From Sizzle To Fizzle
SURF:
Let me be the first to say- this has been a pretty good El Nino winter. A couple monster swells in January, windows of great weather between storms, and lots of fun shoulder to head high groundswells every few weeks. Compared to last winter where we started off the same (a couple monster swells early) which was follow up by endless days of waist high surf for 9 months. All good things must come to an end though (details below in NEWS OF THE WEEK)- but before they do- let's go out with a bang.
New fun WNW will fill in tonight for chest high waves tomorrow (shoulder high in SD) and that drops slightly on Saturday. Today, Hawaii is getting bombarded by a solid W swell that will arrive here Sunday morning for well overhead sets in N County SD and double overhead+ in SD. Weather should cooperate too. And here’s the sun, tides, and water temps for the upcoming weekend:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 6:30 AM sunrise
- 5:36 PM sunset
- Water temps are high 60's
- And not much in the way of tides this weekend:
- about 3' at sunrise
- about 0' late morning
- and up to 2.5' at sunset
FORECAST:
The big WNW on Sunday only drops slightly into Monday- and then the rain starts. Looks like we have a couple storms slamming into Central CA next week- so conditions will be suspect on Monday and a mess by Tuesday.
On a side note- we have a small SW swell headed our way for Monday but it will most likely get lost in the big WNW.
We then have a reinforcing WNW wind/groundswell on Tuesday for more double overhead surf- albeit junky. Once the storm exits mid-week, we'll have dirty water again and dropping surf.
On it's heels though, models show another storm potentially moving in next weekend- which would bring more overhead surf- but windy conditions of course. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter.
WEATHER:
As mentioned above, stormy weather is on its way- but we'll have nice weather in the interim. Here's what we have on tap though for the next week:
- Friday: Mostly sunny skies. Temps 63/50.
- Saturday/Sunday: Partly sunny. Temps 63/49.
- Monday: Increasing showers. Temps 62/52.
- Tuesday: Rain and wind. Temps 62/52.
- Wednesday: Decreasing showers. Temps 60/50.
- Thursday: Mostly sunny. Temps 62/52.
- Rain again next weekend?...
BEST BET:
Might need to turn on the Emergency Broadcasting System on Sunday:
- Friday with new fun WNW.
- Sunday with bombing surf (not as big as January's behemoths, but I'll take it).
- Maybe next Friday IF... the rain can hold off until Saturday.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Alas, all good things must come to an end. After 3 La Nina crummy winters for surf in 2020/21, 2021/22, and 2022/23, models predict our current 2023/24 El Nino will transition fairly quickly to La Nina THIS spring. Who's ready for cold water this summer, MIA hurricanes, and waist high windswell next winter? Not me. Here's what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had to say about the recent cooling waters in the equatorial Pacific...
On a brisk early February morning, all of us El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasters emerged from our burrows and saw our shadows. That can mean only one thing: conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña within the next six months. Yes, the February ENSO Outlook officially announces that we are in a La Niña Watch, even while, at the current moment, the Pacific Ocean remains in an El Niño (this is simultaneous to the ongoing El Niño Advisory—here is an explainer to help sort it out). The outlook gives a 79% chance that El Niño will transition to ENSO-Neutral by the April–June period, and then a 55% chance the Pacific transitions into La Niña in June–August. Confused? I’ll explain it all without the help of any prognosticating rodents (take THAT, Punxsutawney Phil).
On a brisk early February morning, all of us El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasters emerged from our burrows and saw our shadows. That can mean only one thing: conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña within the next six months. Yes, the February ENSO Outlook officially announces that we are in a La Niña Watch, even while, at the current moment, the Pacific Ocean remains in an El Niño (this is simultaneous to the ongoing El Niño Advisory—here is an explainer to help sort it out). The outlook gives a 79% chance that El Niño will transition to ENSO-Neutral by the April–June period, and then a 55% chance the Pacific transitions into La Niña in June–August. Confused? I’ll explain it all without the help of any prognosticating rodents (take THAT, Punxsutawney Phil).
El Niño’s current status
Let’s start with the here and now. At the current moment, El Niño remains across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In January, sea surface temperatures remained above average across most of the Pacific, though temperatures fell a bit across the eastern and central Pacific. Monthly values in the Niño-3.4 region (the key tropical Pacific monitoring region for ENSO and the basis for the Oceanic Niño Index (see below) dropped from just over 2°C above average in December 2023 to 1.87°C above average in January 2024. Overall, the most recent Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) value—how NOAA classifies the strength of events—for November–January places this event’s peak strength at ~2°C, or the fifth highest on records back to 1950.
