Windy Then Wavey.
SURF:
May Gray is in full effect! The good news about all these clouds and SW winds is that it's kicked up our NW windswell this week. Without any real swells from the southern hemi, I'm gratefull we at least have something to ride. If you got on it early this weekend, you most likely surfed fun chest high surf before the winds kicked in. For the weekend, we have more of the same on Friday before the tail end of a low pressure moves by to the N of us Saturday/Sunday.
As it does, the winds will strengthen along our shores and bumpy shoulder high+ NW windswell will fill in. Good news: we got surf. Bad news: it will be bumpy. And here’s the sun, tides, and water temps for the upcoming weekend:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 5:58 AM sunrise
- 7:33 PM sunset
- Water temps are hovering around 63 thanks to the SW wind. BUT... it may drop if the winds switch to the NW from the departing cold front on Sunday.
- And not much change in tides this weekend:
- 4.5' at sunrise
- down to 0' at lunch
- and back up to 4' at sunrise
FORECAST:
Once the cold front exits the region this weekend, we're left with sunny skies and building SW swell. Finally. A good storm last week has sent SW swell our way and we should start seeing chest high surf late Monday.
The swell kicks in Tuesday/Wednesday for head high surf towards N County SD along with more NW windswell. Next weekend looks smaller but more storms are lining up in Antarctica. If they do, we could see more shoulder high+ SW mid-month. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on X (Twitter).
WEATHER:
Really can't complain about the showers and cooler weather. Better than brown hillsides and drought this summer. As mentioned above, we've got a weak cold front headed our way for Saturday afternoon in to Sunday morning. Not a real rain maker, but we should expect 1/10". And after that- back to springtime conditions next week. Here's what we have on tap for the next several days:
- Friday: May Gray. Temps 68/55.
- Saturday: Increasing winds and clouds. Showers late. Temps 66/56.
- Sunday: Showers early and breezy. Mostly sunny in the afternoon. Temps 61/50.
- Monday and beyond: Morning low clouds and afternoon sun. Temps 68/55
BEST BET:
- Tuesday/Wednesday with good SW and a touch of NW windswell.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
As our summer hurricane season is quickly approaching, two scientists are already thinking about going full Spinal Tap and turning the volume up to 11. Currently the preferred Saffir-Simpson Scale only goes to 5 with hurricane winds in excess of 157 mph, but if our planet keeps warming up, we're going to have to turn it up to 6. Here's the L.A. Times with more details:
In 1973, the National Hurricane Center introduced the Saffir-Simpson scale, a five-category rating system that classified hurricanes by wind intensity. At the bottom of the scale was Category 1, for storms with sustained winds of 74 to 95 mph. At the top was Category 5, for disasters with winds of 157 mph or more.
In the half-century since the scale’s debut, land and ocean temperatures have steadily risen as a result of greenhouse gas emissions. Hurricanes have become more intense, with stronger winds and heavier rainfall. This week a research team at the University of Pennsylvania led by climate scientist Michael Mann predicted that the North Atlantic will see an unprecedented 33 named tropical cyclones from June 1 to Nov. 30.
With catastrophic storms regularly blowing past the 157-mph threshold, some scientists argue, the Saffir-Simpson scale no longer adequately conveys the threat the biggest hurricanes present. Earlier this year, two climate scientists published a paper that compared historical storm activity to a hypothetical version of the Saffir-Simpson scale that included a Category 6, for storms with sustained winds of 192 mph or more.
Of the 197 hurricanes classified as Category 5 from 1980 to 2021, five fit the description of a hypothetical Category 6 hurricane: Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, Hurricane Patricia in 2015, Typhoon Meranti in 2016, Typhoon Goni in 2020 and Typhoon Surigae in 2021.
Patricia, which made landfall near Jalisco, Mexico, in October 2015, is the most powerful tropical cyclone ever recorded in terms of maximum sustained winds. (While the paper looked at global storms, only storms in the Atlantic Ocean and the northern Pacific Ocean east of the International Date Line are officially ranked on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Other parts of the world use different classification systems.)
In 1973, the National Hurricane Center introduced the Saffir-Simpson scale, a five-category rating system that classified hurricanes by wind intensity. At the bottom of the scale was Category 1, for storms with sustained winds of 74 to 95 mph. At the top was Category 5, for disasters with winds of 157 mph or more.
In the half-century since the scale’s debut, land and ocean temperatures have steadily risen as a result of greenhouse gas emissions. Hurricanes have become more intense, with stronger winds and heavier rainfall. This week a research team at the University of Pennsylvania led by climate scientist Michael Mann predicted that the North Atlantic will see an unprecedented 33 named tropical cyclones from June 1 to Nov. 30.
With catastrophic storms regularly blowing past the 157-mph threshold, some scientists argue, the Saffir-Simpson scale no longer adequately conveys the threat the biggest hurricanes present. Earlier this year, two climate scientists published a paper that compared historical storm activity to a hypothetical version of the Saffir-Simpson scale that included a Category 6, for storms with sustained winds of 192 mph or more.
