25'+ surf. For Friday, the WNW peaks early but we'll still see solid surf as it winds down through the day.
On it's heels is a good SW filling in Saturday for shoulder high sets that lasts into Sunday. All in all, lots of good surf this weekend. And here are the tides, sun, and water temps for this weekend:
- Sunrise and sunset this weekend:
- 6:58 AM sunrise
- 6:08 PM sunset
- Water temps:
- Hovering in the mid-60's.
- Odd tides this weekend- kind of wonky:
- about 3' at sunrise
- then 5' at 2pm on Saturday and 5' at 4pm Sunday.
- and down to 3' at sunset on Saturday and 4' at sunset Sunday.
FORECAST:
The Pacific is alive and that's good news for us. After the good combo swell this weekend, the weather turns iffy on Monday which gives us a shot of chest high NW wind/groundswell to go along with leftover smaller SW groundswell.
After that, we have more SW groundswell headed our way for shoulder high sets in far N SD County and SD on Wednesday and then again Friday. Looks like we'll have small NW windswell too during the week to break up the southern lines.
And behind that, the N Pacific looks to be on hiatus but we could see more activity off Antarctica and the Aleutians by the first week of November. On a side note, Major Hurricane Norma sits due S of Cabo today and will move up into the Gulf of California early next week, effectively barring us from any surf. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to click on the link below and follow North County Surf on Twitter.
WEATHER:
No major weather changes in the near future, but we most likely will be stuck with fall type weather in the short term along the coast. Here's what we have on tap:
- Friday: More patchy fog and late afternoon sun. Temps 72/64.
- Saturday/Sunday: Low clouds in the AM/PM and partly sunny in the afternoons. Temps 69/65.
- Monday: Weak low pressure with a chance of drizzle/light showers. Temps 65/69.
- Most of next week is a toss up- some models show another weak low pressure, others show high pressure...
BEST BET:
This weekend with good combo swell or later next week with smaller but still good SW groundswell/NW windswell.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
THE Surf Report has talked a lot about El Nino and La Nina over the years- and rightfully so- it can make our surf feast or famine. In their simplest forms, La Nina in Southern California will give us drier weather, smaller surf, and colder water temps while it's counterpart El Nino will give us more rain, bigger surf, and warmer water temps. But as you know, predicting the future is tough as my history with the lottery will attest. We recently had a La Nina that was above average rain (and a 3 year La Nina event no less which is unheard of) and this year's El Nino looks to be a 'strong' event- but is it being influenced by the historically warm water temps across the globe? Let's break down each one. First up, our multi year La Nina:
Multiyear La Niña events have become more common over the last 100 years, according to a new study led by University of Hawai'i (UH) at Manoa atmospheric scientist Bin Wang. Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted more than one year, including an unprecedented triple-year event. The study was published this week in Nature Climate Change. "The clustering of multiyear La Niña events is phenomenal given that only ten such events have occurred since 1920," said Wang, emeritus professor of atmospheric sciences in the UH Manoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology.
El Niño and La Niña, the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific, affect weather and ocean conditions, which can, in turn, influence the marine environment and fishing industry in Hawai'i and throughout the Pacific Ocean. Long-lasting La Niñas could cause persistent climate extremes and devastating weather events, affecting community resilience, tourist industry and agriculture. Determining why so many multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more common has sparked worldwide discussion among climate scientists, yet answers remain elusive.
Wang and co-authors examined 20 La Niña events from 1920-2022 to investigate the fundamental reasons behind the historic change of the multiyear La Niña. Some long-lasting La Niñas occurred after a super El Niño, which the researchers expected due to the massive discharge of heat from the upper-ocean following an El Niño. However, three recent multiyear La Niña episodes (2007-08, 2010-11, and 2020-22) did not follow this pattern.
