Mellow Is Good.
SURF:
In our world of dog eat dog- mellow is a welcome sight for sore eyes. After countless storms, big surf, and wind, it's nice to take a breather around here (considering our sand and hillsides have washed away). For this weekend, we have a new swell- on the small side- but we we will have great weather.
Surf starts out small on Friday (with light offshore winds) then picks up slightly by sunset for waist high+ sets and chest high in SD. That lasts into Saturday- then drops on Sunday to waist high. And here’s the sun, tides, and water temps for the upcoming weekend:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 6:21 AM sunrise
- 5:42 PM sunset
- Water temps are 60 incredibly enough (thanks El Nino!)
- And not much in the way of tides this weekend:
- about 3' at sunrise
- over 5' mid-morning
- about -0.5' late afternoon
- and back to 1' at sunset
FORECAST:
Next week gets a little iffy as an average storm takes aim at So-Cal. Monday starts off small then starts to pick up in the afternoon as rain starts. Tuesday should have shoulder high NW wind/groundswell- but messy conditions.
The 2nd half of the week is sunny and small- then maybe another storm and head high NW returns for the weekend. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on Twitter.
WEATHER:
Great weather is in store this weekend before rain returns next week. Here's what we have on tap though for the next week:
- Friday: Sunny and offshore in the AM. Temps 68/53.
- Saturday: Sunny. Temps 67/53.
- Sunday: Increasing low clouds. Temps 65/52.
- Monday: Chance of rain and wind. Temps 61/52.
- Tuesday: Showers. Temps 59/46.
- Wednesday: Sunny and cool. Temps 62/47.
- Thursday: Sunny. Temps 63/50.
- Rain again next weekend?...
BEST BET:
Saturday if you like clean surf:
- Saturday with the peak of the small W swell and nice conditions.
- Tuesday with peaking storm surf (at least no one will be out)
- And maybe next weekend if it's not stormy.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
As you've seen over the past decade, the kelp forests off the California coast have slowly disappeared. But not entirely. Seems as though kelp is fairly resilient. But I'm getting ahead of myself. Why did the kelp go away in the first place? Here's research led by Monterey Bay Aquarium and the University of California, Santa Cruz...
New research reveals that denser, and more sheltered, kelp forests can withstand serious stressors amid warming ocean temperatures. Published in Proceedings of the Royal Society B, the study also offers the first comprehensive assessment of how declines in kelp abundance affected marine algae, invertebrates, and fishes living in Monterey Bay. The study comes after a multi-year marine heatwave -- the product of a 2014 'blob' of warm water prolonged by a 2015-2016 El Niño event -- bathed the North American west coast with sweltering sea temperatures.
It all started a decade ago when a triple-whammy of stressors -- the large marine heatwave, a sea star die-off, and a sea urchin outbreak -- led to pronounced declines in kelp abundance on California's central coast. Using a fourteen-year dataset, researchers discovered those events caused a 51% decline on average in kelp forest density in the years following the heatwave (2017-2020 vs. 2007-2013). As of 2020, the decline had increased to 72%. Some kelp forests, though, made it through these extreme events.
"We found that larger stands of giant kelp prevented shifts in sea urchin foraging behavior, and these persistent forests were better at withstanding multiple stressors," said Dr. Joshua Smith, the study's lead author and Ocean Conservation Research Scientist at Monterey Bay Aquarium.
"Something that surprised us was that persistent kelp forests were located in areas that are typically less productive. These persistent forests had a gradual reef slope and protection from wave exposure, which enabled them to become densely packed with kelp prior to the marine heatwave." While this study identified the importance of habitat features in driving forest persistence, predators can also help the kelp.
Another recent Monterey Bay Aquarium study reinforced the role that sea otters play in preventing kelp declines by eating up sea urchins. Where kelp patches were more exposed and less dense, the sudden rise of sea urchins in 2014 led many kelp forests to become 'barrens' -- areas scoured by hungry sea urchins along the rocky reef. Smith and co-authors examined changes in species composition across the mosaic of barrens and persistent forests to untangle how kelp loss impacts the broader ecosystem.
"While some kelp forests have endured, the structure of the ecological communities in the barren areas have yet to return to their pre-2013 state," Smith added. "Across the region, the number of species did not decline, but changes in their relative abundances led to an overall decline in species diversity, most notably for marine algae and kelp-associated invertebrates." With less kelp and other macroalgae around, the study noted a disproportionate increase in animals that eat plankton, such as barnacles, scallops, tube snails, and planktivorous fishes. The study sought to understand the effects and resulting consequences of the marine heatwave and is part of Monterey Bay Aquarium's larger effort to understand kelp recovery and restoration mechanisms. Globally, kelp has been declining for a half-century, and at an average rate of 1.8% a year.