Of the 197 hurricanes classified as Category 5 from 1980 to 2021, five fit the description of a hypothetical Category 6 hurricane: Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, Hurricane Patricia in 2015, Typhoon Meranti in 2016, Typhoon Goni in 2020 and Typhoon Surigae in 2021.
Patricia, which made landfall near Jalisco, Mexico, in October 2015, is the most powerful tropical cyclone ever recorded in terms of maximum sustained winds. (While the paper looked at global storms, only storms in the Atlantic Ocean and the northern Pacific Ocean east of the International Date Line are officially ranked on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Other parts of the world use different classification systems.)
Though the storm had weakened to a Category 4 by the time it made landfall, its sustained winds over the Pacific Ocean hit 215 mph. “That’s kind of incomprehensible,” said Michael F. Wehner, a senior scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and co-author of the Category 6 paper. “That's faster than a racing car in a straightaway. It’s a new and dangerous world.”
In their paper, which was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Wehner and co-author James P. Kossin of the University of Wisconsin–Madison did not explicitly call for the adoption of a Category 6, primarily because the scale is quickly being supplanted by other measurement tools that more accurately gauge the hazard of a specific storm.
“The Saffir-Simpson scale is not all that good for warning the public of the impending danger of a storm,” Wehner said.The category scale measures only sustained wind speeds, which is just one of the threats a major storm presents. Of the 455 direct fatalities in the U.S. due to hurricanes from 2013 to 2023 — a figure that excludes deaths from 2017’s Hurricane Maria — less than 15% were caused by wind, National Hurricane Center director Mike Brennan said during a recent public meeting. The rest were caused by storm surges, flooding and rip tides. The Saffir-Simpson scale is a relic of an earlier age in forecasting, Brennan said.
“Thirty years ago, that's basically all we could tell you about a hurricane, is how strong it was right now. We couldn't really tell you much about where it was going to go, or how strong it was going to be, or what the hazards were going to look like,” Brennan said during the meeting, which was organized by the American Meteorological Society. “We can tell people a lot more than that now.” He confirmed the National Hurricane Center has no plans to introduce a Category 6, primarily because it is already trying “to not emphasize the scale very much,” Brennan said. Other meteorologists said that's the right call.
“I don't see the value in it at this time,” said Mark Bourassa, a meteorologist at Florida State University’s Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies. “There are other issues that could be better addressed, like the spatial extent of the storm and storm surge, that would convey more useful information [and] help with emergency management as well as individual people's decisions.”
Simplistic as they are, Herbert Saffir and Robert Simpson’s categories are the first thing many people think of when they try to grasp the scale of a storm. In that sense, the scale’s persistence over the years helps people understand how much the climate has changed since its introduction. “What the Saffir-Simpson scale is good for is quantifying, showing, that the most intense storms are becoming more intense because of climate change,” Wehner said. “It's not like it used to be.”
BEST OF THE BLOG:
Our 9th annual charity golf tournament- sponsored by Venture LLP- is just TWO WEEKS AWAY! For those of you playing Goat Hill on Friday, May 17th, here are the details:
- Check in from 7-7:30 AM
- A quick word from our sponsors at 7:45 AM
- Tee off at 8 AM!
- Hit the clubhouse patio for lunch with Señor Grubby's around 12:30 PM
- Awards ceremony, auction, and raffle 1-2 PM
- And then kick back and enjoy the rest of your Friday!
This year we'll be benefitting Foster the Earth, an organization dedicated to helping vulnerable children and young adults in the foster care system through exposure to the great outdoors. And if you didn't have a chance to sign up but still want to support your community, we still have a couple spots left for hole sponsorships and are always in need of auction/raffle items, so please reach out to northcountyboardmeeting@gmail.com. And thank you to our ever growing list of generous sponsors:
- Venture LLP
- Sun Bum
- Yeti
- Best Pizza
- Surf Ride
- Foundation Laboratory
- S & A Publishing
- Logicopy
- ALOHA Collection
- Evnroll Putters
- North County Board Meeting
- Electra Bicycles
- Seawise Financial
- The Cottage Restaurant
- payrollHUB
- Linksoul
- Sam Ross
- Venture LLP
- Melin
- Inn at Rancho Santa Fe
- Acrisure Insurance
- payrollHUB
- David Taxer eXp Realty
- Chris Hendricks/Fox Law, APC
- Logicopy
- OluKai
- The Harth Team
- C3Bank
- Agency 73
- Surfhouse
- Señor Grubby's
- Coffee Coffee
- Phillips + Co Real Estate
PIC OF THE WEEK:
Now, sitting on the beach and reading a book while getting a tan may be fine and dandy, but I'd rather be getting pitted in the shore break on this gem. Priorities people.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Loyal
About To Launch My App 'TokTik'
I Spend WAAAAAY Too Much Time Thinking About Surfing
Michael W. Glenn
Loyal
About To Launch My App 'TokTik'
I Spend WAAAAAY Too Much Time Thinking About Surfing
