THE Surf Report

 

SURF:

Heard about the big surf today? If you didn't, it's probably a good thing- you didn't fight the crowds, break a board, or get held under for 10 waves. And if you did hear about, hopefully you scored. 

What a day of surf. Not much was showing this morning in Southern CA, but the Central coast sure did. One buoy in particular this morning north of San Fran hit 29' at 20 seconds which translates to 60' Mavericks. And as that swell marched down the coast today, we had our share of bombs from Ventura to SD. The Torrey Pines buoy peaked at 10' at 20 seconds this evening which resulted in 20' bombs at Blacks. For Friday, the W swell will be on it's way down, but there will still be plenty of juice out there- so be careful. 

And for Saturday? Well, it's an El Nino year- so we have more big surf coming- most likely the same size as today. We do though have a cold front coming through on Saturday, so you might catch a clean window early of SE wind but by mid-morning it should be blowing pretty good out of the WNW- so get on it early- if you've got a big enough board. By Sunday, the swell will be rapidly dropping but there will be enough big sets to keep you on your toes. And here’s the sun, tides, and water temps for the upcoming weekend:

• Sunrise and sunset:
• 6:51 AM sunrise
• 4:53 PM sunset

• Water temps are still low 60's- pleasant for winter.

• Tides are starting to mellow out:
• about 4' at sunrise
• 5' before lunch
• and down to 0' at sunset

FORECAST:

Looks like the massive surf is on it's way out for the near future BUT... we have plenty of good surf on the charts. 

New shoulder high+ WNW arrives Tuesday the 2nd then more overhead NW may arrive late next week.

We may also get the tail end of storms next week- just showers- but winds may not be ideal. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter!

WEATHER:

So far this El Nino has given us great surf and the rains haven't been problematic. So for our waves & weather this weekend and beyond? Looks like good surf again and just off and on showers. Here's what we have on tap for at least the next 7 days:

• Friday: Mostly sunny. Temps 65/50
• Saturday through next week: Showers every other day (and potentially New Years Day). Temps 62/45.

BEST BET:

• Where do I start? 
• Friday with solid surf again- hopefully a touch smaller so it's manageable.
• Saturday: Big again. Know your limits!
• Sunday/Monday: Good surf and hopefully manageable.
• New swell Tueday and fun- but showers?
• Late next week with head high/overhead surf- but showers?

NEWS OF THE WEEK:

AI is all the rage when it comes to the future- including weather forecasting.  But sometimes you can't replace the good ol' fashioned hands on approach, like flying a plane into the eye of the storm. That's why the Scripps Institute is partnering with the Air Force this winter- to go storm chasing in the sky. Here's the Times of San Diego to explain:

San Diego, like the rest of California, was deluged by multiple atmospheric river weather events over the 2022-2023 rainy season, which both considerably eased the state’s drought and created new types of weather hazards. As the climate changes, so too do ways to predict and monitor the weather. To that end, the Scripps Institution of Oceanography’s Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (W3E) is leading the Atmospheric River Reconnaissance program with “Hurricane Hunter” aircraft from the U.S. Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and NOAA. 

The research will be invaluable for tracking future weather models in a rapidly changing climate, said Dr. Anna Wilson, W3E’s field research manager. “With all this data we can improve our understanding of the physical processes and represent them better.” This has immediate ramifications for the region, Wilson said, which was built for conditions that are either rapidly changing or no longer exist. “Our existing infrastructure was built a long time ago with the setup of the natural reservoir that is the snowpack, and we don’t have that any more to count on,” she said.

This year, California’s snowpack is one of the largest ever, following years of drought — an example of the “climate whiplash” expected in increasingly extreme weather conditions. The joint program aims to collect data on atmospheric rivers, which occur when winds over the Pacific Ocean push moisture-rich warm air toward the West Coast. When it is pushed upward into cooler air, the resulting condensation can cause dramatic amounts of rain or snow to fall – on average, 25 times the flow of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

These rivers of moisture can rapidly turn around drought conditions, but they also carry with them risks of extreme flooding, which is only expected to become more pronounced with more extreme climate change. 
The details collected with this program will help prepare future climate models, said Dr. Marty Ralph, UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography meteorologist and founding director of CW3E.  “If you want to predict where a car is going to be five minutes from now you need to know where it’s starting from and how fast it’s moving,” Ralph said. 

“Similarly, if there is an atmospheric river out near Hawaii, and we want to forecast where it will hit the California coast a few days later and how strong it is, we need to get out there and take direct measurements.” The car analogy works for more dimensions than just location and speed, said Anna Wilson. “Where’s that car now? How big is it, how fast is it driving — that kind of stuff,” she said. 
AR Recon plans to expand further west across the Pacific, running test flight operations from Guam for a two-week period this year.

PIC OF THE WEEK:

On a normal day, I'd do anything to surf this wave. But since it was all-time around here today, this looks just... blah. (Ok, that's an exaggeration, but it has been pretty darn good in So-Cal lately).

Keep Surfing, 
Michael W. Glenn
Opulent
Still Have A Kiss Poster On My Bedroom Wall
My New Year's Resolution Is To Surf 8 Days A Week