Atmospherically, El Niño weakened a bit as well over the last month. Remember, El Niño is an ocean-atmospheric phenomenon. During El Niño, the atmosphere over the tropics—the Walker Circulation—gets all jumbled up. The result in the Pacific is weakened trade winds, an increase in thunderstorm activity near the Dateline, and a reduction in thunderstorms across the Western Pacific (also, usually, across the Amazon). However, in January, the trade winds were closer to average across the equatorial Pacific, and while thunderstorm activity remained a bit elevated near the Dateline, it was instead closer to average across Indonesia in the western Pacific.
Put together, it looks clear that this El Niño event is past its peak. However, it’s important to remember that El Niño’s impacts on global temperature and precipitation can linger through April.
Is that all?
While everything I said above is all fine for the surface, the BIG story is happening underneath the sea surface in the Pacific. Averaged across the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean, ocean temperatures in the upper 300 meters returned to near-average for the first time in almost a year. And it’s clear that cooler-than-average ocean waters are widespread at depth and expanding eastward, even while above-average temperatures persist closer to the surface in the central/eastern Pacific.
Where is this all going?
That’s the million-dollar question. The seasonal prediction models that forecasters look to for guidance are pretty confident in a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral sometime during the northern hemisphere spring 2024. Following that, there is a general consensus among the models that La Niña will follow during the summer. Now when it comes to transitions, there is always a bit of uncertainty on the exact timing, as an El Niño can end in a hurry. After all, the current outlook has only a two-season difference between the end of El Niño (79% chance in April-June), and the start of La Niña (55% chance in June-August). And some of the influencers of that transition can be atmospheric patterns that are not forecastable this early on, like the Madden-Julian Oscillation or random weather events.
How common are transitions from El Niño to La Niña?
Going back to 1950, over half of the El Niño events were followed shortly thereafter by a transition to La Niña (after a brief period of time in ENSO-Neutral). So, it would not be at all uncommon to see this sort of potential outcome this year.
Breaking that down even more by looking at similar strong El Niños, five of the eight events since 1950 were followed by a La Niña. And that transition happened rapidly. Two years (1973 and 1998) had only one 3-month period of ENSO-Neutral conditions before switching to La Niña. Two years (1983, 2010) had two 3-month periods of ENSO-Neutral in between. And 2015 had three 3-month periods.
Suffice to say, the historical record suggests that if the equatorial Pacific moves from a strong El Niño into a La Niña, it doesn’t seem to waste its time.
That’s the million-dollar question. The seasonal prediction models that forecasters look to for guidance are pretty confident in a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral sometime during the northern hemisphere spring 2024. Following that, there is a general consensus among the models that La Niña will follow during the summer. Now when it comes to transitions, there is always a bit of uncertainty on the exact timing, as an El Niño can end in a hurry. After all, the current outlook has only a two-season difference between the end of El Niño (79% chance in April-June), and the start of La Niña (55% chance in June-August). And some of the influencers of that transition can be atmospheric patterns that are not forecastable this early on, like the Madden-Julian Oscillation or random weather events.
How common are transitions from El Niño to La Niña?
Going back to 1950, over half of the El Niño events were followed shortly thereafter by a transition to La Niña (after a brief period of time in ENSO-Neutral). So, it would not be at all uncommon to see this sort of potential outcome this year.
Breaking that down even more by looking at similar strong El Niños, five of the eight events since 1950 were followed by a La Niña. And that transition happened rapidly. Two years (1973 and 1998) had only one 3-month period of ENSO-Neutral conditions before switching to La Niña. Two years (1983, 2010) had two 3-month periods of ENSO-Neutral in between. And 2015 had three 3-month periods.
Suffice to say, the historical record suggests that if the equatorial Pacific moves from a strong El Niño into a La Niña, it doesn’t seem to waste its time.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
I'm pretty sure if Cha-Ka from Land of the Lost was a surfer, he'd be a local at this spot.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
C-suite Level
Performing At The Sphere Next Month
Let's Just Cut To The Chase And Award Me The Eddie
Michael W. Glenn
C-suite Level
Performing At The Sphere Next Month
Let's Just Cut To The Chase And Award Me The Eddie