With over half of the ocean surface experiencing extreme marine heat every year since 2014, warming ocean temperatures present a serious threat to cold-water species like kelp. As kelp forests and other marine ecosystems around the world face increasing threats associated with climate change, conservation of ecosystems, like kelp forests, and predators, like sea otters, can mitigate the impacts of extreme events.
"This study offers important insights to help inform strategies for protecting areas where kelp can persist on its own, and siting for kelp restoration efforts, here in California and around the world," said Dr. Pete Raimondi, a marine ecologist at UC Santa Cruz who was not a co-author on the study.
New research reveals that denser, and more sheltered, kelp forests can withstand serious stressors amid warming ocean temperatures. Published in Proceedings of the Royal Society B, the study also offers the first comprehensive assessment of how declines in kelp abundance affected marine algae, invertebrates, and fishes living in Monterey Bay. The study comes after a multi-year marine heatwave -- the product of a 2014 'blob' of warm water prolonged by a 2015-2016 El Niño event -- bathed the North American west coast with sweltering sea temperatures.
It all started a decade ago when a triple-whammy of stressors -- the large marine heatwave, a sea star die-off, and a sea urchin outbreak -- led to pronounced declines in kelp abundance on California's central coast. Using a fourteen-year dataset, researchers discovered those events caused a 51% decline on average in kelp forest density in the years following the heatwave (2017-2020 vs. 2007-2013). As of 2020, the decline had increased to 72%. Some kelp forests, though, made it through these extreme events.
"We found that larger stands of giant kelp prevented shifts in sea urchin foraging behavior, and these persistent forests were better at withstanding multiple stressors," said Dr. Joshua Smith, the study's lead author and Ocean Conservation Research Scientist at Monterey Bay Aquarium.
"Something that surprised us was that persistent kelp forests were located in areas that are typically less productive. These persistent forests had a gradual reef slope and protection from wave exposure, which enabled them to become densely packed with kelp prior to the marine heatwave." While this study identified the importance of habitat features in driving forest persistence, predators can also help the kelp.
Another recent Monterey Bay Aquarium study reinforced the role that sea otters play in preventing kelp declines by eating up sea urchins. Where kelp patches were more exposed and less dense, the sudden rise of sea urchins in 2014 led many kelp forests to become 'barrens' -- areas scoured by hungry sea urchins along the rocky reef. Smith and co-authors examined changes in species composition across the mosaic of barrens and persistent forests to untangle how kelp loss impacts the broader ecosystem.
"While some kelp forests have endured, the structure of the ecological communities in the barren areas have yet to return to their pre-2013 state," Smith added. "Across the region, the number of species did not decline, but changes in their relative abundances led to an overall decline in species diversity, most notably for marine algae and kelp-associated invertebrates." With less kelp and other macroalgae around, the study noted a disproportionate increase in animals that eat plankton, such as barnacles, scallops, tube snails, and planktivorous fishes. The study sought to understand the effects and resulting consequences of the marine heatwave and is part of Monterey Bay Aquarium's larger effort to understand kelp recovery and restoration mechanisms. Globally, kelp has been declining for a half-century, and at an average rate of 1.8% a year.
With over half of the ocean surface experiencing extreme marine heat every year since 2014, warming ocean temperatures present a serious threat to cold-water species like kelp. As kelp forests and other marine ecosystems around the world face increasing threats associated with climate change, conservation of ecosystems, like kelp forests, and predators, like sea otters, can mitigate the impacts of extreme events.
"This study offers important insights to help inform strategies for protecting areas where kelp can persist on its own, and siting for kelp restoration efforts, here in California and around the world," said Dr. Pete Raimondi, a marine ecologist at UC Santa Cruz who was not a co-author on the study.
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Where is everybody?! Oh, that's right- those pesky orcas- the only known predators of Great Whites- are scaring everyone away. You can have it.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Was An American Idol Before American Idol
Livin' The Dream
Caught In The Middle Of A Bidding War Between Gotcha And Op
Michael W. Glenn
Was An American Idol Before American Idol
Livin' The Dream
Caught In The Middle Of A Bidding War Between Gotcha And Op
