Ground vs. Wind vs. Ground
SURF:
What a week of surf- and the May Gray wasn't as bad as advertised either. Our good southern hemi groundswell is slowly being replaced today by NW windswell. For tomorrow, look for waist high surf with chest high sets from the combo swells.
By Saturday, the SW will be tiny while the NW windswell peaks to the chest high range. That drops like a rock Saturday night and by Sunday we're back to waist high surf. And here’s the sun, tides, and water temps for the upcoming weekend:
- Sunrise and sunset:
- 5:43 AM sunrise
- 7:48 PM sunset
- Water temps are hanging on to 63. Even though we're headed towards a La Nina summer (i.e. colder than average water temps), at least we haven't had the persistent NW winds which plagued last summer and nullified our anticipated warm 'El Nino' waters.
- And not much change in tides again this weekend:
- about 1' at sunrise
- oddly enough, just about 3' in the afternoons
- and up slightly to 4.5' at sunset
FORECAST:
Not much in the near term as the N and S Pacific have taken a breather recently. Just look for waist high sets at best from a couple small swells Monday and Wednesday.
Models do though show the southern hemisphere coming back to life this weekend which should give us fun shoulder high SW towards the end of the month...
and then another shoulder high SW around June 4th. If anything changes between now and then, make sure to follow North County Surf on X (Twitter). On a side note, looks the beginning of the Teahupoo contest should have good surf this weekend and bombing surf towards the end of the event window 5/29-31. Make sure to watch the worldsurfleague.com for all the drama!
WEATHER:
The expected May Gray the last few days never truly materialized and we had sunny weather- an oddity this time of year. The clouds will return though and look to stick around the next couple days. Good news though is that we should see a little more sun in the afternoons Sunday/Monday. The rest of next week looks to be fairly tame with night/morning low clouds and partly sunny afternoons. Here's what's in store:
- Friday: Overcast and drizzle at night. Temps 65/55
- Saturday: Chance of sun in the afternoon. Temps 67/55.
- Sunday/Monday. Sunny in the afternoon. Temps 70/60
- Tuesday and beyond: Night/morning low clouds, partly sunny afternoons. Temps 70/60.
BEST BET:
- Saturday with chest high NW windswell.
- Next weekend with fun SW.
NEWS OF THE WEEK:
Today might be my favorite day of the year as this is when NOAA comes out with their Eastern Pacific Hurricane forecast. Nerd alert! No shame here. As mentioned in previous THE Surf Reports, looks like we're headed towards a La Nina summer. Bad news for the West Coast and good news (good being a relative term when destruction is involved) for the East Coast. As our water temps cool here along the West Coast, the lack of winds on the East Coast from the building La Nina help keep the wind shear to a minimum and hurricane formation to a maximum. In fact, NOAA's Atlantic Hurricane forecast is a doozy:
- A whopping 17-25 named storms (that's 1 a week over a 6 month period)
- 8-13 hurricanes (every other week)
- AND... unfortunately 4-7 major hurricanes. Great for surf, awful for cities.
But let's get back on track here and talk about OUR Eastern Pacific hurricane season which started May 15th and ends November 30th. The cooler than expected water temps off the California, Baja, and Mainland Mexico coasts will limit the energy to form hurricanes. NOAA's forecast calls for:
- 11-17 named storms
- 4-9 hurricanes
- and only 1-4 major hurricanes
To put that into perspective, let's say we see the worst case scenario of 11 named storms, 4 of those are hurricanes, and just 1 is a major hurricane. All of those would have to be in our swell window (i.e. out of Baja's shadow) AND move towards us BEFORE dying off in California's cooler waters. That's asking A LOT. But let's look at the brightside:
- We had a ton of NW wind off our coast last year and our water temps were colder than average. Wearing trunks was out of the question- in an El Nino year! So far (knock on wood), we've had typical SW wind and our water temps are manageable. Hopefully this summer we'll see some mid-70's.
- Bottom line is, we want surf. If it's not going to come from the tropics, then let's hope the southern hemisphere can provide. And it's been good so far this spring. Could we see our luck last into summer?
Regardless of the outcome, let's expect the worst and hope for the best when it comes to hurricane surf!
PIC OF THE WEEK:
While us Left Coast surfers may be riding our grovelers this August, our brethren from Miami to Montauk may be staring this down instead. Let's just hope for everyone's sake, the storms that make these gems stay well offshore.
Keep Surfing,
Michael W. Glenn
Pacesetter
Mayor of Leucadia
Leader of the Free(surf) World