Multiyear La Niña events have become more common over the last 100 years, according to a new study led by University of Hawai'i (UH) at Manoa atmospheric scientist Bin Wang. Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted more than one year, including an unprecedented triple-year event. The study was published this week in Nature Climate Change. "The clustering of multiyear La Niña events is phenomenal given that only ten such events have occurred since 1920," said Wang, emeritus professor of atmospheric sciences in the UH Manoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology.
El Niño and La Niña, the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific, affect weather and ocean conditions, which can, in turn, influence the marine environment and fishing industry in Hawai'i and throughout the Pacific Ocean. Long-lasting La Niñas could cause persistent climate extremes and devastating weather events, affecting community resilience, tourist industry and agriculture. Determining why so many multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more common has sparked worldwide discussion among climate scientists, yet answers remain elusive.
Wang and co-authors examined 20 La Niña events from 1920-2022 to investigate the fundamental reasons behind the historic change of the multiyear La Niña. Some long-lasting La Niñas occurred after a super El Niño, which the researchers expected due to the massive discharge of heat from the upper-ocean following an El Niño. However, three recent multiyear La Niña episodes (2007-08, 2010-11, and 2020-22) did not follow this pattern.
They discovered these events are fueled by warming in the western Pacific Ocean and steep gradients in sea surface temperature from the western to central Pacific. "Warming in the western Pacific triggers the rapid onset and persistence of these events," said Wang. "Additionally, our study revealed that multiyear La Niña are distinguished from single-year La Niña by a conspicuous onset rate, which foretells its accumulative intensity and climate impacts."
Results from complex computer simulations of climate support the observed link between multiyear La Niña events and western Pacific warming. The new findings shed light on the factors conducive to escalating extreme La Niña in a future warming world. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse impacts on communities around the globe, if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central Pacific.
"Our perception moves beyond the current notion that links extreme El Niño and La Niña to the eastern Pacific warming and attributes the increasing extreme El Niño and La Niña to different sources," Wang added. "The knowledge gained from our study offers emergent constraints to reduce the uncertainties in projecting future changes of extreme La Niña, which may help us better prepare for what lies ahead."
On the flip side, our current El Nino had cooler than average water temps along the southern California coast due to persistent N winds this year, and all models point to a strong event- but just how strong? Let's have NOAA explain:
El Niño is currently chugging along in the tropical Pacific. Forecasters expect El Niño will continue through the spring, with a 75-85% chance it will become a strong event. A stronger El Niño—definition to follow shortly—means it is more likely that we will see El Niño’s expected thumbprint on winter temperature and rain/snow patterns around the world.
First, the numbers. Our primary metric for the growth of El Niño is the temperature of the ocean surface in the Niño-3.4 region, a box in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. Specifically, the anomaly, the difference of this temperature from the long-term average (long-term = 1991–2020). (Why here? Several decades ago, this region was found to have the strongest relationship with tropical atmospheric changes.) In September, the Niño-3.4 Index was 1.6 °C (2.9 °F), according to the ERSSTv5, our most reliable sea surface temperature dataset.
El Niño is a coupled system, meaning the ocean and the tropical atmosphere are working together to continue and grow the El Niño event. The average air circulation pattern over the tropical Pacific, called the Walker circulation, brings rising air, clouds, and storms over the very warm water of the far western Pacific, west-to-east winds high up in the atmosphere, descending air over the eastern Pacific, and the east-to-west surface winds called the trade winds. In the case of El Niño, the warmer-than-average surface water in the central-eastern Pacific leads to more rising air over that region, weakening the Walker circulation.
The atmospheric half of El Niño is clearly showing its stripes. All the signs of a weakened Walker circulation are present, including more rain and clouds over the central-eastern Pacific, slower trade winds and upper-level winds, and drier conditions in Indonesia and the far western Pacific. Taken collectively, the ocean surface and the atmospheric conditions tell us that El Niño will stick around for the next few months at least.
