THE Surf Report

 

Calling El Nino.

SURF:

Don't get me wrong- this weather has been fantastic and the even though the surf has been small, it's been rideable- but let's be honest- I'm here for the El Nino. For Friday- and most of the weekend- surf will be on the small side- maybe waist high+ from the SW/NW. Good news is that the weather will be great again this weekend though. 

We also have soon to be Hurricane Lidia SE of Cabo tonight- and it may hit our swell window tomorrow- but it's fairly small and I think it's just going to blend in with the other small SW/NW this weekend. And here are the tides, sun, and water temps for this weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset this weekend:
• 6:48 AM sunrise 
• 6:24 PM sunset 

• Water temps:
• Temps are still nice- high 60's in SD and mid-60's in LA

• And not much for tides this weekend:
• about 4' at sunrise
• down slightly to 3' midday
• and up to 4.5' late afternoon

FORECAST:

Not sure if it's due to El Nino or not, but I may have to turn on the Emergency Broadcasting System next week. 

First up is a fun SW filling in on Tuesday with reinforcements on Thursday. Most spots look to be chest high+. 

Also joining the party is a good NW filling in Tuesday and holding into Thursday. Look for chest high waves in N county SD and shoulder high surf in SD. Best combo spots will be shoulder high. 

Further out, models show the southern hemisphere coming to life this weekend- 6 months late- but I'll take it. We could see a good SW towards the 18th and larger surf towards the 20th (hoping it will be head high+). 

And we may have a solid storm in the Aleutians towards the end of the month- but I'm hoping it doesn't get pushed up towards British Columbia. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter.

WEATHER:

Typical 'Santa Ana' conditions for the near future- low pressures moving by to the N and high pressure setting up behind it. As was the case of the early season storm for the Sierras/Rockies last week; high pressure set up behind it and we got dry/warm Santa Ana conditions today. For next week, another weak cold front will move by to the N of us, drizzle down here mid-week, then more sunny/warm conditions next weekend. Here's what we have on tap:

• Friday through Monday: Sun sun sun. Highs in the low 80's and lows in the low 60's.
• Tuesday through Thursday: A return of low clouds and mild temps. Temps 70/60.
• Next weekend? Most likely more sun and warm temps again.

BEST BET:

Mid-week with combo swells or wait until the 18-20th timeframe for bigger SW. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

The 2022-2023 'water' year has officially come to a close. The water year is not based on a calendar year as it aims to better capture when our storm season happens- the winter season. So the water year runs October 1st (just about the time our first storms form for winter) and runs until the following year on September 30th to capture any monsoonal moisture. This water year as you know was a doozy- even though La Nina was in control- normally dry conditions for southern California which never happened fortunately. Our official rain totals happened to be:

KBPS reported this week: San Diego’s water year will be recorded as the 14th wettest year on record for the city. A recorded 15.72 inches of rain fell at the San Diego Airport over the past 12 months. The weather station there typically sees about 9.5 inches a year. It was the wettest year ever on Palomar Mountain. Rainfall there totaled 69.24 inches. Oceanside had the second-wettest year ever, at 23.47 inches, and Vista recorded 25.05 inches of rain — making it the North County city’s fourth-wettest year on record. In the East County, Ramona’s rainfall total of 25.39 inches lands as the city’s eighth-wettest year on record.

One major reason was 13 atmospheric rivers that drenched the region over the winter.“There was only a couple of days of break between each rainfall,” said Alex Tardy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in San Diego. “Each storm lasted two or three days, with the majority of the rain occurring in one day or less.”

Rainfall totals also got a boost when Tropical Storm Hilary rolled through the region in August. That storm, which reached category 5 hurricane status before weakening and reaching San Diego as a tropical storm, dropped about 2 inches of rain at the airport. Some mountain regions in San Diego County got over 6 inches of precipitation in just one day.

All of that rainfall has been good news for a region suffering through two punishing droughts in the past decade. In fact, the U.S. Drought Monitor is showing something not seen very often recently: More than 90% percent of California is drought-free. But drought watchers say this is probably not the beginning of a long-term trend if recents years reflect what is to come. “So the last 20 years have been more drought-prone than any of the 20-year periods since 1895,” said Richard Heim, an author with the U.S. Drought Monitor. Droughts have been longer and more intense recently, something climate watchers attribute to climate change.

But some think that a building El Niño could be a source for storms this coming winter. “In terms of impacts, if it’s a really strong El Niño and you get a lot of heavy rain, well, just witness what happened this past winter,” Heim said. “How much flooding did California have? Too much rain, too fast, in a limited area can cause some significant flooding.” Predicting what will happen next year is difficult. Forecasters say the warming Pacific Ocean could bring intense storms as in 1997 or drought as in 2015.

BEST OF THE BLOG:

If you're an old timer in North County, you probably remember the Longboard Grotto in Leucadia and all the quirky items they sold. The building has since been brought up to code and changed hands a few times, but now it's a great collection of businesses called Coffee Coffee, Bing Surfboards, and the site of our next North County Board Meeting business mixer... Duck Foot Brewing! Longboard Grotto may be gone, but the quirkiness still lives in Duck Foot. If one word was to describe them, it would have to be... random? That word encompasses their brewing style, humor, and design style; you’ll get a sense of that when you see their beer names and cans. And if you haven't been to one of the NCBM Biz Mixers, it's a great way to connect our community to a local surf run company. Sponsored by our friends at Surfhouse, come on down Tuesday evening, October 24th at 6pm to hear Duck Foot's story, grab a drink, network, and have a bite. And as always with our October events, in the spirt of Halloween, wear your oddest/coolest/funkiest t-shirt and you may just walk away with a valuable prize (valuable being a loose term). Thanks for the support and hit up northcountyboardmeeting@gmail.com with any questions! 

PIC OF THE WEEK:

With the impending El Nino, I thought it was time to do a quick refresher course if you were thinking of paddling out at Mavericks this winter:

1. It's sharky.
2. Friend to friend here- you're not ready. Seriously.
3. There's only 1 Peter Mel and you're not him. 
4. If you DO happen to mistakenly paddle out, don't be this guy.
5. See 1-4 above. 

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Idealist
Speaker Of My House
Accomplished Small Wave Surfer