Since we’re sure El Niño will be operating into the winter, the next question is “how strong will it get?” Strength definitions, which usually also use the Niño-3.4 Index, are unofficial, since it’s not like an El Niño with a peak Niño-3.4 Index of 1.5 °C is going to have noticeably different impacts than one with a peak Niño-3.4 Index of 1.4 °C. However, as I mentioned above, the stronger the El Niño, the more likely it will affect global temperature and rain/snow patterns in expected ways. This is because a larger sea surface temperature change leads to a larger shift in the Walker circulation, making it more likely that El Niño will affect the jet stream and cause a cascade of global impacts.
The unofficial definition of a strong El Niño is a peak 3-month-average Niño-3.4 Index of at least 1.5 °C. El Niño is a seasonal phenomenon, and that 3-month-average Niño-3.4 Index (called the Oceanic Niño Index or ONI) is important for making sure that the oceanic and atmospheric changes persist long enough to affect global weather and climate. A peak ONI of 2.0 °C or more is considered “historically strong,” or “very strong.” We’ve only seen four of these in our historical record, dating back to 1950.
Forecasters give this event a high chance of qualifying as a strong event, based on our climate model predictions and the current conditions. “Hey wait,” you’re saying. “Isn’t the September Niño-3.4 Index already 1.6 °C?” And indeed it is, but the 3-month-average for July–September was 1.3 °C. That said, we have a 75% chance that the ONI will reach or exceed 1.5 °C in November–January (typically the peak season). We actually have a slightly higher chance, 83%, that we will reach that threshold in September-November, which is on our doorstep.
So how about peaking at or above 2.0 °C? Forecasters give that around a 3-in-10 chance for November–January. The climate models have a fairly wide range of potential outcomes—if they were concentrated above 2.0 °C, we’d probably be able to give more confident chances. Also, while there is still a good amount of heat under the surface of the Pacific—this warmer water provides a source to the surface—it’s not quite at the level we’ve see during previous historically strong El Niños like 1982–83, 1997–98, or 2015–16. This is a small sample of very strong events, though, and the current moderate subsurface temperature certainly doesn’t preclude this event peaking above 2.0 °C. It just contributes to a tempering of the odds.
One more thing- the temperature of the global oceans is still running way above average, with startling records in recent months. Whenever we see something really extraordinary, like the recent records, we want to be sure it’s not a data error. Checking two different datasets provides confirmation that this is a real feature. The extreme warmth in the global oceans means this El Niño is operating in a different world than earlier El Niño events. For example, the Atlantic hurricane season is often on the quieter side overall during El Niño, but this year has already seen an active season, with 18 named storms, as the very warm North Atlantic Ocean has provided lots of fuel.
BEST OF THE BLOG:
If you're an old timer in North County, you probably remember the Longboard Grotto in Leucadia and all the quirky items they sold. The building has since been brought up to code and changed hands a few times, but now it's a great collection of businesses called Coffee Coffee, Bing Surfboards, and the site of our next North County Board Meeting business mixer... Duck Foot Brewing! Longboard Grotto may be gone, but the quirkiness still lives in Duck Foot. If one word was to describe them, it would have to be... random? That word encompasses their brewing style, humor, and design style; you’ll get a sense of that when you see their beer names and cans. And if you haven't been to one of the NCBM Biz Mixers, it's a great way to connect our community to a local surf run company. Sponsored by our friends at Surfhouse, come on down Tuesday evening, October 24th at 6pm to hear Duck Foot's story, grab a drink, network, and have a bite. And as always with our October events, in the spirt of Halloween, wear your oddest/coolest/funkiest t-shirt and you may just walk away with a valuable prize (valuable being a loose term). Thanks for the support and hit up northcountyboardmeeting@gmail.com with any questions!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
This is what my dreams look like. For more shots of inspiration, check out Nathan Lawerence's work here.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Agent Of Change
Tired Of Signing Autographs
Malibu AM, Bear Mountain PM
Michael W. Glenn
Agent Of Change
Tired Of Signing Autographs
Malibu AM, Bear Mountain PM
